Tuesday, Apr 28, 2009
The Armstrong high has past
Market Oracle: Mexican Swine Flu Hits Stock Markets
It’s just what we need now - a flu-pandemic scare in the midst of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Risk appetite was bubbling up a little late last week. The fall-out from the US bank stress test was seen to be confined to some of the regional banks and the economic data continued to show some “bottoming”. Ford’s share price jumped sharply on better-than-expected earnings and US home-builders rallied to their highest level since October.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:24 PM (1178 views) Add Comment
30 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
The Armstrong high past us on 19 April (possibly indicating a low in gold - we shall see)
The resonance with the cold war is straight upon us with
Bay of Pigs in 1961 (maps to 19 April 2009
Berlin wall in 1961 (maps to 25 April 2009)
Cuban missile crisis in 1962 (maps to 17 May 2009)
It looks like the Swine flu pandemic is resonating with the cold war in the early 1960s. Expect this to reach a peak around 17 May before the panic tails off gradually.
2. little professor said...
passed, not past
3. wdbeast said...
Or is it pist?
4. denzil said...
The words "clutching" and "straws" springs to mind. It is not quite as obscure as connecting Armstrong with Dwayne Chambers.
5. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Carl Calleman doesn't post much on his website nowadays
But here is a rare posting from earlier this month.
http://www.calleman.com/content/articles/RebirthCelebration.htm
Calleman really is delighted with the election of Obama; although I am not convinced we have any change at all.
He too sees the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 as a turning point, but he is definitely wearing rose-tinted glasses when reminiscing the period 1962-72. He misses out Vietnam and the 6 day war in 1967 which were big events.
I think Calleman hopes that the peak destruction was in the fifth night as this is normally where it occurs. However 95pc of the population are still sleepwalking into chaos and 2010 (the sixth night) will make 2008 look like a picnic.
6. inflation is eating my savings said...
The swine flu is a statistical blip compared to the 30,000 kids dying from malnutrition every day around the world. If Armstrong can detect a blip like that, he is indeed brilliant.
7. tyrellcorporation said...
Oh perlease S2R1 you're wasting my valuable eyeball movement reading this twaddle!
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
inflation is eating my savings,
"The swine flu is a statistical blip compared to the 30,000 kids dying from malnutrition every day"
You are correct. The death count here is not as important as it is very small.
It was important in May 2008 when the Chinese earthquake (12-20 May 2008) mapped to the Battle of Stalingrad (Aug 1942 - Jan 1943)
The death count between these 2 events was down by a factor of 20; just as change is now 20 times faster than then.
Back to the Swine flu and Cuban missile crisis comparison, the key point is that human civilisation is pushed very close to a catastrophe, but then pulls back in the nick of time.
9. sold 2 rent 1 said...
On the subject of flu pandemics, there is loads on thetruthseeker today.
Was The "Spanish Flu" Epidemic (1918-1919 ) that killed between 60 and 100 million people Man-made?
http://www.savethemales.ca/001836.html
10. titaniccaptain said...
Oh well seeing as your all talking about Swine Flu I just thought I would run in and throw a hand grenade into the room then scury away.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IhrIbIts-8
Not saying I agree but worth a look.
Either he is deluded or everyone else is.
11. str 2007 said...
S2R1
Gold took off on Monday 20th April (as you correctly predicted).
However you also mentioned in a post soon after that you thought Gold may fall again before it actually takes off on I think you said 7th May.
Well Gold seems to be falling again (as you said) is this likely to continue into early May and then take off on 7th May (correct me if this date's wrong).
Looking at the bullion vault sterling quarter chart it looks as though there could be quite a fall to the bottom of the downward trading range, but then I'm no expert on waves etc. and maybe the chart should be read in dollar terms rather than sterling.
Dare you venture any opinions on how low you see Gold in Sterling terms go before it takes off ?
I noticed Merryn Somerset of Money Week suggesting that Sterling perhaps wasn't going to do so badly afterall, although this seemed to be largerly based on the fact she got tucked up twice in French Restaurants rather than anything else.
She also seemed to be pushing Gold investment in the same article, which given it's an English publication would seem to be a slight conflict of opinion to me on the basis that if your Gold holding is purchased in Sterling then it's the Sterling relationship to Gold rather than the dollar relationship to Gold that is more important.
Particularly if you don't have a need for dollars.
12. sold 2 rent 1 said...
str 2007,
Armstrong has 2 turning points on 19 Apr and 7 May and nothing after until August.
So a gold bottom on these dates is possible. I have had August pencilled in for a mini-top for a while now so we need a low soon.
On the Fractal Gold Report, gold seems to be at a critical point where the bottom on 17 Apr could hold if we keep above 880 today. However if this fails then a 21 May bottom is their prediction.
Either way, the parabolic phase in gold is getting closer, and when it starts 3 digit gold will be history.
13. george monsoon said...
Sorry in advance..
I thought I had swine flu this morning.. my skin was itching all over.. I had broken out in Rashers..
Doctor gave me some oinkment and sent me on my way...
14. drewster said...
No need to fear the piggy-sniffles, as long as you have the correct oinkment!
I know, I'm such a swine. At least I'm not telling porkies like s2r1.
15. str 2007 said...
Cheers S2R1
Don't worry they'll scoff and squeele if you're right.
16. pelethar said...
You are getting dangerously close to making a solid prediction here s2r1 - the last such was the one you issued over oil prices last year, which made you look a bit of a banana. Can I get you to confirm you are saying gold will definitely explode in price by 21 May at the latest? Are you willing to put a price on where it will be by, say, 30 June?
17. denzil said...
I've a prediction. Before the end of May Gold will fall and then rise at some point.
Hey, just call me Armstrong.
18. sold 2 rent 1 said...
pelethar,
The models say that we can expect a mini-top going into late August then a significant correction in gold and especially gold stocks into the end of September.
The 25 September is a massive buying op as this is when the gold mania really gets going in Elliott wave 3.
We are only resonating with 1961 at the moment and the main gold bull phase doesn't happen until the 1970s (IE September 2009 - March/April 2010)
BTW If we don't see a major gold rally between Sept and Dec then I will officially quit and bow out with an apology.
19. denzil said...
s2r1 said:
"BTW If we don't see a major gold rally between Sept and Dec then I will officially quit and bow out with an apology."
Ok, define what you would regard as a major gold rally. The problem is you wont and if gold rises a bit you will call that a rally.
Lets have it. What would constitute a rally???
20. sold 2 rent 1 said...
denzil,
"Lets have it. What would constitute a rally???"
Over $1,800 by the end of the December 2009
Gold rose from $35 to $195 by the mid 1970s, fell back to $100, then rocketed to $850 in 1980.
If the resonance plays out then we can expect the same wild ride in just 6 months
21. pelethar said...
Someone keep a copy of this thread.
22. flintster1994 said...
Whats with some posters always pushing s2r1 for predictions all of the time? It's not as if he's in your face.
He has his theories and views which are quite interesting. I for one enjoy his posts.
Keep up the alternative views s2r1, I'm all ears!
P.S I read both of Callemans books on off the back of your posts. Lets just say that I am definately open minded.
23. sold 2 rent 1 said...
flintster1994,
Last year I made some pretty bad predictions on gold and people have the right to hammer me on that.
That is because I was only really following one model that I didn't understand very well then. Now I am following 4 models and understand them much better; Calleman, Armstrong, Harry Dent, and the Fractal gold report. Together they show that a gold mania is heading our way in 2010.
24. jonb said...
If the stock markets are down purely because a few people have caught the flu, then I detect a buying opportunity. This will blow over one way or another in a few months.
25. flintster1994 said...
s2r1,
I'm aware of your past predictions.
I also understand that you are incorporating more models into your analysis.
Although I can see that several different academics may be on to something, I still believe that the massiveness of the universe is more complex than any human being is able to comprehend.
An open mind and the belief that absolutely anything is possible is the way that I am travelling through my own life. Finding patterns is one thing and may give peace of mind. However, This ride we are on is to be enjoyed and wondered at. The universe will decide everything in the end.
26. sold 2 rent 1 said...
flintster1994,
"However, This ride we are on is to be enjoyed and wondered at. The universe will decide everything in the end."
Agreed.
BTW my latest thinking is all the models break down in 2011 as we head into the consciousness singularity.
27. flintster1994 said...
s2r1
Some say. Who really knows?
We shall see. But if the 2011 date doesn't work out the way that you enisage, that doen't mean that your understandings are wrong, only your models. Contrary to Callemans beliefs, I'm not so sure the Univese works to a stringent timescale. I'm sure the rules change according to its will. Again we shall see.
Man I sound like a hippy and you know what? I dont care!
All the best.
28. icarus said...
s2r1 @ 9.17 - Gold rocketed to $850 in 1980. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't it stay at $850 for about 5 minutes and then rocket back down again?
29. p. doff said...
28. icarus said...
''stay at $850 for about 5 minutes and then rocket back down again''
Yeah, and with change apparently now happening 20 times faster, you'll have to be quick as you've only a few seconds to spot the peak, sell and cash in. Lol
My own take on this - Gold is up and down like a yoyo at the moment. Any predictions of rises or falls can be matched to actual events given a degree of retrospective massaging.
IMHO anybody planning their financial strategy based on fringe ideas spouted on a blog wants their head examining.
30. sold 2 rent 1 said...
p. doff
"Yeah, and with change apparently now happening 20 times faster, you'll have to be quick as you've only a few seconds to spot the peak, sell and cash in. Lol"
Well at least you have been listening