Thursday, Mar 19, 2009
Spring bounce, dead cat bounce or blatant ramping?
Metro: House sales up after record lows
From a largely fact-free article "The number of homes changing hands rose to its highest level for a year during February as a recent jump in buyer interest translated into increased sales, new research shows... The National Association of Estate Agents said ... the rise in transactions showed that the increase in buyer demand seen during January was beginning to generate more sales, as consumers believed there were "bargains to be had" in the property market. It added that with record low interest rates making savings accounts less attractive, growing numbers of people were were willing to make a long-term investment in bricks" Sorry, they're not investing in bricks and mortar, they're investing in inflated land values (cont. page 94).
Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:37 AM (1274 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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1. paul said...
The number of househunters estate agents had on their books remained broadly unchanged during February at an average of 240, following a jump of more than 20% in January. The proportion of househunters who were first-time buyers also held up at 24%, more than double the 11% recorded in December.
So absolutely no statistical evidence provided to support the conclusion that "House sales are up".
Baffling.
2. Pooodle2 said...
"The average estate agent agreed eight sales during the month"
Theres a very big difference between 'agreeing' a sale and completion.
Where I live (dorset) I wee lots of 'Sale Agreed' boards going up, then 6/8 weeks later they change back to 'For Sale' when the buyers either can't get a mortgage / valuation is less than agreed price / they realise that they can egt it cheaper
3. 51ck-6-51x said...
I do not see this press release on the NAEA website!
4. Jayk said...
I've said it before and I'll say it again: no line on an economic chart is ever straight. There will always be months where the line jinks in the direction opposite to the trend. Look at the Halifax HPI chart on this very site: during the mega-boom years, there were months when average prices dropped, and months where they did not move at all (but in real terms could also said to have dropped). Why can't people just accept this simple fact? There will be good months, there will be bad months. The latter will outnumber the former for a couple or three years longer, no doubt. But stop denying the former.
Another thing I'll say again is that prices haven't budged an inch in my town since November. I have a healthy deposit, no debt and a safe job which pays well so am likely to get a mortgage with relative ease, but prices are still way too high to tempt me. And it's the same within a 10-mile radius. Note everywhere is like the city centre of Leeds you know.
5. will said...
Number of sales completed does not translate into rising house prices.
6. crunchy said...
Gotta hand it to them folks.
Like the dung beetle they just can't stop pushing.
7. doomwatch said...
I have now moved out of the London slave factory. Oops sorry, "best City in the world" (best at rude, miserable, expensive, big queues, etc). I really miss the Metro in the morning... but only if I've run ouit of loo role.
8. icarus said...
To be fair, paul, they do claim that 'sales agreed' (though not necessarily completions) are up (at least for the average EA - though their numbers are probably still droppping, thereby weakening the relevance of this number).
Yet another EA who deliberately confuses 'demand' = actual purchases with 'demand' = would like to buy if only..... They say the latter demand is very strong but 'more needs to be done'. What might that be - letting prices fall much further or pursuing the policies that caused this mess?).
Crunchy, and they're pushing the same stuff as the dung beet pushes - and in elephantine dollops).
9. icarus said...
er, 'beetle'
10. crunchy said...
5. doomwatch.........
Congratulations, enjoy your new found tranquility whilst you can!
11. braindeed said...
I wonder, I wonder....there is a general contrarian view taken in here, but is it possible?
12. Roger said...
The thing all these reports forget to cover is that the total number of Estate Agents is falling, so the same level of demand (or even lower demand) can still cause more reported business for the Estate Agents left in the market.
13. Zippys said...
if the housing market is back online lets put the interest rates up!!
strange I thought unemployment figures were up today? perhaps people don't need jobs to create a rising market!!!