Monday, Apr 06, 2009
Across the pond: record pace of falls, prices down to Q3 2003 level
Mish's: Case-Shiller March 2009 Analysis
The Jan 2009 Case-Shiller data continues to accelerate to the downside at a record pace. The 10 and 20 city index show declines from their peak at 30% and the bubble cities all have declines of 40% or more with Phoenix having the largest percentage drop of nearly 50%. Additionally, all 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller have now experienced price declines in excess of 10%. The Case-Shiller data uses a Repeated Sales Methodology which provides the most accurate housing data available. Cities such as San Francisco have likely already experienced the bulk of their price decline as prices have already returned to those of 8 1/2 years ago (Oct 2000). However, cities in the Pacific Northwest have only seen prices return to mid-2005 levels and are likely have significant price declines yet.
3 Comments
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1. mark wadsworth said...
Sweet! Their HPC started a year before ours - we're back to mid-2004 prices and they're back to late 2003 prices.
The only thing bigger and more powerful that the bond markets is the housing market.
2. monty032 said...
This is a great antidote to the tosh spouted by the likes of Anne Ashworth. Simply point out that the US market turned a year before ours, that they are down 30% already and San Francisco prices for example are back where they were in 2000. Then ask why anyone should think that things will be any better here, considering our bubble was demonstrably larger than theirs. The housing supply is more constrained here, but a simple supply and demand chart shows that with a flatter supply line, prices go up more as demand rises, but conversely fall more as demand falls.
3. drewster said...
mark / monty,
If San Francisco prices are back to Oct 2000 levels, and the US is a year behind us, does that mean London prices would return to 2001 or to 1999 levels?