Thursday, Apr 16, 2009
Normal ramping service resumes at The Times
Times Online: Property sales come to life as hopes rise for end to falling prices
RICS say new buyer inquiries rose for the fifth consecutive month in March and at the fastest pace since September 2003. CML say there was a 4% rise in the number of mortgages approved between January and February. So 4% represents salvation for the housing market?
Posted by quiet guy @ 12:03 AM (1222 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. drewster said...
Over in the Torygraph, they're claiming that the pound rose above $1.50 for first time in three months, boosted by figures showing the pace of decline in UK house prices had slowed. There's far too much optimism around. We really must be due another market tumble.
2. tyrellcorporation said...
I think there is a concerted and orchestrated push going on by all the VIs concerned. I believe the current spike will wither on the vine and the downward trend will continue apace for at least 2 more years. Cash rich buyers who are fed up waiting are capitulating and there is also a lot of denial out there - heck I've been beginning to waiver! Wait patiently for another bad set of data - which will arrive very soon.
3. Sybil13 said...
Its probably why FT reported Moody's downgrading 16 lenders.
Moody’s said it had changed its assumptions about UK house prices in the past few months.(no green shoots then?) It also stress-tested the mutuals’ commercial loan portfolios, where it expects the performance to worsen during the next few years.
Marjan Riggi of Moody’s said: “What’s different is the loss expectation is higher than it was three or four months ago looking at the economic forecasts on housing.
“Last year we were looking at mortgage lenders and stress-testing a 25 per cent fall in house prices. In the past three or four months that assumption has changed to a 40 per cent fall, which is a considerable difference.”
On Wednesday Adrian Coles, director-general of the Building Societies Association, said Moody’s had included an extreme stress test of a 60 per cent fall in house prices, even though the Nationwide house price index has only seen a 18.9 per cent fall in prices from October 2007 until now
4. paul said...
There is a really pervasive and hugely popular idea going round the media right now that a recession is nothing more than a short-lived dip in eceonomic activity. This is obviously purveyed chiefly by commentators that either have no living memory of the last recession or simply have no memory.
How some papers like The Times can say with a straight face that they think the recession is over is unfathomable. Are they trying to kid everyone, or just kid themselves? Either way it won't work.
As Jon Hunt (former owner and then seller of Foxtons just before the slump) put it "The property slump will be over when no-one talks about property any more".
By logical conclusion then, sometime between now and that point these property experts will either shut up or get the boot ... ?
5. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
Francesca Steele April 15th 2009:
"Homebuyers are out in force"
This is backed up in her article with :
"a 4 per cent rise in the number of mortgages"
"number of approvals, at 24,300, was 47 per cent lower than the same period last year"
"The most recent house price figures from Nationwide and Halifax showed a 0.9 per cent increase and a 1.9 per cent fall respectively for last month. "
Out in force? Really? Because from where I am sitting it doesn't read quite like that.
What a complete bafoon. Journalism certainly not her strong point.
6. waitingfor hpc said...
they sell papers.... and good news sells, even if it is not true! Only believe half what you read and all of what you see. The market has not picked up in my area, and I am a cash rich buyer who is defo not buying yet .................
7. Jayk said...
Please give up with this childish "ramping" rubbish. I'm no fan of The Times (or any Murdoch owned outlet) but you are being highly selective and disingenuous. They publish just as many articles on their site "talking down" the market as they do "up". I believe it's called balance, something a few here might like to look into.
8. bluebeach said...
Waiting for @ 5.... I'm in exactly the same boat, however, do we really think that when inflation takes off, that Fat Gordo will raise
interest rates fast enough so that our savings get a fair return and will make people think twice about buying at such high prices and high rates.... I believe that he will continue with his false indexes and suppress rates to keep the balloon afloat... what do you reckon?
9. timmy t said...
5&6 - I'm in that boat too. And I don't care what any papers say, I ain't buying yet. Sure our savings are withering away but the time will come when interest rates HAVE to go up. It will be a long time before house prices do the same. Call it a blip, a dead cat, a statistical anomaly, call it whatever you like. Bottom line is that this country is up to its ears in debt and we have a serious recession on our hands. Buying now would be commercial suicide.
10. inbreda said...
@7 - I don't agree with your view that "balance" equals contradictory articles. Saying on Monday that house prices are going up, only to report on Tuesday that house prices are going down, is not balanced - just confusing. A more rigerous analysis of the numbers and a detached non-bias focus would result in a balanced article.
11. waitingfor hpc said...
at the end of the day inflation will be in goods purchased abroad via exchange rates, but not in £'s. I see the cost of EVERYTHING we import going up and taxes going up. I can not see any wage increases on the horizon, except for bankers bonuses of course! so my view is that house inflation will not happen for a few years yet. This level of activity seems a bit strange to me and a bit quick, i suspect that the spin machine of no 10 has been working overtime along with others ...
12. general congreve said...
Waitingfor hpc @11 - Totally with you on inflation born from a weakening pound, both from more expensive imports and domestic producers pricing goods higher on UK shelves in line with what they could sell them for abroad.
The economy is wrecked, just look in your local high street, I've never seen a single shop vacant for more than a few days in my town, we now have 4 permanently empty, including the former woolworths for 4 months, one of the best pieces of retail real estate in the town.
Pushing house prices back up in the current climate, especially considering the record levels of personal indebtedness of the UK population, is impossible. The govt. can make as many duff loans with taxpayers money as it wants, via its controlled banks, in its efforts to reinflate the housing bubble. It's just dragging us further into the mire.