Thursday, Mar 26, 2009
US T-bond market and the Armstrong turning point
Market Oracle: Eggertsson Theory, Armstrong, Timing and the Economic Confidence Model
Looking at the US T-bond market and the Armstrong turning point on 19 April.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 11:42 AM (889 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
As I have said over the last few weeks, this turning point could see the end of a 28 year trend in falling US bond yields
2. uncle tom said...
If that Armstrong chart was correct, then business confidence should have risen substantially over the last year.
- sure it has!
3. sold 2 rent 1 said...
UT,
"If that Armstrong chart was correct, then business confidence should have risen substantially over the last year."
Maybe when we get to 19 April, world confidence will be as good as it gets in this dead cat bounce - not much at all
I agree that world confidence is still pretty low, but IMHO this is a reflection of just how much worse things are going to get over the next 2 years
I am pretty sure you ave never read any of his articles:
These are the best 4 from Armstrong.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/01/martin-armstrong-the-coming-great-depression.html
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/01/martin-armstrong-the-collapse-of-socialism.html
4. uncle tom said...
s2r,
Anyone who thinks they have found a repetitive pattern needs to find a sound answer to a basic question:
"what is causing this repetitive pattern, and is that underlying causal factor stable enough to ensure that the pattern repeats again"
Sorry, but these fruitcake theories fail that test miserably.
5. crunchy said...
My moto- Trade what you see not what you think!
With respect.
6. sold 2 rent 1 said...
UT,
"There will be those who believe in the business cycle and use it to their advantage just as there will be those who refuse to acknowledge its existence. As long as not everyone believes, the cycle will exist forever." - Martin Armstrong
7. uncle tom said...
s2r,
To quote the classic courtroom line from the infamous Mandy Rice-Davies
"He would say that, wouldn't he?"