Wednesday, Apr 08, 2009
We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock
Market Oracle: Crude Oil $200, the Price for Wasting Financial Crisis Opportunity
Matt Simmons, the brilliant energy analyst and author of Twilight in the Desert , recently told Reuters, "We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner. These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike."
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 08:28 AM (1869 views) Add Comment
30 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
IMHO $200 is conservative. We reached $147 with no USD collapse. $400 is my guess; brought about by a peak oil and USD panic with the peak prices reached around April 2010.
This is of course necessary to bring down governments/corporations and pave the way to a world of free energy and freedom for the masses.
2. pelethar said...
Are you still here?
3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
pelethar,
I never left.
4. happy mondays said...
Let's bring it on...Viva la Revolution!
5. montesquieu said...
Can I have a free Porsche to go with my free energy? that would be nice.
6. inbreda said...
"3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
pelethar,I never left."
I think he meant mentally, not physically or spiritually ;-)
7. bluebeach said...
S2R1.... I like your style and I believe that you could be right on this one.... may you long continue with your predictions
8. george monsoon said...
So if oil is still so low, why has fuel gone up 8p a litre in 1 week?
9. Bear said...
Peak oil, smeak oil. High prices would actually rise the risk premium and tempt renegade states to release some of the secret stockpiles.
All we need is an oil rich state, like Alaska or Montanna to declare sovereignty, and the world will be flush with so much oil that we won't know what to do with it. No doubt, new technology will help, but, a release in resources from the grip of the cartels is just as likely to be part of the solution.
10. Frank Bell said...
Post 8. Fuel is up 8p a litre cos you live in (Great) Britain and get shafted by extra fuel duty a few days ago plus the oil companies are a little bit short for their bonus payouts
11. mark wadsworth said...
These vague predictions are all well and good, but have you already bought oil futures?
12. icarus said...
s2r1 implies that $400 would involve a USD collapse. So the price would then be in SDRs - or something other than USDs.
13. jack c said...
George (Wednesday, April 8, 2009 10:11AM) - the latest increase in fuel duty from 1st April 2009 is a contributory factor - many people I find are unaware of this.
14. sold 2 rent 1 said...
icarus,
When I say USD collapse, I don't mean total collapse but massive devaluation against low debt economies.
The EUR should be the first currency to have a total collapse. This should boost the USD and buy some time before its final demise
All Elliott waves need to have (or have had) their final fifth wave spike then crash to zero. Intuition tells me the USD will be there (in a greatly devalued form) right up until the point just before the consciousness singularity (but that is another story, we need to get through the carnage of 2010 first).
mark wadsworth,
Oil is correcting nicely to $47 at the mo. Need to investigate the oil futures options today. Have been busy with gold/silver stocks/options analysis.
15. theboltonfury said...
Hi S2R, been a while. Hope you're good, particularly with 2 little people nipping at your ankles these days
This isn't the first time you've predicted this and been horribly wrong. Maybe some of the new guys here haven't had the pleasure of this last time round but I have. What makes you think you will be any more correct this time round?
I also noticed yesterday you have a new prediction. Full scale Nuclear War in 2010. This is a new one from you. Where have you got this from - the back of a cereal box or was at a Calleman ommission that he's just remembered
You seem quite coherent and not as crazy as some of the people that ruined this blog, which is why, much to my own detriment, I still read what you write.
16. penbat1 said...
Quite a few comentators are talking about inflation and oil only starting to spike at the end of 2010. There are huge oils surpluses at present. However the longer the downturn, the greater the supply destruction and the bigger the resultant spike will be in 2011 and 2012.
17. holding out said...
Bolton - I've got kids playing up, A problem with a retaining wall, I need a new pair of shoes and now a Nuclear bloody war - That's all I need.
18. theboltonfury said...
I need new shoes too! Personally, I am waiting until after 2010 to see if it's safe to pop my head up from behind the sofa
I remember well. =About this time last year when there were full scale predictions (and the naysayers were being firmly put down and told to pipe down and let the free thinkers express themselves) that we'd have long lost society by now, the banks would all be finished in the true sense of the word, martial law, we'd be living in the hills feasting on gold sandwiches laced with home canned veg - the list goes on.
It's tough, but please, why can't we focus on the fact that it's not actually that bad in comparison. There's always a ****ing asteroid or a rogue arab with a nuclear bomb or a disease or a top secret NWO plan on the horizon or a bloody lizard man round the corner waiting to finish us all off.
Don't tell me it's just round the corner - it always bloody is isn't it on here!
19. george monsoon said...
Jack c @ 11 said "the latest increase in fuel duty from 1st April 2009 is a contributory factor - many people I find are unaware of this."
I am well aware of the duty increase..
How does 2p duty push prices up a further 6p? It makes no sense.. the end pump users are the ones that take the 2p hit, not the producers, or the refineries? Oil isnt going up, so where do they justify the price hike.. NOT HAPPY
20. inbreda said...
yeah - but just imagine how a nuclear war will affect the average BTL property portfolio!!
21. sold 2 rent 1 said...
theboltonfury,
I am fine. The kids are good fun but knackering. Our 2 year old lad just threw his new shoes in the bin - arrrgggghhhh.
Last year, based mainly on Calleman's model I was predicting destruction in the period Nov 2007 - Nov 2008 (Fifth Night). This happened. Where I was wrong was that I assumed gold would rocket as a safe haven from the destruction.
This year I have 2 more models to add to my analysis and I also understand the Calleman model much better:
Firstly, it is near the mid-point of the Sixth Night (Nov 2009 - Nov 2010) where gold/silver peaks in Calleman's model. The proof is in previous sixth nights
National Cycle Sixth Night: 1223-1617AD (mid point 1420) gold/silver peak 1480-1490
Planetary Cycle Sixth Night: 1972-1992 (mid point 1982) gold/silver peak Jan 1980
Galactic Cycle Sixth Night: Nov 2009-Nov 2010 (mid point May 2010)
Secondly, the Armstrong model is now much clearer as he has now written a bunch of new articles. We are moving from the 8.6 year PI cycle to an 8.6 monthly internal cycle as change accelerates
Thirdly, Harry Dent has studied commodity cycles and has come up with a 29-30 year commodity cycle which should peak between late 2009 and late 2010.
These 3 models all indicate huge economic destruction and inflation in 2010.
I hope this answers your question.
22. theboltonfury said...
not really, but I thank you for trying. I think we speak in two different tongues. I was intrigued by the new prophecy of Global Thermal Nuclear war
Can't help you with the shoe problem. Kids eh!
23. sold 2 rent 1 said...
theboltonfury,
It is highly unlikely that we will have a nuclear war, but it is increasingly more likely that we will have a nuclear/chemical/biological event, a false flag that makes 9/11 and 7/7 look like a picnic.
I fully anticipate that the east/west clash will go the brink of all out war, but pull back as the masses take back their freedom from the corrupt power elite.
24. theboltonfury said...
So I'm safe to come out now?
25. letthemfall said...
s2r1: Wait till he's a teenager!! That's parenting life for you.
boltonfury: Welcome back - haven't seen anything from you for some time. The ankle biters are always with us. The odd nutter has emerged of late, which is more intrusive.
26. sold 2 rent 1 said...
theboltonfury,
"So I'm safe to come out now?"
That is a personal decision only you can make.
Does your wife know?
27. theboltonfury said...
Very good. I meant from behind the sofa, not out into the wide world of homosexuality.
I was actually tempted to laugh then. Both a cosmic wizard and a sense of humour. A rare mix
I think that's why you are so popular on here! I'm serious
28. rocket robbie said...
Hello S2r1
I think i remember you saying early April would be a good buying oppertunity for gold/silver stocks.
If the price of gold remains at current levels for the next couple of months will this make you question the charts and graphs you are making your predictions from??
As you know i like gold but i cant help thinking it will do well but over a longer time frame.
29. Russ said...
convinced me anyway, supply and demand all the way, those greedy oil barons wont be able to help themselves.
sign me up for 3000 barrels.
30. sold 2 rent 1 said...
rocket,
"If the price of gold remains at current levels for the next couple of months will this make you question the charts and graphs you are making your predictions from??"
Of course. I am always re-assessing the models for mis-interpretation.