Friday, May 08, 2009
Are we near the bottom yet?
BBC: Are we near the bottom yet?
BBC Two's Propertywatch is running a series of programmes on property prices and the economic downturn and would like to hear from you if you are moving soon or even just thinking about it.
In the first of four programmes we are looking at whether you think the housing market has hit the bottom or whether it still has a way to go.
Tell us your stories and experiences. Please remember to plot you location so your comment will appear on the property map.
Do you think that house prices have got further to fall? Do you think they're bottoming out? Are there signs in your area that prices are picking up or sales activity is getting busier? Are you struggling to sell and haven't seen any silver lining yet? Is now could be a good time to buy?
Posted by doomwatch @ 11:14 AM (1820 views) Add Comment
27 Comments
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1. matt_the_hat said...
Can anyone give me a reason to live in the UK compared to other countries - please I can't see any - so forget about house prices people should concentrate on their exit strategies!
2. Neo-serf said...
Fred Harrison was asked to feature on this programme.
He then told the producers the truth about how the property market is actually going to pan out.
It was more truth than they could handle so he made his excuses and left.
They had television to make. One day the Sheeple will understand TV ain't reality.
Don't waste your time with this propaganda.
3. 51ck-6-51x said...
matt_the_hat - If you're very poor, welfare & the NHS; if you're very rich, easy tax loopholes and a good location for international business; otherwise, no I cannot ;p
4. mark said...
nor us we are considering our exits at moment
5. letthemfall said...
Another property magazine programme. British obsession still not reached a bottom. Saw a trailer last night - looks pretty lightweight.
6. mark wadsworth said...
Yes, no, no, no and no.
7. letthemfall said...
...the landscape, English ale, the charming residents of the Home Counties...
(One of the above is not genuine)
8. pelethar said...
"Is now could be a good time to buy?"
Was this sentence written by a six year old? If this is the intellectual level of the programme-makers, this could be worse than Location x 3.
9. matt_the_hat said...
So with an almost universal NO to reasons for living in the UK, the next question is why would you want to buy a house and be trapped when the UK bills start landing on number 11's door mat?
10. happy mondays said...
@ 1
The M25, stealth taxes, freedom, (more for some than others) beautiful cities, great beaches,Gordon Brown, Rolling hills, The famous five, Good quality meat, fresh vegetables, healthy living, Great tv, Celebrities,The Sun and the sun, Sarah Beany,Low cost living, Reasonably priced housing, not to over populated, equal oppotunities, fair education system, House price crash, Knife & gun crimes un heard of, Ant and Dec, friendly people, Great job prospects, sound economic structure in place..To name but a few, come on MTH, Where else would you want to be? As my mum told me many moons ago,"the grass is always greener"
11. phdinbubbles said...
"BBC: Are we near the bottom yet?"
I'm optimistic that we've reached the bottom of the BBC's standard of programme making, despite the lack of any tangible evidence.
12. flashman said...
I like living in this country and I don't think the tax rises are that bad. We have had low taxation and a booming economy for almost 20 years. I'm not leaving because I have to pay a few more quid. Many other countries will tax you even more. When I lived in America, the sneaky extra taxes were hideous and health and dental insurance costs for a family makes you feel warm towards the NHS. European taxes are nothing to boast about either. When I lived in Singapore, I almost kissed the runway when I returned.
13. Gruppenfuhrer said...
1. This is clearly just nonsense.
2. Uncle Tom - if you read this do you agree with my assessment that the 1989 - 1995 period teaches us one thing. House prices are a sluggish reflection, a long tail if you will, to the economy.
3. During the last decline prices only started to rise in 1995 after 10 consecutive quarters of significant GDP growth. Only then was the market able to register growth. Fair assessment? Crude I know but the principle is solid, yes?
4. Would anyone care to speculate as to when we can expect to see the start of a period of sustained growth in GDP - because that - as I see it - will be linked to the return to house price growth.
5. Any other suggestion of a rise in house value is rather naïve analysis of a seasonally amplified bull trap.
6. Discuss.
14. another alan said...
I'm not an investor at all, but would love to know a fairly straightforward way to back my hunches that the house prices have some way to go yet. I basically want to bet/hedge against this talk of green shoots.
(I'm not interested in buying gold.)
Any ideas or thoughts guys? I know that there are quite a few knowledgeable people who post here regarding investing.
15. another alan said...
should say... the decline in house prices...
16. fancypants said...
Come on now chaps - its obvious that whoever named this episode was having a jolly good laugh "are we near the bottom yet?" sounds very much like the irritating brat in tha back seat whining "are we there yet?" when the car is barely a couple of miles down the road on a 2 hour journey to the seaside.
17. peter_2008 said...
Using common sense, the fall in price is only about halfway through. However, we don’t have common sense these days. Isaac Newton once quoted saying “I can’t calculate people’s madness.” I agree with him.
The question is not how far the house price will fall, but whether people will see
1. the risk of having absolute faith in property
2. the wider damages to economy and socity of such faith and its consequence
When obsession turns to religion (which IS what I am worried about), you can no longer reason with those brainwashed – as negotiation with suicide bombers is a specialist job.
18. rumble said...
@Matt, agreed, exit research well underway, but tricky.
19. doomwatch said...
I suggest we go to Scotland which will soon have it's own government, relatively low house prices, sustainable water supply, good agriculture and no mockney van drivers clogging up the roads.
20. house said...
Why the obsession for the bottom of the market ? Is it that once the bottom is reached means that prices will begin to rise ? Come on anyone with any experience of the last crash know that once the bottom is reached then it will stay there for many years in fact the last one lasted almost 10 years. So if anybody out there is interested in purchasing should ask the only question before purchasing "Are the prices going to go up in the next 5 years?" if the answer is no then why worry about purchasing now, wait and buy at your leisure at a later date and you may even find a property better value for money.
Does anyone disagree with this ?
My main concern is whether the pound is going to depreciate in value if so by how much annually. Does anybody have any thoughts on this.
Also if a currency is destroyed then nothing has any value except food, as this is required to survive. Any comments or disagreement. Does anybody have any experience of how Zimbawawe has survived. They must get their goods from somewhere.
21. str 2007 said...
house
I think you might be being a bit uber bear there.
Firstly if we reach the bottom and it's going to go sideways then if interest rates are low why waste money paying someone elses mortgage for them.(renting from the bank will be cheaper)
Secondly, don't be so sure things will just go sideways like the last recession.
Last time people got a real scare with interest rates at 15% and alot of repo's. Neither were there any BTL products for people to mop up the repo's with.
This time people haven't hardly been scared, they're all out looking for house bargains still.
If devaluation of currency is going to happen, then I suggest you get some debt (mortgage) as it will get eaten by the inflation that will follow.
If you are looking at your House money/deposit with regards to the pound devaluing then if you're going to buy in the uk - does it matter ?
I'd put shelter slightly higher up the list than food - particularly in Winter. But don't worry about a Zimbabawawe type inflation hear - it won't happen.
22. Chriswov said...
str 2007
house is right about food. As a farmer I can tell you that a lot of work goes into producing a steady supply of food .Recently the cost of fertilisers and fuel went up so much that it became uneconomic to go for high yields with expensive inputs that there is now a hiccup in the system(due to shortages) and cereal prices are on the up again-that yield has been lost for ever.
The point here being if farmers are messed about there ARE going to be shortages which will push up prices of food dispropotionately(elasticity?)
However as I understand things at the moment there is plenty of shelter in stock and it lasts about 70 years I think.
23. house said...
Str2007
Thank you for your comments. But what if you have hard cash in the bank earning say 4% per annum then at present it would be better to leave it there than buying a property. Many people feel that buying bricks and mortar is a safer bet as you can touch it. If as you say inflation is not going to be a problem then why bother to buy any assets at all as the 4% return appears to be very reasonable in the current market.
You appear to speak with authority that inflation may not be a big problem and I am glad that you have kind of confirmed my suspicion as a nation who is proud of it's heritage would not want to destroy it.
Also perhaps you are right that shelter may take priority in the short term but in the longer term food is paramount.
I would like to thank you for your insight on inflation and confidence and I pray that you are right.
Your comments would be appreciated.
Once again thank you.
24. str 2007 said...
House
I'm no authority on inflation or exactly how this is going to pan out.
With regard to Zimbabawa level of inflation I think that really is just for the tin pot dictatorships. I don't think the countries we are borrowing from would allow us to deflate away our debt to them like that.
The more financially apt on here may like to suggest how they'd stop us doing it. My guess would be to stop lending to us which would force us to put up interest rates to attract money.
If this was the case then yes money would be better in the bank than bricks and mortar.
I guess if oil takes off again that would put pressure on the price of food. The only real answer to a food shortage is to have a big enough garden (and time) to grow most of your own and maybe keep 20-30 chickens so you've got a few eggs to barter with.
If you have an allotment and there's a real shortage it'll just get stolen.
Largely it depends on your own situation, if you have kids and need to get settled and can comfortably afford the house you want then maybe getting on with living is the best bet.
I'm sensing that the governments and banks will do whatever is necessary to keep things afloat and as flashman was saying elsewhere today as long as the money they print/inject isn't greater than the loss then it's unlikley to be inflationary.
I think the goverments would like a little inflation to help reduce the debt mountain, but I doubt they'll be able to let it get out of control.
25. Philip9134 said...
another alan said...do " the house prices have some way to go yet" In answer to your question will house prices drop ? The question will have to be what will happen when quantitative easing stops, my feeling is that the brown stuff will really hit the fan. A real fall in the pound and a sharp rise in the interest rates will be just the start.
I also have an exit plan.
26. house said...
Str2007
Thank you for your response and I said previously, as long as the consensus is that there will be inflation but the damage will be limited then we do not have a real problem. There are some out there who are going on about hyper inflation which I doubt very much it will happen but then there is always a chance if your back is against the wall. Lets hope not and common sense will prevail. Mind you judging from the claims made by the MP's seems to suggest that they feel that every pound is worth claiming.
Once again thanks for your help. It provides comfort to know others of similar mind.
27. Mervtheswerve said...
Given the BoE saw nothing wrong with 200-250% HPI (and did nothing to act upon it) why would they lose a night's sleep if they accidently cause 200-250% inflation on baked beans?