Monday, May 04, 2009
BBC's angle on the CEBR
BBC: Home values 'down 28% from peak'
Calling the bottom of the market was "slightly premature" said the one of the CEBR report's authors, Benjamin Williamson.
"Worsening conditions in the labour market and the wider economy seem likely to counter-balance historically low interest rates and slowly improving credit conditions," he added.
The downturn in the building of new houses over the past 18 months could lead to "significant" undersupply in the medium term, he added, which may trigger stronger growth in house prices towards 2012 or 2013.
Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 02:56 PM (1472 views) Add Comment
23 Comments
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1. Chris said...
UK personal debt at end march 09 is 1.459 trillion (reference credit action debt statistics) and is UP on Feb 09 but only by 1 billion. So much for people paying off their debts the total is still going up although much, much more slowly which partially explains why the economy is tanking. What do you think will happen to the economy and house prices when they actually do get round to paying down the debt? Also a report recently said there are around 1 million empty properties in England and wales alone so why the need to build more as there is no shortage.
Based on the debt, the empty properties and the east europeans returning home can anyone explain where a GENUINE recovery is going to come from for the UK economy since the 'boom' was an illusion anyway? A recovery that is not based on printing masses of money and increasing the debt I mean....
2. paul said...
Its all very imprecise though.
I'm amazed the BBC gets away with giving pseudo statistics credence in order to push a political agenda.
3. sybil13 said...
Well YOU ALL KNOW BY NOW by thoughts about the new CEBR report. Suggest you do a search for :CEBR 10%: on Yahoo you will get a title of "EXPECT THE HOUSING MARKET TO CRASH SOON". It is a report about the collapse in tax revenues. A recent article said:
"With the cost of the banking bailout, and the collapse of tax revenues from the financial sector, the Treasury is now expecting unprecedented public deficits over the next decade - but the IMF still expects things to get even worse, with debt peaking at more than 80% of GDP. "
It is hard to see how CEBR could have changed their minds with regards 40% falls when even the CML said last week,"these green shoots have not roots". Lending will get tighter and tighter , and as you all know by now CEBR said that without approvals doubling prices would fall 40% .
*
4. letthemfall said...
If there are strong price increases in future it is unlikely to have much to do with supply (a word of indeterminate meaning in this context) but a continuation of the British belief in the absolute value of housing. Will it continue?
5. Tayaramecanici said...
Growth as the report mentions is presently negative due to increased redundancies, whilst predicting the increases in house prices from 2012-2013 the report tends to ignore that those still in jobs have taken a salary drop in most cases. In the IT industry which has contributed the largest number of immigrants the drop has been upto 50%, effectively this lot will either re-migrate elsewhere or to their homelands or be permanently out priced from the market.
IMO the houseprices will be a non issue by 2012-2013 when survival will be the name of the game.
6. icarus said...
When will these 'economists' tell us something we don't know? 'Alphabet monkeys who bend with the wind' is what flashman appropriately called their likes.
The BBC used to be the guardian of grammar and syntax but you need only to look at where the word 'only' is placed in this 'writer's' sentences to realise that this is no longer so. (Sorry about that - it's just that I'm fed up with reading this cr@p.)
7. britishblue said...
The CEBR have discredited themselves enough to not give any credence to the article. However on point about the 'housing recovery seems to be emerging in many articles
''The downturn in the building of new houses over the past 18 months could lead to "significant" undersupply in the medium term, he added''
Not necessarily so! Britain has attracted a huge amount of immigrants in the last 6 years leading to pressure on housing. This was when the pound was in its 'bubble mode,' and wages achieved here were more attractive than other areas of Europe. Many immigrants are now going home and there is no new swathes of new european countries that are going to lead to a new rush of immigration. the pound bubble has burst just like the housing bubble.
Secondly expect to see much more pressure on using second homes, uninhabited home, etc in the last year of the Labour government. Plus housing assocations being subsidised to buy stock of housing and a keynesian approach to building more social housing. It might be labour's last year for many years so expect to see some of their more generic policies implemented.
With around 1 million uninhabited homes in the UK i would be very surprised if this is not brought into the political mix in the next twelve months and just like uninhabited commercial buildings taxation put in place to penalise this.
8. mander said...
Obviously they would love to have prices stabilised especially people who own property already. But with houses is either going up or down. Will the house prices in the UK stabilise while around the world houses are getting close to 3.5 earnings?
9. mytimeisnigh said...
What about when interest rates rise, even if it is only to 3%....they are currently set at an artificially low and unsustainable rate...it can't go on indefinately.
10. letthemfall said...
icarus
I find three onlys, but see no grammatical flaws there. As for monkeys - well, who you quote could equally have that turned on himself, if for different reasons. Most journalists write technically well enough; it is the lack of content and depth that I find so wearisome.
11. icarus said...
letthemfall - I don't want to make an issue of this but e.g. 'prices would only rise by 6%' should read 'prices would rise only by 6%'.
12. growler said...
9) like "to boldly go" rather than "to go boldly" - a split verb phrase. But language has the habit of changing: Recall "you and I" has become "you and me" - and "me" is now accepted OK.
Subject chnage back to HPC: It's probably ancient now, but I've just got hold of Vince Cables book on the crash. A good piece and one to read. CEBR is just another economics "exam board" - they all like to have plenty of candidates with A grades. Look closely, and the quality and consistency is not what it used to be...
13. icarus said...
growler - please don't make a point and then imply that a move on to something else is called for. 'You and I' is correct if it is the subject (nominative case) and 'you and me' is correct if it is the object (accusative case). They are both incorrect if used otherwise. There as no 'fashion' question here. Split infinitives are different - they are regarded as unstylish rather than incorrect. The meaning of a sentence can change depending on where the word 'only' is placed; it's an adverb that should be placed as close as possible to what it modifies.
If Joyce in 'Finnegan's Wake' bends the rules that's fine but there's no reason for purely technical writing to deviate from the rules.
I didn't want to get into this but blogs have a habit of.......
14. mytimeisnigh said...
In terms of nominative, accusative and dative, the Germans seem to be much more sorted and pedantically accurate than we are. Thank god we are not Russian, otherwise we would be here all day!
15. letthemfall said...
But then "only rise" is no different to "rise only" on closeness. A matter of style more than meaning really.
16. icarus said...
The group only sang the psalms.
The group sang only the psalms.
In the first the group sang the psalms but didn't do anything else, such as accompany them with musical instruments.
In the second the group didn't sing anything other than the psalms but it may have accompanied them with musical instruments.
It's not pedantry, it's meaning.
17. letthemfall said...
One can ascribe this difference of meaning in your psalm example, though I feel it is a touch moot, but I don't think there is any ambiguity between the two versions in the BBC example.
18. icarus said...
It isn't moot, and the structure/logic is the same as in the BBC example. My original point was that economists reports are usually bland and that the reporting of their conclusions doesn't bring them to life. This offering was reported by the BBC and I merely pointed out that sloppy English doesn't help. I intimated in my first post that I didn't want to get dragged into a grammatical discussion.
19. inbreda said...
wtf?
20. str 2007 said...
Inbreda
minussceptic, nae spaspheric to your pericobobulations.
You should be proud to be in such well educated company.
Wasn't sure if I'd accidentally tuned into The Sunday Worship Blog or an Open University Masters lesson in communication.
Hope I didn't make any spelling mistakes then !
21. letthemfall said...
icarus:
Well, it makes a change from house prices/economics discussions. I think we will just have to disagree here. The use of adverbs like only and really is influenced by idiom more than most, but I don't believe it is a grammar issue. Wonder what Fowler has to say about it. I agree with you on bland reporting though; the BBC website is not a good place to read the News.
22. letthemfall said...
str2007
You've out-erudited me there.
23. Adidey said...
Sorry to interviene but in what way is this debate about english any relevant to the HPC and the economic downturn in general?
I have been watching this site for 3-4 years and always refrained from posting anything but in recent weeks/months have noticed that this site may be going down. There are fewer relevant articles, fewer pertinent analysis and comments and it is sad.
BTW, don't have a go at my english, I am french ans english isn't my mother tongue...