Monday, Feb 16, 2009
UK in deep depression, 10000's loosing their jobs but the Express says.....
Daily Express - who else??: HOME SELLERS LIFT THE GLOOM
''EVIDENCE the property market could be turning the corner was growing yesterday after new figures showed asking prices jumped last month as New Year sellers defied the economic gloom. A £2,593 rise in asking prices during the four weeks to February 7 for homes in England and Wales lifted them 1.2 per cent to an average £216,163, according to website Rightmove.'' Yes, but asking prices isn't real money!
Posted by hpwatcher @ 06:47 AM (2646 views) Add Comment
77 Comments
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1. Mikelivingstone said...
Interesting that the have your function is not available on the Mails Website for this story,
2. flashman said...
I've been cheering on the house price crash and have profited from it. In early 2007 I sold my house. In early 2008 I shorted banking and real estate stocks BUT and this is a very big BUT (I feel a rap song coming on).....I am not so sure anymore. I used to read this site because I despised the Hyacinth Bucket classes with their preposterous property obsession. I then realised that this site is a useful gauge of sentiment and started posting a bit because I wanted to find out more. I am now sensing a great deal of fragility of opinion. Even the mildest of optimistic articles seems to send people into a spin. Where are all the crazy gold people with their end of the world is nigh stuff? Go on, I dare you to tell me that gold has kept its' value because of that Roman Toga nonsense! (It's not true by the way).
Am I smelling the faintest whiff of a distant bottom?
3. debtfree said...
@ 1. flashman
"Am I smelling the faintest whiff of a distant bottom?"
Only your own :o)
4. flashman said...
debtfree: I already made that joke.
5. hpwatcher said...
I am now sensing a great deal of fragility of opinion. Even the mildest of optimistic articles seems to send people into a spin.
Nah, my post is in reference to the usual daily express bull. I could just have easily posted this article12 months ago, and in fact probably did........
Moreover I would expect house prices to rise a bit, though the overall trend would be down.
You call the bottom if you want to.
6. debtfree said...
@ 3.flashman
yes sir.
hail to the flashman.
Whats with the dig at gold bugs who have so far been correct ?
7. 51ck-6-51x said...
A distant one, yes.
8. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
The headline is somewhat misleading and the second half of the article points to a 10% drop for 2009.
Anything SmartnewHomes has to say is not worth reading - first half of the article.
9. flashman said...
hpwatcher: I don't expect house prices to rise even temporarily. I'm betting on another 30% fall. Just a bit concerned that there may be some fear in the air.
debtfree: there used to be much more gold/doom stuff. Just worried about a softening of sentiment. Someone lectured me about gold keeping its value because of togas and suit buying. I was just a bit surprised that this is taken as gospel.
10. sold out said...
you must have a really good sense of smell flashman.
11. jackas said...
The more vocal gold bugs have been banned for whatever reason.
The less vocal ones are right here. Beware money illusion flashman - the authorities want you to be stupid enough to fall for it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_illusion
12. mdmick said...
I was talking to a BTL person this week. He has done his mathematics on his calculator and believes that now is a great time to buy.
Even if property continues to fall, the calculator says that this is a nice price bracket to jump in at.
I think that the magic calculator was a problem before: people confirming to each other that rising prices were correct because the magic calculator said so. For years, posters to this site have been using a different type of calculator. However, if enough people have faith in the magic calculator then house prices will have a stabilisation effect from BTL people competing for these 'bargains' [see the quotes around 'bargains'; Timmy T, did you see what I did there? ;) ]
13. greytornado said...
Perhaps house prices have gone up a shade; but when you consider that the pound has shed more than 25% of its value in not many weeks, the point is meaningless. Oh - and on the gold thing, someone who seriously bought into gold coins only a short time ago is looking at interesting gains............................or to put it another way, their money has kept its value and not depreciated. OK, perhaps some may laugh at those promoting gold as a safe haven, they certainly would not be laughing had they lived thru the Weimar Republic, for they would know that gold was the only practical way of preserving what you had then and so the same will be again. Ignore the lessons of history at your peril.
14. debtfree said...
@ 8. flashman
"Someone lectured me about gold keeping its value because of togas and suit buying. I was just a bit surprised that this is taken as gospel."
This doesn't make any sense and ' not sure that your lecture was a very good one.
Gold keeps it value against currencies, not BECAUSE of a suit or toga ?
A coin that has silver or gold content is worth more than the face value of the coin because of currency destruction.
1946 - 1964 Silver Roosevelt Dime Value came in denominations of $0.10.... smelted it's worth $1.
15. flashman said...
jackas: Didn't know they had been banned (relative newcomer). Nothing particularly against gold. It's just that the toga story is rubbish
16. Captain Sensible said...
Whether it is disinformation or just plain stupidity, I can understand the desire by certain parts of society to increase positivity. However, this positivity could be in encouraging people to change their attitudes towards property as an investment, along the lines of 'a natural correction in overpriced housing is better for everyone in the longterm'.
Whatg it shows is that the writers of these stories with their ridiculous bias, believe that people are going to accept these figures and then go out and buy a property. Only problem is that they generally have to sell their own first...oh dear.
Even then, they are supposed to be able to get a mortgage based on an estate agents (vendor's) asking price? I mean COME ON! The bank will valiue the property at what it believes to be a SAFE and reasonable figure considering unprecedented market conditions.
Then...NO SALE at that price. EVERYBODY loses.
What we need is a sharp correction to reasonable asking prices. NOT as in the case of agents near me, INCREASING a price on a property that sold in January of last year at £450K to £485K this January. Are the mad?
Do these peopel actually think that when anyone is spending punds that go into the hundred thousands they will not do any research on Land Data Registry sites?
We are in crazy times. 3 million unemployed by the end of the year, Europe just about to go belly up.
BUT HOUSE PRICES UP!
The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool. As you Like it, William Shakespeare
17. flashman said...
debtfree: Since I’ve been reading this site, I keep hearing about one gold coin buying a toga 2000 years ago and how the same gold coin will still buy you a suit today. I though about this for a minute and looked up the price of Roman fabric.
In ancient Rome 500 grams of decent fabric literally cost about 10 human beings. This is because ancient Romans lacked the production machines that make cheap fabric a reality.
They have now, unfortunately, banned the sale of human beings so I’ll have to estimate… but I imagine that 500 grams of decent fabric in this highly mechanized world, are now only worth a finger or at most a big toe.
The serious point is that if you go into Topman or TopToga today and buy a Suit with your unit of gold, then you are buying something that is worth significantly less in relative terms than it was in Roman times. Ergo gold has lost significant value since Roman times.
Obviously it is far more complex than my frivolous (but still factual) example might lead you to believe. Mass production and changing social mores have voided the validity of most value comparisons. Salesmen (including gold salesmen) love to prey on fearful people with their convincing patter. The trick is to look for the slight of hand before reaching for your wallet.
PS even if nothing had changed since Roman times, it wouldn’t excite me too much that my investment (the gold coin) hadn’t gone up in value in 2000 years. Reminds me of that bible story where the loser son spends his money on booze and the boring son digs a hole in the ground. The good son invests his cash and gets a pat on the back. I’d rather be the boozing son or even the smartypants investing son. Does anyone seriously want to go to their dad and say, “look, here’s the suit you gave me 2000 years ago. It’s covered in mud but at least I haven’t lost money like those blokes with their fancy chariots and slicked back hair”?
18. 51ck-6-51x said...
flashman...
"In Roman times, one gold coin could be exchanged for a toga. Now, its value is about 400 pounds, what it costs for a decent suit," said Paul Tustain, chief executive of Bullionvaults.com, an online gold trading company. "Gold holds its value over history like nothing else. In times of turbulence it's a safety raft."
from this article
Gold tends to hold it's value in the ultra-long-term because supply and demand stay relatively fixed; of course there are exceptions to every rule - in bad times, for example, the price gets pushed up as more people invest in it as a hedge against disaster; whereas during good times one can make far more elsewhere.
19. jackas said...
Falshman
As Ive said on here before you can safely assume most conspiraloons are gold bugs - the problem with this site is the asumption was that most gold bugs were conspiraloons which is in my view is a tad unfair.
I haven't heard the toga theory you refer to. It sounds to be like its a theoy that goes back to Roman times and attempts to put the finger on the reasons the Roman Empire failed. I've seen concensus that history shows that the four pillars of the death-knoll of any empire has been
1. Overstretched military
2. Fiat Currency/widespread money illusion
3. High debt and consumption within the empire population (high investment and production by the colonies and enemies of the empire)
4, A fat, lazy (probably toga-wearing / reality TV-watching), apathetic mollycoddled ignorant conceited self righteous bubble-wrapped elitist skill-less and politically fractured population. Who probably think they deserve wealth in return for no work.
There you go - I've mentioned togas. I must be mental.
20. flashman said...
51ck-6-51x
see my post @15
I actually have a bit of gold in my portfolio. All I trying to say is don’t get sucked into another potential bubble. Allowing gold to be portrayed as a knight in shining amour to your maiden in distress will only end in tears. Most shining knights have ulterior motives. Once they’ve “saved” you they’ll leave the next morning with a nasty grin on their face. You, on the other hand will be looking for a bottle of penicillin.
Instead of impotently hating bankers and fearing another real estate boom, why not make some money at their expense. Short their stocks into the dirt. Go short on house prices in the futures market. You’ll actually make some money out your justified loathing and help the crash process accelerate into the bargain.
21. tyrellcorporation said...
I read that gold is disappearing at a much faster rate than it is being mined and has been for years. Primarily through industrial production wastage, general refuse wastage, normal loss (as in people losing it). People snuffing it and the stuff being buried (teeth, rings, etc, etc). The supply side does seem to be under pressure and demand seems to be ralatively constant or (as is the case now) rising fast. I haven't got any gold because I've always bottled it as its price seems so volatile - right now I'm cursing that decision.
22. jackas said...
@15 Falshman,
It's easy to knock gold bugs if you think they are answering the question "what should I invest in for the next 2000 years?"
But that's not the question they are answering. They are answering the question "How can I defend the real value of my savings, for which I have no productive investment purpose and hence will be mostly held in cash, whilst the government deliberately exponentially expands the money supply and by definition devalues the currency?"
23. titaniccaptain said...
@Flashman
Here is a place where the broader and more open debate will be soon........ which will put alot into wealth preservation i,e, gold and such matters that are seen to be off topic and not suitable for this site which has tightened its stance as being more towards direct influences on the housing market more recently and less to do with potential governing factors......
24. flashman said...
jackas: gold may go up, gold may go down.
25. greytornado said...
@22 Jackas - dead right - absolutely spot on.
26. mountain goat said...
Flashman @9.18 - gold is my way of going short on the fiat funny money. Gold the next bubble? I hope so. Rather than make me sell it, I am more inclined to hold onto it quite a bit longer, but I do plan to sell at the top LOL. As the financial situation gets worse one bubble is replacing another, dot com, real estate, commodities, Treasuries. Well gold is next IMO. Fear, debt collapse and money printing are only going to get worse. Gold fell in price in October because of ??? In fact ETFs saw record buying during this period as the gold price fell.
27. jackas said...
@24 Falshman
So may the purchasing power of your currency. And at the moment that's going down.
28. mark wadsworth said...
Captain Sensible #16 - spot on! "What it shows is that the writers of these stories with their ridiculous bias, believe that people are going to accept these figures and then go out and buy a property. Only problem is that they generally have to sell their own first...oh dear."
Anecdotal - I have a BTL friend who is laughing because all his mortgages are tracker mortgages, but BTLing in any serious degree involves borrowing, I checked a couple of online calculators and it appears nigh impossible to get a new BTL mortgage nowadays. And frankly, if deluded BTLers want to subsidise my renting lifestyle for a few years, then good luck to them.
29. shipbuilder said...
1. House price crashes ALWAYS follow the same pattern - we have years to go yet.
2. House prices NEVER recover while the economy is still in recession.
3. There will be people calling the bottom EVERY month from now on, just as they have in the US for years now.
4. Sellers will ALWAYS be unrealistic.
30. titaniccaptain said...
Alot of sense coming through today on this thread.........best one for a while
31. flashman said...
jackas: that is my point exactly. NEVER pin your hopes on any one thing (including gold). It is interesting that you automatically assume that I must be a currency fan because I urge caution and balance. I am a professional trader. I hold absolutely no allegiance to any asset class. The gold coin worth a toga/suit is a silly story that actually shows gold tumbling in value (see my post @ 17). The question you should ask is: why does Paul Tustain of Bullionvaults.com pedal this story? Why does he feel the need to? Does he believe it?…in which case he lacks the training and rigor to proffer economic theory
32. p. doff said...
I'm thinking of setting up a website called Goldpricecrash so that all the clever 'investors' who have jumped on the GoldPI bandwagon, can troll the non-believers who think that gold is just another bubble that has been orchestrated to suck in the masses to transfer wealth to the illuminati prior to the orchestrated bust.
33. flashman said...
titaniccaptain: I'm sure everyone is very proud of your approval. Have you got anything to contribute?
34. titaniccaptain said...
@Flashman
I think one of the reasons for this gold speculation is because of golds historic place as a refuge for preserving wealth.........even though there is no direct reason for gold going up in value when a currency fails in terms of market value there is an underlying belief by joe public that gold is a safe haven...now that speculation may have weight..I agree with you that gold can go up and down but I feel that if it all started going t#ts up for the currency then at that moment everyone would develop the herd mentality and dive into gold..............I am still undecided at the moment..........right now I dont see how quantitative easing can filter down to the man in the street if the banks dont lend .........sorry I dont and therefore for now cash is king IMNVHO (In my not very humble opinion).........if they start throwing cash from the rooftops..........then I am going into gold.......but I really dont know why you guys are not looking at arigultural land which is still going up in price!!!!!!........agricultural land has more use than gold......
35. titaniccaptain said...
@flashman 33
"I'm sure everyone is very proud of your approval."..........
I bestow my blessings upon this thread
36. flashman said...
titaniccapatin: you are spot on in my MELHO (in my even less humble opinion). I actually own a small holding in Dorset. I also own gold.
37. Eastleighfan said...
So , asking prices are up !!
Well , I have an old rusty 3 speed bike in my shed , I am asling around £200 for it . I only paid £15 from a dump ,so it just goes to prove that 2nd hand bicycles are rising in value fast . Hurry now, and buy before they becone unafordable !!!!!
38. letthemfall said...
It's noteworthy that the arguments offered a couple of years ago for endlessly high house prices were low unemployment, low interest rates and housing shortages. Apart from low interest rates (which are really emergency interest rates and no longer a measure of credit availability), these are no longer true.
Unemployment is forecast to rise a lot. House prices are still above trend (and reversion to mean is about the only reliable law in economics). There are still enormous bad debts out there. Credit is very restricted. Rents are now falling (no shortage of places to live then).
Where, then, is the money to come from to make house prices rise again? A handful of Russian oligarchs buying up UK housing stock? Perhaps one difference between this and the previous crash is the intensity of those trying to reverse the decline, far more so than I remember last time.
39. timmy t said...
Captain Sensible @ 16 "What it shows is that the writers of these stories with their ridiculous bias, believe that people are going to accept these figures and then go out and buy a property."
I disagree - This stupid paper isn't interested in people buying property, it's interested in people buying its newspaper. It knows that a lot of people want to see house prices increase and will buy the paper to give them some hope to cling on to.
40. jackas said...
Falshman.
Another false assumption that people make is that gold bugs own nothing but gold. That's nonsense too - I have no more than 10% of my wealth in gold and silver and for me that feels about right.
It's interesting that people are more than happy to buy insurance against things like their house catching fire when the odds of that happening are negligible. I am not predicting a global failure of all fiat currency taking us into a new dark age, but I think the chances of a serious reduction in purchasing power is more likely than my house burning down. So I bought some insurance.
41. bluebeach said...
Excellent postings.... riveting read.. keep it up..
42. Loaded And Waiting said...
If (and it's still a very big if) house prices are creeping up a little it's only because of cash buyers, and those with large deposits, re-entering the market. Most of these people have cash in UK banks, which they will be withdrawing to make their (foolish) purchase. I think you can see where I'm going - less deposits in UK banks = even less to lend mortgages against. For every £100K withdrawn that's probably several £100K less available for mortgage lending, hence a net reduction in demand for housing. So any dead cat bounce is exactly that, so let's all stop worrying and laugh at the plonkers blowing their cash on a depreciating asset!
43. will said...
Could be that the more expensive homes are coming on the market.
44. Titaniccaptain said...
@Mike livingstone1
From the mail
"However, the flood of enquiries is not bringing a sales boom because banks and building societies are continuing to refuse to lend, according to property website Rightmove.co.uk, which produced the figures.
The finance giants are picking only the most credit-worthy buyers - those with big deposits.
The surge in enquiries has shocked estate agents, who have made thousands of staff redundant in the past year due to a slump in business."....says it all really.........I really think we will see houses of 300 grand in value (Ha ha) on peak selling for 30/40 grand.......Its all collapsing...it really is............we are heading into a financial meltdown with banks going POP all around us...here is a question.........why isnt northern (Browns flagship) rock lending at 2007 levels?.........because it isnt profitable to do so? if he had influence to start lending at 2007 levels then surely NR would be the bank that he WOULD have influence over????
45. titaniccaptain said...
@will 41
its the middle class being knocked for 6 by the depression putting their homes on the market believing that they will get top buck for it because their house is different!!!!!!!.........they are having to sell because jobs in the finance and service industries and the supporting industries for both said industries are taking the biggest whack in the dangly bits........and are hopeing to rent.....like alot on this site but the only difference is they are 2 years too late.....
46. shipbuilder said...
My view on gold is that its value is dependant on it being seen as a store of wealth, which is fine, only these days, in the wonderful world of the internet, other commodities are just as easy to invest in. In my opinion this will dilute gold as a safe haven and the upside may not be as much as people think.
47. will said...
TC @ 42
I sold 3 years ago, maybe too soon, but once this is over I should be a winner. I think this downturn will last many more years, we are still in the denial phase, 'yes my house is really worth it', until they try to sell.
48. Haz said...
The increase in asking prices is irrelevant to me. They are already far too high. I refused to borrow more than 3 times my salary when the economy was in boom times as I didn't like the look of the amount that I would have had to pay back in interest. Now I know my job is no longer secure and thousands of people are being laid off each day, I cannot say for sure that I would EVER be able to pay back ANY mortgage in future.
49. mdmick said...
p. doff@32,
How about: BullionFault
or GoldFlush
or
GoldMinger ?
50. james stephenson said...
There is nothing in the economy or on the horizon that can stop prices crashing further. 30% IMO.
There is no money out there. Unemployment is rising. Why would the banks go on a lending splurge as the government wants when they know that people will be losing jobs in vast numbers and ending up in negative equity.
And if people cannot see the big picture and what is headed our way (potential systemic collapse - IMF loans etc.) then they are not paying attention or are schizo-optimists.
We all may end up in rented property.
How can anyone be bullish at this time except for the most ininformed?
51. str 2007 said...
james stephenson
''We all may end up in rented property.''
Who do you expect would own this rented property ?
52. Mr G said...
flashman said: Instead of impotently hating bankers and fearing another real estate boom, why not make some money at their expense. Short their stocks into the dirt. Go short on house prices in the futures market. You’ll actually make some money out your justified loathing and help the crash process accelerate into the bargain.
This is a genuine question, can someone please explain how you short house prices in the futures market? as I would be only too pleased to make some money this way and help the crash accelerate.
53. titaniccaptain said...
@James stephenson
do you mean nationalisation of all homes?
54. little professor said...
p doff - I was surprised to see that there is already a site http://www.goldpricecrash.com which looks like it has been up and running for a while
55. titaniccaptain said...
@LP
Its been there a while and is very much like this site in that the site holds a stance........one of the things im looking forward to on The Economic Voice is trying to get the bulls in there aswell as the bears....and vice versa when it comes to gold etc.....im looking forward to seeing real debate like we used to have here with bulls like greenbay and also a rounder debate.....sometimes I miss the more off the wall threads even if I diddnt take the view point of the conspiritor
56. sold 2 rent 1 said...
I wish these anti-gold bugs would stop saying "Gold will be another bubble"
Of course gold WILL be another bubble
Of course gold WILL be another bubble
….and a big one too
One more time…
Of course gold WILL be another bubble
But does that mean don't buy – NO – But you need to know when to sell
The reason it will be a mad mania (in March/April 2010) is because we will see currencies and stocks and property get battered so hard.
Most small investors will lose money on gold as they don't understand when to buy or sell.
And then we will almost certainly have an attempt to confiscate gold by the G8 between April and September 2010.
Attempted gold confiscation may be the final straw to trigger the revolution we need - I hope so.
57. shining wit said...
very good comments chaps....
Gold will probably rise because of existing sentiment in hard times but because of the interent and diversity of possible investments it could tank sooner that people think.I honestlty can't see the bottom of the property market yet, I think it will take another year for anyone to realistically see it. But if you buy gold at today's price be careful you don't get caught in the crash (IMO when the US starts selling it's houses again and buying new pickups and SUVs)
Japan is tanking, so is Germany and of Course the US, so the 3 largest economies are going to see a record economic shrinkage in the next year. The banks in the UK have made our problems worth, they have played way, way above their weight and can just about (we hope) keep themselves solvent by restricting lending to all but the most secure as they repair their shredded balance sheets. There is no shortage of property in the UK anymore (never was, there was just a binge on trying to make 15% a year on easy credit fuelling it) because you cannot make any real income from them at the present time (re the renewed speculation in other investments gold/land - be careful of agricutlural land, becasue their may wel be a reduced demand for agro products through reduced worldwide consumption). The middle class (as titaniccaptain reports) are being hit the most. There is a large percentage of these that have put ALL their eggs in the property basket and have been burnt badly and will need a few years to recover.
This is undoubtedtly a worldwide recession-depression and the only way out of it is to take the medicine of reduced credit and economic growth and then in 2-4 years the worst will be over and the reduced economies will have an oppurtunity for growth.
58. james stephenson said...
titanic captain, little professor & str 2007
Property will be owned by councils/housing authorities.
I believe there will be mass repossessions over the next few years.
1. Many people are in negative equity
2. Millions more will fall into negative equity
3. These people cannot remortgage and stay on variable rate
4. Interest rates, set artifically low, mean many of these people can currently make payment on their houses
5. Interest rates will not stay low and are likely to rise massively as cheap imports from China etc. dry up (and quantitive easing?) mean inflation rises
6. Triple Whammy - Unemployment, High Inflation, High Interest Rates - (imagine what 1980s style 20% would do to us at the moment)
The government is either stupid enough to pay people's mortgages for them, or will need to massively expand rented accomodation. There is no credit for BTLers to take up the slack, and most have already been burned and wiped out anyway.
All in all, a continuation of a movement of wealth away from the middle class to government and the already wealthy which so far has characterised this credit crunch.
59. james stephenson said...
"his is undoubtedtly a worldwide recession-depression and the only way out of it is to take the medicine of reduced credit and economic growth and then in 2-4 years the worst will be over and the reduced economies will have an oppurtunity for growth."
- shiningwit@52
There will be no recovery for Britain.
1. The things that have generated wealth over the last decades have gone - North Sea Oil (we will soon be net importers), The City of London & lately the housing/credit bubble.
2. Government policy has been to let manufacturing die, because we could all survive from making money off money.
3. We have lost our skill & knowledge base
4. We have bred a generation of work-shy delinquents that have atrophied on the dole or on the 'sick'
5. No one studies maths/science etc, but would rather ger degrees in photography, interior design and Britney Spears
6. Educational standards across the board have tanked - I am a manager in the Water Industry and people coming from School are shockingly uneducated and cannot think for themselves - people coming from University likewise after paying through the nose for a worthless bit of paper and the priviledge of being a debt slave before they even own a house.
7 The only way out of this depression will be to manufacture - we no longer have the ability to compete - other Countries are far better placed and will also be able to attract the existing skill base.
8. As Jim Rogers says - Britain is finished - Sterling is finished.
9. I hope the English don't mind living in a Third World Country.
60. will said...
I off to labour in China.
61. jack c said...
@james stephenson (Monday, February 16, 2009 03:02PM) - very good (but utterly depressing) analysis - sad to see Britain in this mess and I agree "there will be no recovery for Britain" as we are cattle trucked.
62. sold out said...
James Stepenson,
Crikey thats a pretty pesimistic view.
I have also come to similar conclusions that you state in 1,2,3,5 and 7.
2 yrs ago when i STR i was just hoping to be able to eventually buy a house again in the UK and be Morgage free.
Now i am beginning to question if i want to stay in this country, because it is really looking terrible.
The meltdown of the banking system is likely to still be costing taxpayers in 2025, and thats a conservative estimate.
What prospects are there going to be for my son when he grows up in the UK?
It may be time to plan an escape route out of here, rather than buying a cheap property in 2010-2011 and being trapped here.
No more Boom and Bust,should now read no more Boom.
63. shining wit said...
James stephenson @ 54....
I presume you no longer live on this island then. but
1. Agreed, but there is always a means of making money, selling raw materials and credit aren't the only ways.
2. Manufacturing has been greatly reduced, as it has in almost all western countries. We do still make somethings.
3. We have not lost all our skill and knowledge base - There is a massive increase in overseas students, some from advanced countries.
4. The benefits system has to be radically overhauled and the Tories will certainly have a go.
5. You forgot to mention media studies, journalism and other very useful qualifications (nvq's in washing hands and sandwich preparation)
6. Wot arr yu tawking abowt, evrybodi in de UK iz brill at doin stuf, so wat iff day all spik englo-jamaycan.
7. Someone has to buy the plastic junk made in the far east.
8. I think Jim Rodgers is another vested interest - Making money from currency is by far and away the easiest way to turn a few million dollars into 10 million dollars - The US is actually in a very similar boat as the UK only their ship is much bigger but it's fear of anything with a social angle to it means it relies completely on a private sector that has had it's head up it's @rse for 60 years not realising that it cannot function without one (social angle).
9. Then the whole of Europe is going to be third world. France cannot afford it's ridiculous policies regarding it's quasi-socialist benefits and other systems and will bankrupt itself in anopther 30 years paying pensions to people for 25-35 years after retirement, and let's see how the recession affects the Germans and the millions who are already not working since reunification. Ireland, Spain and other countries are also being driven into the ground in what, for them, is their first real property bubble crash and reliance on the Euro in a system that will not give a hoot about the smaller economies. Imagine what would happen to the euro if even just Ireland decides to leave the eurozone!
Just saying the UK is finished is like joining the tin foil hat brigade, yes we need to manufacture much more, I agree with you there, and we need to get the work shy and the reliance of million on benefits from these ridiculous levels, but that is the problem with a post-industrial country. What we really need to do is rid ourselves of the dogma that the Conservatives and labour party have done to the place in the last 60 years.
Just wait until the emerging economies start becoming the target of million of economic migrants like the UK and Europe have in the last few decades.
Revolution anyone?.......No didn't think so......Expect the right wing back-lash to start about 2018 in my opinion.
64. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Plenty of people staring into the abyss today.
That is good news
Remember you can only see the good stuff after you have stared into the abyss.
As for North Sea Oil and debt-based banking - these are NOT required in the new world anyway
Who knows, maybe the UK will lead the way in the free/dark energy revolution?
If change can only come from chaos, we are likely to get both first.
65. sneaker said...
Tractor production is up, comrades!
Come celebrate the record harvest with me!
Regards
Император в новую одежду
66. titaniccaptain said...
phew James S.........
I am afraid I agree with you...we have lost knowlage and skill in manufacturing as we have transfered our skils to the financial and service sectors which are f#cked........I think we need to revaluate ourselves as a country and try to build a system based on the needs of the country and not the individual making a quick buck...and also what is it to be british? what does it mean? what do we represent as a country in the world economy. What is it that britain is better at than anywhere else and what do we produce to export?........what natural resources or skills does the u.k. have that sets us apart from the rest of the world which is not part of the service industry?......alot of questions I know but vital in finding our way forward because the old way is gone..........its over and we are in deep doo dar because of it. I am not going to preach my christian faith but it has to be recognised that before the age of enlightenment our identity was that of a christian country with the church at its centre and that gave a sense of purpose even if you hate the church its still remains a fact that THAT was the way it was....post enlightenment we are left with out that unifying concept we are adrift in the english channel with only small cultural fads and styles to keep us afloat thats why we have become obsessed with the celebrity culture because of a great black hole left from once being unified in our ideology which has created this me me me society......was it thatcher? was it blair? or are they the administers of the logical conclusion of a country that no longer has an identity?...........tin hat on
67. shining wit said...
titaniccaptain.......But surely:
"before the age of enlightenment our identity was that of a christian country with the church at its centre and that gave a sense of purpose" - Absolute tosh and obllocks.
Was that the time when we were bashing the fuzzi-wuzzies and "enlightening" people (hindus, muslims, in the east and millions of africans etc) all around the world with our wonderful empire, making oodles of cash exploiting their resources and labour, converting them from their heretical beliefs into the one true god? Or perhaps when the poor were sent half way around the world to work in enslavement for stealing a couple of loaves of bread ? Maybe it was when we we're seprating children from their perants in an attempt to subdue their cultures (australia-aborigines), or when women who were unfortunately not married, were treated like prostitues for having sex with men?
you say you "I am not going to preach my christian faith " and then try and justify your statement implying that a county's identity is based around believing what some believe is a fantasy story based around a mythical all powerful being.
Just because things are wrong now, doesn't make the past right.
68. titaniccaptain said...
@shining wit........
Read what I said...........you dont have to believe in christianity or the tyranical british empire which used christanity as justification for comiting evil crimes but unified we were in a faith....was that faith manipulated for the gains of the rich and powerfull? yes of course it was.....does it make the past right? no........BUT what I am trying to get across a FACT and that was there was identity and when that identity left we were left trying to find an identity..as for my comment
"before the age of enlightenment our identity was that of a christian country with the church at its centre and that gave a sense of purpose"....yes I stand by that..the age of enlightenment......such trauma has been felt in other ideologies and religions once the ideology has been removed i.e. Russia after the fall of communism there was a power gap left and a unifying sense of identity...Putin himself said something alont the lines of if you want communism back you have no brain..if you dont you have no heart.........Yes christianity and other religions have been manipulated for the gains of the rich and powerfull BUT that is not the point I am making............the point I am making is that when you take something away from a system that has been a core value of that system without replacing it with something to fill that gap......you have a problem...........yes I stand by all that I said in the previous post
69. titaniccaptain said...
@shining wit
"Was that the time when we were bashing the fuzzi-wuzzies and "enlightening" people (hindus, muslims, in the east and millions of africans etc) all around the world with our wonderful empire, making oodles of cash exploiting their resources and labour, converting them from their heretical beliefs into the one true god? Or perhaps when the poor were sent half way around the world to work in enslavement for stealing a couple of loaves of bread ? Maybe it was when we we're seprating children from their perants in an attempt to subdue their cultures (australia-aborigines), ".................no, the age of enlightenment was in the mid 18th century just before India and australia were colonised.......
70. shipbuilder said...
While I am not the most optimistic, I think that a few people are getting carried away today....just remember that every generation thinks the one after is a bunch of thick, useless layabouts. Let's try and keep some perspective - every generation in the working population, even those with 'superior' education such as everyone on here claims, have participated in this madness, all of them blinkered, none capable of thinking for themselves (Tories or Labour, right or left?) Ironically, the core of the problem is our obsession with money and work, which has ruined our wealth and mental and physical health. Some imagination is required - there are alternative ways and systems if we see through the propaganda, spin and lies. Just like debt, more of the same is not required.
71. shining wit said...
TC @ 69....
I think you'll find good old Blighty was bashing other countries for a considerable time before you're interpretation of the age of enlightenment. It took abot 100 years for Darwins evolutionary theories to become commonly accepted and know religion started all this "intelligent" design mumbo jumbo, with parts of America trying to promote this nonsense to children. Religion will always be used for manipulation because, by the time the intellectually challanged believe in the religous doctrine they will believe almost anything (like house prices going up by 20% a year, forever). Religion prevented the advancement of science in so many ways, virtually until the evidence became indisputable. The catholic religion is still helping millions of africans to an early grave by not letting barrier contraception (johnnies to you and me) be used in societies where AIds is an epedemic (does Tony Bliar believe in that, I wonder?).
It wasn't the 'age of enlightenement' that was transporting people to Australia, nor was it them that exploited the indian sub-continent, nor was it the age of enlightment that actively promoted the conversion from one religious belief system to another, It wasn't the age of enlightment' that promoted 'manifest destiny' in the US so they could steal a continent from the native americans it was christian based ideology at the core of the UK when the UK was doing this. Where were the millions of christians shouting from the rooftops that this was against God's will? Religion, as such, isn't the problem, but it is easy to manipulate those who put their 'faith' in belief systems that can be manipulated.
Any advances we made because we started to understand the world through science and started to understand the implications of our actions must surely have been a good thing. Because the same @rseholes who enslaved people through religion, then started blinding people with science doesn't mean that knowledge is bad. Nor religion. Nor science. It does mean that the same manipulative systems are continuing to influence the way the world is governed. No-one gives a tom-t!t about their neighbours, but in reality they didn't much in the past, only the neigbours they could see, not the 'foreign' people over there, that don't believe in our God!
I agree that the christian basis in most western countries did stop the masses from turning into idiots on a larger scale and gave them a moral compass but it is and will always be, a source of political manipulation. Look at the neo-con far right nutters in the US. I doubt if many of those in power actually believe the crap they spout, it's just a soapbox to bleet from and make money from.
Karl Marx got many things wrong but I think "Religion is the opium of the masses" was, and still is true, today. I absolutely and unmovingly believe that religious freedom is at the core af any sort of freedom (as long as it is not manipulated for hurting or enslaving people or indeed anything) .
I also agree that the church did give a sense of purpose to many who needed it, and many may have been better off because of it. But people now believe in 'celebrity' making money, driving status symbols and shagging anything that moves. They believe in making something for nothing (property - gold speculation), and as James stephenson pointed out earlier, we don't make anything. Surely making things, producing something, can be of use.
And our society simply goes along with it so the rich can stay rich, market it, produces it and then sell it to the 'believers' in buckets from the nearest high street. The people with the power will always try an manipulate the stupid and the greedy and the easlily led.
Sold 2 rent 1 is right when he says there will be a massive change of consciousness, I just don't agree with his timescale.
72. titaniccaptain said...
@shining wit.........lol a debate at last!!!!!!! but I do fail to see why your making this a religious debate rather than my point about the loss of a belief system to leave a gap in psyche of that country.....
"I think you'll find good old Blighty was bashing other countries for a considerable time before you're interpretation of the age of enlightenment".........yes but I was answeing your points about India and australia..............and good old blighty is still bashing countries with as much gusto as it did pre enlightenment..........all religions, ideologies and systems will be manipulated by those who seek power and wealth and will do anything in their names as justification..........
"It wasn't the 'age of enlightenement' that was transporting people to Australia, nor was it them that exploited the indian sub-continent, nor was it the age of enlightment that actively promoted the conversion from one religious belief system to another, It wasn't the age of enlightment' that promoted 'manifest destiny' in the US so they could steal a continent from the native americans it was christian based ideology at the core of the UK when the UK was doing this. Where were the millions of christians shouting from the rooftops that this was against God's will? Religion, as such, isn't the problem, but it is easy to manipulate those who put their 'faith' in belief systems that can be manipulated.".....I refure the honerable gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago.....>"no, the age of enlightenment was in the mid 18th century just before India and australia were colonised......."
"Karl Marx got many things wrong but I think "Religion is the opium of the masses" was, and still is true, today." .........well im not going to agree there........
"I also agree that the church did give a sense of purpose to many who needed it, and many may have been better off because of it. But people now believe in 'celebrity' making money, driving status symbols and shagging anything that moves. They believe in making something for nothing (property - gold speculation), and as James stephenson pointed out earlier, we don't make anything. Surely making things, producing something, can be of use.
And our society simply goes along with it so the rich can stay rich, market it, produces it and then sell it to the 'believers' in buckets from the nearest high street. The people with the power will always try an manipulate the stupid and the greedy and the easlily led."...........Im with you all the way there
73. titaniccaptain said...
oooopppppsssss spelling is on bad for as usuall........
74. titaniccaptain said...
Anyway im off to have my super and say grace before hand...........you will be my prayers tonight Shining wit :-)
75. shining wit said...
Thanks TC.....
I'm not bashing anyones beliefs, just the belief that the identity was just a cover for dodgy goings on. I wish people would have a bit more of a moral centre rather than justifying 13 yr old dads, endless pursuit of wealth and wanting to do nothing all day but enjoy doing nothing.
I hope your supper is yummy and that the welsh rugby team has shaken off it's massive hangover by now!
Diolch for the prayers. God knows (oops) I could do with some divine intervention.
76. shipbuilder said...
Ah, but shining wit, you're wrong about the 'enjoying doing nothing' bit, at least some of the time...that's when creative inspiration comes. The dull worker drone and wage slave achieves nothing but tiredness. Keep the workers busy lest they think or question....
We should always remember that most, if not all, great inventions, creations and innovations came outside the world of 'work' that we all see as so great.
"If work were so pleasant, the rich would keep it for themselves." - Mark Twain
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