Tuesday, Mar 10, 2009
February house prices fall faster
Reuters: RICS survey - the quickening of the fall
"The fall in house prices in England and Wales accelerated in February and average sales over the previous three months hit its lowest in more than 30 years, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said on Tuesday. The RICS monthly price balance fell to -78.3 from -76.6, though it remains above last September's record low of -84.5. Average sales completed per surveyor sank to 9.5 for the three months to February from 9.8 in the previous survey, the lowest since the RICS started the series in 1978." --- [Does that take into account the number of surveyors who have lost their jobs?] "A shortage of mortgage finance and growing worry about job security has put many Britons off buying a new home. Surveyors expected prices to continue to fall over the next three months."
9 Comments
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1. mark wadsworth said...
That is incredible.
All we've had so far from RICS is the usual VI bull about "recovery is around the corner", I can only assume that they are putting in some special pleading, maybe a multi million pound bail out from the taxpayer or something?
2. drewster said...
Mark,
That's the Reuters spin on the figures. If you can track down the original press release (I had a quick look last night but couldn't find it) then you might see a more bullish spin.
3. a saver said...
Good news thanks Drewster.
Just saw the BBC figures including Scotland that came out in Feb. Didn't post because it's probably been posted before.
These show that although Scotland is way behind the curve, prices fell very sharply in the last quarter -11% in Edinburgh!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/regions/html/region12.stm
4. Eternal Sceptic said...
So much for the spring bounce then. Let the guvmint try to put a positive spin on that!
5. peter_2008 said...
OMG, I sought the worst was behing us. I am keen to find out how many EAs have lost their jobs!
6. str 2007 said...
As I've said before I've seen a pick up in sales recently (South Hampshire), it'll be interesting to see given these figures how many of the 'sales' re-appear when buyers realise we haven't hit the bottom yet and/or surveyors down value for mortgage purposes.
7. uncle tom said...
At the risk of seeming smug, this is panning out exactly as I said it would, way back in 2003.
House prices are in freefall, because there is no factor out there that can arrest the fall.
Even if you offered FTB's 125% mortgages at 0% for five years, they wouldn't bite; because no-one wants to catch a falling knife.
Nor can the govt buy into the market to support prices, because the market is just too big.
Home sellers are unlikely to concede much more than 2% drops per month, so activity will remain very thin.
The big issue now is just how many homeowners will decide that bankruptcy is the easier path.
A few years ago, this govt made bankruptcy much less onerous - I predict that they will soon find themselves forced to reverse that change, to stop the number of bankruptcies getting out of control.
8. Liddiard said...
I just don't understand why people like RICS just don't get it, how can the property market recover if we are returning to sensible lending levels, surely the two do not go hand in hand do they? I start to read some artilcles that appear to be making more sense yet half way through , despite the article saying something like "property prices are starting to be come more affordable than they have in 6 years" (confirming property prices have NOT been affordable thus irresponsible lending), the article will still say something like "there are signs the market is bottoming out" then conclude but "prices will probably continue to fall for a long time to come." I don't know, perhaps it is just me, but surely if lending levels are returning to sensible levels (which they appear to be and the FSA have said they will regulate the mortgage market), so that mean 3.25 loan to income one wage or 2.5 two wages whichever is the highest, then the market is NOT GOING TO RETURN TO WHERE IT WAS IN 2007 for a long long time is it? There isn't going to be a sudden surge in the property market pushing house prices up and up, because we can't afford to allow the market to inflate, and surely NOBODY can doubt this given the size of the debt the UK has got itself in allowing house prices to inflate. Either wages have to go up 40% or property prices have to drop back to being affordable at 3.25 loan to income ratios what other options are there, when the road we have just travelled for a decade allowing property prices to increase 190% has just landed the UK and a million or more home owners in bankruptcy?
9. shining wit said...
I agree wholeheartedly Uncle Tom.
The denial stage is soon going to end. The falling knif metaphor is most apt.
I too see a reversal of the dreadful relaxing of the bankruptcy laws, but propbably not before this shower are thrown from office.
On channel 4 and 19.57 last night the channel occasionally introducesx plitical comments instead of the useual 3 minutes piece. Last night it was the Labour party. A succession of no hopers from Alistar Darling to Hazel Blears were are roped in to say their piece. To a man (that means you hazel) they simply reiterated the old "the tories would be far worse" mantra. After 10 years in government they have absolutely nothing positive to say.
I remember the 1979 election when all the pundits said that people wouldn't vote for a woman, let alone a tory woman..... This situation reminds me of this time and again........"They'll never vote for a load of toffs whe went to eton, never"......