Wednesday, Apr 15, 2009
Guess what the EAs are saying?
Guardian: View from the street - what estate agents are saying
"The market has more or less reached the bottom, so a lot of people are moving up the market if they have got good jobs and their mortgage is going down. HSBC have introduced their 90% mortgage- that will help, finding the 10% is ok, parents will help,"
"It is picking up, people would prefer to put their money in to property rather than a bank."
"People who sold to rent 18 months ago are now coming back in to the market, the public realise this is a good time to buy a house. The most important thing is getting your hands on a mortgage, if you can do that then you can buy a house."
"First-time buyers seem to be coming out again now. They are being helped with 10-20% deposits by their parents as they can see now is a good time to buy."
"Prices have reduced as low as they are going to."
21 Comments
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1. drewster said...
"Prices have reduced as low as they are going to." - Scott Smith, Oliver Bond Estate Agents, Greenwich
You can expect a call from us in six months time, inviting you to eat your words.
2. Fun 4 Now said...
always good to get an objective view!
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4. gone-to-colombia said...
What the hell do estate agents know?
Another group of so called experts.
5. Karen said...
Cannot help being a little sceptical. Certainly people are looking again, but probably like us, we look, cannot quite get around to making an appointment to view as although the houses have gone down, most not enough. People still want silly money, word has not really got through to the agents and owners that they will not sell unless they reduce prices. I have seen one or two houses round here, go back on the market for more than last year. Last year they did not sell because they were too expensive. Some people are just having a laugh. We have cash to buy with, but apart from giving someone a gift of an extra 100k for the privelege of taking their house off them, we have no hope of finding a sensibly priced house. Last year people were not taking my sensible offers, this year they will be lower. Madness.....
6. quiet guy said...
Roger Tyers, Macintyers Estate Agents, Brackley:
"Now that HSBC have introduced their 90% mortgage rate that will help, finding the 10% is ok, parents will help, particularly parents who have a deposit."
Brian Woodiwiss, Parsons Son & Basley, Brighton:
"First-time buyers seem to be coming out again now but most are being aided by their parents' money."
So after squeezing out as much cash as possible from the FTBs, move up the food chain to go for their parents as well.
7. Grumpy Middle-aged Git said...
At least the London agents admit things aren't really moving unless it's cash buyers bagging a "questionable" bargain. I do worry about the Greenwich agent's logic - "Prices have reduced as low as they are going to" so the stalemate is the banks' fault for insisting on high deposits! Methinks the banks are going to win this contest and prices will go down even if there are some 10% deposit HSBC mortgages around - presumably those surveyors will value any property ultra cautiously (-40% from peak) to cover their backs.
I look forward to Mr Smith's reply around December if he's still there....
8. Greenshootsandleaves said...
Note to journalists: What we need here is a yardstick. In future, why not ask EAs to describe also how they would react to ... (wait for it ...) really good news on the property market? This would enable readers to make the necessary adjustments for inflation.
9. Blockernz said...
My parents won't be helping and i certainly don't need them to.
If people can't save at least a 10% deposit over 2-3 years, how on earth do they expect to pay back the other 90% principle over the next 20-30.... If market is dependent on parents money to prop it up then its still too high. And some of these parents might find they don't have as much equidee to through around they thought they did..
10. hpwatcher said...
Estate agents will ALWAYS talk the market up....
11. mark wadsworth said...
As I've said before, HSBC have said they will lend £1 billion of these 90% mortgages. That's enough for 10,000 mortgages @ £100,000. That's about ten days turnover, even in today's depressed market with very low volumes. Drops, oceans.
But plenty of free publicity for HSBC.
12. Daopig said...
House prices have reached bottom? I didn't notice any mention of 'seasonal adjustment' , nor 'average wage'. I do smell desperation, however. And there is the quantitative easing which is meant to act as a temporary house market prop.
House prices are meant to stay high because they have not become a financial instrument, and because we need a massively divided society: the propertied and an arbitrary, huge, underclass. Those are the rules. Rather than the servants of the country, the government is the engineer of advantage for its middle class, voting demographic. And the country is getting ravaged by the process : in favour of the wealthiest. Thus Labour's policy of 'drift to the top' continues...
13. uncle tom said...
It must be at least three years since I first warned that the down slope would be punctuated by false dawns..
..prices are not sustainable at their present levels. Trust me, the market is NOT bottoming out..!
14. george monsoon said...
No surprises...
This is to be expected.. It is not in an Estate Agents interest to talk a market down. We are fully aware that these are misguided, deluded comments, but they will continue to do this until one day (in about 15 years when their kids have all grown up..) they might actually be right.
To be honest, If I were running an estate agents right now. I would be following the market down, to stay in business..
15. vindicated said...
Well, if one more person tells me that they 'have definitely seen more sold signs' and 'prices are recovering'...I swear to God I'm going to swing for them!!! I'm with Uncle Tom but try telling this to the 'ignorant' who insist I'm being stubborn and 'missing out' yet again!! AARRRGGHHHHHHH. I try telling them that I was personally involved in the US crash (luckily got out in time) but that its only just starting to flat line over there now (if at all)... their crash started in 2006. That's three years so far. What makes the sheeple so sure that ours is any different?? Surely, ours is worse? Much worse?
Its all starting to nip my swede.
16. uncle tom said...
Careful Vindicated - you'll give yourself a coronary before you get the chance to profit from your wisdom!
There will always be some fools around with money to lose, but not that many on this occasion.
They will probably jump in and give the market a tiny bit of life as spring turns to summer, and may still be around in September.
Then however, I think things will turn sour. My best guess is that despite the govts attempts to limit repos, we are going to see a lot of forced sales as the nights draw in, by which time the latent stock of fools will be a spent force.
At some point we will also see the BOE forced to raise interest rates. The timing of that is a very hard call, as the govt will do its utmost (regardless of consequence..) to stop that happening before the election.
But i'm not at all sure they'll succeed..
17. luckyjim said...
vindicated
You cannot predict what is going to happen by making a simple comparisson with other crashes. Each crash is unique.
For example, in the USA most home owners have the right to simply hand the keys over to the bank and walk away. If your house is worth less than you owe, and you are struggling to keep up the payments, it is a no-brainer. Can you imagine what would happen in the UK if EVERYONE with negative equity simply defaulted and left the bank to auction the property ? It would be a totally different scenario. That is why the US market cannot be used as an indicator of what is going to happen here. We are not playing the same sport.
Likewise, you cannot compare this crash with the early ninties crash or with Japan's lost decade. You cannot assume that there is a constant house-price-to-average-earnings ratio which does not change from one decade to the next. It is just not that simple.
The good news is that economists will be able tell us exactly what happened and why AFTER the crash.
18. mander said...
Estate agents can only talk the market up because if house prices go up they earn bigger comissions without doing to much work either like in the case of selling 2-3 houses it is more work.
Personally I do not think credit worthy people are back on the market and working people should be very careful on the amount of debt they are taking on because first they need to spend first for food, children etc. But hey if we can not pay the debt the government will bail out the banks again and again and again and again so the conclusion will be: misery
19. wdbeast said...
This is the EA's last chance to "talk the market up" in order to get some confidence in the market.
For them it is all about confidence, without it noone buys.
I don't blame them for what they are doing, it is survival from their point of view.
They will suceed in getting a few more sales over the spring/summer but after that I agree with uncle tom, there is going to be a very long hard winter.
20. Happyrenting said...
Scott Smith, Oliver Bond Estate Agents, Greenwich: "[FTBs] cannot find the money and unless they are prepared to put down 20%-25% they cannot afford it."
I'm a FTB. I'm also prepared to buy a shiny red Ferrari but that doesn't mean I can afford it, Mr Smith.
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