Friday, Mar 13, 2009
The date to buy in 2009
Telegraph: September 16, 2009: The perfect day to buy your next house
Far from considering a few months period this is THE date to buy. Interesting thought.
Posted by kaz @ 11:35 AM (2155 views) Add Comment
22 Comments
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1. will said...
The survey is flawed as they don't tell us who the 'experts' are. I suspect some will be VI's.
2. 51ck-6-51x said...
What a joke. The bottom of the market will be granular with respect to the entire 'market' - if you plan on buying a city centre two bed new build flat in Leeds your timing should certainly be different to that of someone looking to by an Edwardian mews house in Belgravia. And as will points out, where is the data or a reference to the source at least?
3. 51ck-6-51x said...
Furthermore May 2010 is the farthest predicted bottom amongst these experts? So it would seem they are all on the optimistic side to me (and to many others here).
4. techieman said...
Apologies to Lou Reed
"Just a perfect day, Feed animals in the zoo...
"Just a perfect day,Problems all left alone,"
"Just a perfect day,You made me forget myself.I thought I was someone else"
"Oh such a perfect day, You just keep me hanging on,"
"You're going to reap just what you sow"
5. ketha said...
It's great to see the press have learned nothing. At best rampant speculation, and worst cynical ramping
6. Paul said...
These must be the same experts that predicted prices won't fall be keep on going northwards. Sentiment reads more like a wish than an informed guess.
I may jump in when prices fall 50% from peak and get a 15 year fixed mortgage for when Harare on Thames inflation hits our shores due to all this recklessness by Merv & Brown.
I can't believe how poorly our so called experts are handling this. Probably thats the biggest suprise of all!
7. str 2007 said...
51ck
''So it would seem they are all on the optimistic side to me (and to many others here).''
Sorry
A house came on yesterday I'd previously had my eye on. I liked it enough to at least do the mortgage exercise. I can use my deposit and buy the other half of it for less than I can rent a 3 bed semi (including repaying the mortgage). As a worst case scenario the house would easily rent for enough to cover it's own mortgage and my rent on a 3 bed semi.
But having perused the mortgage offers I concluded that the majority require 40% deposit now. BTL mortgages at reasonable rates require £5k arrangement fees.
This set me thinking that prices will fall further purely on the basis that to move 'up' the market into the next size house generally requires a jump of about 40-50%. Therefore the only people able to move given current mortgage offers are those that have completely cleared their mortgage.
And I'm afraid FTB don't even get a look in.
So I hope you'll be reassured I'm turning more bearish.
Still not sure how to protect/make my savings work though !
8. uncle tom said...
I'm looking at a false dawn this autumn being likely, with a brief period of moderately bullish sentiment.
But I'm also looking at the chickens coming home on the QE front at much the same, with inflation rising and interest rates being forced up by the end of the year -
- so I see dawn morphing into renewed dusk rather rapidly..
9. Wanttomoveon said...
I imagine September 16th 2009 will be nothing more than the bottom of the bull trap!
10. Liddiard said...
God these articles get worse and worse don't they? 6 million people plus looking at negative equity and nothing that anybody can do because the Uk cannot afford to support the inflated property market so prices HAVE TO FALL in line with income to loan ratios and here we are being told that a day in September would be a perfect day for buying a £1 1/2 million pound house! I despair at the mentality of some of these reporters and the people that read the articles. How many people do you think have put in their Diary in September "go buy that million pound mansion now before it is only valued at £500000!"
11. britishblue said...
I also predict a rally in September. It will be a good time to buy if you are an idiot! or if you have decided there is a particular home that you have coveted and you want to spend the next 5-10 years in and if prices go up or down it doesn'treally matter a lot to you.
Like the stock market towards the end of the year there will be a suckers rally. By September some of the money from quantitative easing will have got through to more readily available mortgages. House prices will be 30% off the boom,a couple of indices will show house prices up , all the vested interests will be ramping up and interest rates will be cheaper than they ever have been.
But underneath the surface more repossessions will be taking place, more people unable to withstand the tide of debt, creeping inflation and the Bank of England looking at when it will have to raise interest rates again. Within 12 months interest rates will have to rise. Banks will just wack this straight on whatever they charge.
This will punch the suckers rally in its tracks and then we will see a downward spiral from there. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a 30% dip by September, followed by a few months of marginal growth and then a downward spiral early in the following year. When it hits the bottom history tells us it stays there for quite some time, so I am not sure why these experts talk about a best time. A best time is normally several years, not a single month.
A suckers rally is best case scenario. Worse case they keep on dropping without any kind of rally.
12. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Don't believe people who come up with such hard dates of predictions - LOL
(Unless you’re using a bona fide cyclical model of course)
13. alan said...
I can only admire the Telegraph's stance. I wish I were bright enough to forecast that far ahead!
I can only imagine that this is the time when houses go up again for a brief time (see cyclical models/suckers rally) before the government goes bankrupt - shall we say by Christmas!
14. timmy t said...
On the basis that the most bullish date for the bottom of the market has already passed, this piece of "journalism" becomes an incorrect prediction as soon as the next piece of data is released saying that prices are still falling. I'd love to know which "expert" said last Thursday was the bottom.
15. Skewers said...
But surely the "bells are ringing" that it's hit bottom????
16. Tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...
They could well be right
BUT
In September 2010 prices might be £500 more. In September 2011 they might only be £250 more.
Anyone who can spot a trend on a graph e.g. the one on the HPC website will see that things are most likely to bump
along the bottom for several years before they really start going up again.
We will probably have another bubble in the meantime. Remember in the late 90s all the "smart" money was in Technology stocks.
Does anyone remember "Diary of a Day Trader" in the Sunday Times ? A clever clogs sold his big house for £200000 and traded down
to a £100000 one and gave up his job so he could make his fortune Day Trading technology stocks! After all there was no investment potential in houses! I would love to know what happened to him (and if his wife ever forgave him).
:- Duncan
Bought 1989 £65000 Sold 1999 £70000.
17. Dave@gift Wrapped Mortgages said...
What a load of speculative rubbish. Anyone in their right mind knows it will be October 15th!
18. Citizen Sucker said...
"A Daily Telegraph survey of property experts".............No such thing.
You mean desperate property professionals with a vested interest?
19. dohousescrashinthewoods said...
Best .. in 2009. Rather precludes a discussion on whether 2010 - or 2020 - would be better still ;)
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