Tuesday, Apr 21, 2009
Aww, they'll miss us. Seems a bit early though!
FT: What we will miss about the prophets of doom
For two years now, we have collectively gorged on tales of tears and deeds of downfall. If the bulls really are back and the economic and financial misery is about to end, here are 16 reasons why we will miss the gloomy times.
3. The prophets of doom have had a field day. Yet we feel strangely comfortable with the Cassandras. We have enjoyed being told that the light at the end of the tunnel signals an approaching train. Now we will have to get re-acquainted with the optimists – a much more dangerous and unsettling bunch of people.
9. Dinner party talk of house price rises will return. People will no longer be ashamed of being estate agents. Sons and daughters will again want to go into investment banking rather than eco-farming.
Posted by drewster @ 12:59 AM (3297 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. Beartil2010 said...
We ain't going nowhere!
2. Frank Bell said...
Still got worse to come yet IMO, but it all goes in cycles and I am looking forward to taking some of those cheap flights like we had at the end of the last recession, True what he mentioned about Sons & Daughters going back into Investment Banking but will there ever be anybody in favour of EA's?
Point 16. very true, Chinese Renminbi will be the reserve currency of the world in a few years.
3. paul said...
They so want it to be true, principally I think because the signs like unemployment and affordability are all pointing in the wrong direction right now.
Funny thing is, they don't even know why they want house prices to go up because it only benefits bankers and estate agents in the long run.
4. george monsoon said...
I wasn't convinced by all the talk on here about the "dead cat bounce", so I did some research..
In all of recorded history, every time an economy enters a recession, there appears to be this early hicup in the fall, where things appear to be returning to normal, however what follows (in every case) is a severe downturn after a short spell of optimism and the graphs always dip way.. WAY lower than the initial fall for an extended period of time..
If history does repeat itself, as it appears to have done many, many times, then this bounce that has occured, 18 months after the onset, means we are going to see about 6 months of optimism, followed by about 4 or 5 years of decline.
5. drewster said...
george,
I'd say we're just coming up to the end of the dead cat bounce now, at least for the stockmarket. The housing market's DCB is in its early stages, however by September it'll be forgotten and the downward trend will be stronger than ever.
Looking across the pond, there wasn't much of a DCB in housing there. The Case-Shiller index shows a fairly smooth curve - although that could reflect the way the data is collected or simply the fact that the US has a much greater sample size.
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
george monsoon - much as I agree this is a bounce, we cannot say we are in the early stages of a recession since, historically this has already been a relatively long one, and if it is early then not all recessions can have such a 'hiccup' some only last one quarter for a start! Please show your analysis for me :)