Sunday, Apr 05, 2009
Have commercial-property funds reached rock-bottom?
Independent: Signs of life in crippled property fund market
Property funds – which invest in offices, shops and other commercial buildings – have slumped 40 per cent since hitting their peak in June 2007. Does that mean it's time for investors to pile in to take advantage of some juicy recovery? [Erm, no. Fancy boutiques are closing and re-opening as charity shops - which means significantly lower rents. Offices are emptying as companies announce redundancies, just as millions of newly-built square feet are coming onto the market.] In fact, anyone speculating that the property market has reached the bottom is likely to be proved wrong, if the experts are to be believed. Any recovery is likely to be months away at best, says Scottish Widows. They predict that the commercial property market has a further 10 per cent to fall.
2 Comments
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1. Johnny5thumbs said...
Land Secs, Serco & all the major players have lifted 15% - 20% from the bottom in the last fortnight, so another 10% hit wouldn't take us to the bottom. When exactly did the Indie scribe reseqarch his article? - certainly more than a week ago. It would take a 20% -25% fall to even touch bottom again, not that that couldn't happen.
2. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Around 50% eh?
I sense the residential market will follow.
Interesting the MSM are warming to these kinds of numbers.
Was it only a year ago or so that Caroline Flint's papers were photographed, providing the first admission from government that the property market wouldn't hold steady but might decline by 5%?
Looks a pretty poor forecast now we're at -20%, with -30% looking like a given and 50% fast becoming the mainstream view.