Wednesday, Mar 11, 2009
Pesto answers his own question: No
BBC: Will QE work?
"And the device of authorising the Bank of England to buy up a huge proportion of these IOUs has apparently reduced the cost of all that borrowing to an astonishing degree. Which seems a bit bananas, since surely all we're talking about here is one arm of the state buying debt issued by another arm of the state. Surely if markets were rational and efficient, there would be no impact on gilt prices, or yields or interest rates at all. Isn't there a kind of Ricardian equivalence going on here, where nothing of economic substance has actually changed? It seems to me that this policy only works on the basis that markets are irrational and short-termist." Exactly what I have been saying for ages, so if I'm wrong, at least I'm not the only one.
9 Comments
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1. paul said...
This is not good news for savers and the prudent among us, but it could be a whole lot worse if QE was to be a runaway success.
I didn't think it would work, which is why I still have all my money in sterling. Although you won't see it mentioned in the press, deflation removes wealth from the central bank (or printer of money) to the people holding money (you and me). This is why Mystic Merv always wants inflation - it keeps the Bank in control and one step ahead.
2. rumble said...
Work for who?
3. paul said...
Exactly rumble.
THAT's the important question isn't it!
The media has been unquestioning sold on the idea from on high that deflation is a terrible thing. But what is really terrible about it is that it inflates the massive debts we are in publically and privately.
If QE doesn't work, the people who have refused to be a part of the mad charade will be rewarded over time.
4. stillthinking said...
The comments after the article are pretty spot on. The UK is paying over the odds for debt and the result will be to lower sterling. Keeping the price up with printed money is absurd.
How on earth can you keep the price of gilts up by issuing more gilts to buy them? You can't. So the only effective price maintainer is the printed funds, and when the printing stops, down goes the price, and as the printing continues, down goes the currency.
Also, it is rather ingenious to suggest the BoE wants the bulk of the purchases to come from pension funds and insurance companies, i.e. those obligated to hold gilts.
Is there a real international market for UK gilts? They made a huge loss over the last year against other currencies.
Much easier on the mind to accept that the government is printing to meet current expenditure. That notwithstanding, personally I see nothing wrong with an expansion of base money, cheaper all round.
5. crunchy said...
2. rumble said..."Work for who?"
Work for the interest making banks of course. If it was for us we would have QE with big tax cuts. Now there's an idea!
A. Slave.
6. paul said...
I liked the way that in the exchange of letters between Darling and King, it was King's suggestion that they use the printed money to buy government debt, because if Darling had suggested it, it would have looked like a Zimbabwean begging bowl moment.
7. paul said...
Hey here's a thought.
Could it be that th reason Mervyn King is so confident QE will work because it is going to eventually send sterling crashing down, sending inflation upwards?
So this money merry-go-round that appears to be taking place right now serve no other purpose than as a market signal - "SELL STERLING .... SELL STERLING"
8. tick tock said...
Paul,
Yes.
PS. Sell your stirling!
9. debtfree said...
STERLING IS F**KED.
Along with the rest.