Tuesday, Apr 21, 2009
Common sense for a change
Yahoo Finance: Of Course Banks Aren't Lending...And There's Nothing Wrong With That
The government's goal since the beginning of this crisis has been to get banks lending again. They have failed fortunately.
Posted by mountain goat @ 12:17 PM (1184 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. mountain goat said...
Off topic to my post but thought I would recommend a free pdf publication/forecast by Elliott Wave International. 120 pages of stuff on world markets, Europe's future. gold etc. Bob Pretcher did a masterful job to call the bottom and advising to end your shorts in March this year. This is definitely worth the hassle of signing up even if you don't trade investments. http://www.elliottwave.com/club/gmp/default.aspx?code=30443
2. 51ck-6-51x said...
I would add to the article as follows:
"Reckless banks making loans to borrowers who couldn't pay them back"
->
"Reckless banks, encouraged by central bank policy and government incentives put in place under the guise of added stability, making loans to borrowers who couldn't pay them back"
Banks were only doing what should be expected of them. In the capital markets induced stability leads, eventually, to instability when the stability can no longer be maintained by force. Governments never learn.
3. Frank Bell said...
MG
Thanks for the useful link, quite an interesting read after having a quick scan through aome of it
4. techieman said...
MG take a look at this : http://www.neowave.com/ i have the Neely Book http://www.neowave.com/product-book.asp but you need a phd (and a fair bit of time) to get to grips with it!!! No phd here im afraid!
5. mountain goat said...
Thanks for Neely reference TM. I think the maths doesnt scare me but the costs of these services does! As you say it takes a fair bit of time to master yourself. If there any free stuff available to find out more about the method?
I like the way EWI's Pretcher uses all sorts of other info too, like the protests in London and caps to banker bonuses, to come to a conclusion that we have a temporary low. I was also interested in his views on EURO zone, because I think with the next leg of the bear market the Eurozone will come under pressure to break up. So I want to short Euro stocks in a few months time when the market has rallied for a while.
6. techieman said...
Euro stocks or Eurostoxx? Just to be clear it wasnt a recomendation - i havent seen Neely's real time stuff.
Having said that yes i do have the book $95 worth but its in the library and i have tried to read it a few times but got distracted. Of course my fear is i have conflict with what i already use and then use the worst bits of all of them! [that happened to me for a while before]. Its based on Elliott but it uses maths to be less subjective. It depends on whether (like me) you like the subjectivity or you prefer something more concrete. To be fair when markets move around EW is relatively easy to apply - the tough bit comes from knowing when to step aside and let the market take a breath before the next impulsive move. That and how much weight you put on the existing count.
Well thats my experience anyway.
7. techieman said...
MG - took a look in Google and comes up with Amazon here's something from one reviewer...BTW its not me!!
http://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Elliot-Wave-Presenting-Forecasting/dp/0930233441
"Just about 5 years ago, I began seriously studying the markets. I was heavily influenced by many experts that this thing called Tecnical Analysis was a bunch of BS.
Five years, and thousands of dollars (in profits) later, I can tell you that technical analysis is a crucial tool in dealing with the fundamental uncertainty we traders deal with every day.
Even when I was basing decisions on conventional technical techniques, Elliott Wave Theory seemed like tea-leaf reading. But knowing what I know about the markets, I kept an open mind. I learned how to apply the basic rules, and was amazed at what I saw. There is much more to Elliott than I thought.
Neeley gives a thorough method for applying the Wave theory based strictly on price action. He guides you from analysing individual swings, to grouping them correctly into wave patterns. Once you have a workable count, it is possible to place a low risk, high profit trade on.
The key value in all of this is that you can see a number of possible scenarios. The one problem with Elliott is the issue of alternate counts. I've found that alternate counts often disagree as to the magnitude of a comming move, and less often on the direction, if you are using multiple timeframes.
I've actually worked through most of Neely's rules. I set up a spreadsheet to calculate the retracement levels he indicates in his text. Having said that, Neely omits one crucial bit of info. His method is based on retracement levels. Yet, he never tells you whether to use price levels, or percentages to measure the length of waves. Since he indicates you should use recent data, I've assumed he meant price lengths in dollars (or whateve currency you use).
This is a crucial omission, as price targets are determined by the relationships among waves. Sometimes using price lengths, rather than percentages, renders impossible targets. The only way around this is to use percentages for longer longer time periods, and price lengths for shorter ones. Posner covered this in Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably.
One problem is that Neely gives extensive wiggle room in his use of retracements to define patterns. This means his categories, while appearing rigorously objective, actually overlap to a considerable degree. You will often be left with 2 choices for a label, despite applying the rules consistently. That isn't necessarily Neely's fault--he is being realistic. No one ever said the market was easy.
I wouldn't tackle this text if you are unfamilliar with classical technical analysis. Elliott wave can be a frustrating theory. I've gotten headaches trying to count corrective patterns. Despite what Neely says, conventional indicators, candlesticks, and chart patterns can be very helpful when wave counts are not. Classical technicals and Elliott often overlap--suggesting the same conclusion. When they do, then you know you have a potential profit opportunity.
But if you are familiar with classical methods, and you are serious about learning Elliott Wave, then I can recommend this book. "
Sorry to have hi-jacked this thread!
8. techieman said...
MG - found this a free download!! Let me know if it really is free and how you get on - good luck!!
http://www.forex-book.org/mastering-elliott-wave-byglenn-neely-free-download/
9. mountain goat said...
TM I meant Eurostoxx.
From what the reviewer wrote it seems like Neely isnt as precise as he might like. I think good trading needs to use a measure of judgement which makes these guys great traders, so using their method alone doesnt make you as good as they are.
10. mountain goat said...
Thanks TM download of book worked will give it a read.
11. general congreve said...
MG and Techieman - While I've read a bit of Elliot Wave theory before, I'm no trader and have to say I'm a sceptic about this sort of technical analysis. You two seem to know a little about it, so can you tell me whether you use wave analysis often and whether you win more often than lose with it?
12. mountain goat said...
GC - I am interested in it but really don't have enough experience to comment. I