Friday, Apr 24, 2009
UK GDP Contracts by the Most in 30 Years: Q1 -1.9%; YoY -4.1%
ONS: UK output decreases by 1.9%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 1.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, compared with a decrease of 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. The increased rate of decline in output was due to weaker services and production output.
Construction output decreased by 2.4 per cent, compared with a decrease of 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
Total production output weakened further in the first quarter, decreasing by 5.5 per cent, compared with a fall of 4.5 per cent in the previous quarter. Manufacturing output made the largest contribution to the slow down, falling by 6.2 per cent compared with a 4.9 per cent decrease in the previous quarter.
Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 10:32 AM (1795 views) Add Comment
27 Comments
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1. 51ck-6-51x said...
The Times
The BBC
Market Watch
The Guardian
2. matt_the_hat said...
Does this mean that Darlings forecasts are already blown out of the water 2 day post-budget, outstanding effort!!
3. mountain goat said...
Unfortunately we need falls to take the froth off the cappuccino economy but there is some good news in the more sustainable part of the economy: "Agriculture, forestry and fishing output increased by 0.3 per cent compared with a decrease of 0.2 per cent in the previous quarter."
4. 51ck-6-51x said...
matt - no, he forecast a fall of 3.5% this year, so far it fell 1.9%... never say never - whatever the number Darling's forecast cannot be dismissed until 01-Jan-2010 (in theory at least)... of course it does not look great for the likelihood of his prediction being accurate.
5. 51ck-6-51x said...
MG - yes,indeed. Although I love a good cappuccino!
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
The whole V shaped prediction is pure fantasy. This is a global recession which had it's impetus in the world of finance and is balance-sheet driven, all three of these factors point to a long recession and a slow recovery (history can be a guide).
7. 51ck-6-51x said...
Oh - matt - is your piece on the separation of political spin from economic data on line? I'd love to read it.
8. timmy t said...
These numbers always get revised - I wouldn't mind betting they go above 2.0% when that happens. This is the psycholoigcal "it began with a 1 so it's not too bad".
9. icarus said...
mg @3 - you forgot to mention the growth in 'government and other services', especially health and social work. Add this to Ag, Forestry & Fishing and.......there's your green shoots.
10. mountain goat said...
icarus - yes that was too painful to mention so I went into denial
11. rocket robbie said...
Its obvious that the country is going down the pan. But has anyone got any suggestions as to what the goverment should do to try and improve things??
If they raise IR wont that mean that more jobs will be lost and businesses will suffer as well.
Dont get me wrong im not saying that i surrport the goverment with what they are doing but just want to know what the alternative is and how that would effect jobs and the economy
12. jack c said...
The decline in manufacturing in the last 6 months is the worst ever recorded - Toshiba factory in Plymouth is latest today to be added to list of job losses as work is moved to Poland.
13. mountain goat said...
rocket robbie - it's hard to go into detail but in general my approach would be to avoid bailouts. Every mortgage holder and business that is bailed out prevents a more solvent and therefore worthy person from getting ahead in their place. Bailouts are bad economics. When there are "too big to fail issues" then the focus needs to be on protecting the citizens not the business, staff or investors. Keep those business propped up only as long as needed to prevent counter-party mayhem and then shut them down.
14. inbreda said...
"11. rocket robbie said...
Its obvious that the country is going down the pan. But has anyone got any suggestions as to what the goverment should do to try and improve things??"
I suggest suicide.
15. mountain goat said...
rocket and inbreda - I don't agree we are going down the pan. It's a recession, that's all. Boom and bust are as natural as summer and winter. Politicians don't look good in a recession because they bathe themselves in glory during the boom. The truth is the economy follows its own path. Their job is to stop Madoff crooks not fix the economy. The more politicians try to do the worse this will get.
16. 51ck-6-51x said...
MG - Here here.
17. rocket robbie said...
Mg
I cant help thinking that we are in a vicious cycle which feeds on itself. More people lose there jobs then less people spend which causes more people to lose there job and so on. Thats why i can see why the goverment are trying to kick start the economy with low IR and i struggle to contemplate the ramifications if IR were to rise because then the economy would have no chance of picking up.
I think most bloggers on here have a nice stash of cash and a decent job and want high IR to protect there savings but for all those people who are out of work it must be horrible not knowing where the money is coming from to pay the bills. Just seems like no matter what action the goverement take they will upset someone. Maybe it would be better to hike the IR get all the crap out the way and start to rebuild rather than prelonging the inevitable.
18. mountain goat said...
Rocket R - it is true that people will suffer from lost jobs. But if a clear out of the rotten wood lets the economy rebound faster than everyone is better off I believe
19. little professor said...
20. jack c said...
Excellent post LP - they showed this on today's working lunch and the commentators described the current reversal as "falling off a cliff" - UK Plc is really knee deep in the poo.
21. inbreda said...
so what the fugg, exactly, happened to the FTSE today?!
22. 51ck-6-51x said...
"But", they cry, "...the 2nd derivative!! It'll all be fine by the summer's end!!"
23. 51ck-6-51x said...
inbreda - it went up :)
24. 51ck-6-51x said...
^^ FTSE up on banks, commods; shrugs off weak UK GDP
25. jack c said...
inbreda said...so what the fugg, exactly, happened to the FTSE today?! Friday, April 24, 2009 05:44PM
FTSE 100 is currently tracking Dow and has been all week
26. britishblue said...
Re LP good graph at 19.
Also bear in mind house prices didn't start recovering last time until 3/12 years AFTER growth returned to the economy and there were some pretty good growth figures between 1993 and 1996. Employment always lags economic growth. Peoples savings always lag employment. So in order for there to any recovery in the housing market first you need growth (months if not years away), then you need employment, then people have to save.
We could be 5 years away from the real bottom!
27. general congreve said...
LP @ 19 - WTF!!! First time I've seen that graph. I knew things were catastrophic, but in graphical form it's truly mental, certainly hits home. So, as Inbreda suggests, suicide all round then! If that mexican swine-human-avian (how the hell?) Mexican flu doesn't reach us first, that is. ;)