Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009
RICS: house falls balance -76%
Reuters: House price fall quickens and outlook grim
House prices fell at a faster pace in January than in December and the outlook for prices turned gloomier as the number of completed home sales fell, says RICS.
The number of agents reporting price falls exceeded those reporting rises by 76%, up from 73% in December. The average number of transactions dropped to 9.9 per respondent, the lowest since records began three decades ago
However, enquiries from new buyers have risen for the third month in a row.
Posted by little professor @ 12:56 AM (887 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. titaniccaptain said...
Now thats what I call a quick prediction.....see previous post
2. montesquieu said...
More like reality ... Halifax clearly talking complete mince the other day.
3. peter_2008 said...
but, but, but Halifax Index just said there is going to be a 24% jump this year and my local EA just told me this is the rock bottom and there are green shots everywhere!!
I think RICS' figure is always interesting as it is probably closest to the real time market, unlike Haliwide which is based on mortgage, rightmove is based on asking price, hometrack is based in dreamland and the government stats are 3 -6 months behind.
When the balance recover to -5%, I may call it bottom
4. bystander said...
looks like a stand off between those interested in buying and those interested - willing - to sell for whatever the buyer feels the property is worth. Property VI's would probably call these new enquirers 'vultures', but I would be more charitable and call them sensibly helping to lower prices to more sensible and affordable levels. However it is amazing how the main numbers are being ignored by the BBC etc. and they are pushing the increase in enquiries. This article puts more meat on the bones, but most won't have access to, be interested in, reading this sort of article and so the VI push for a 'spring bounce'; builds in momentum. Expect the stand-off to continue until either side capitulates and either prices will drop further or HMG and the media will succeed in generating the fear of 'missing out' again and the HPI will return. This is a very confusing and unstable time for those of us who are waiting patiently (?) for sense to return to the affordability of housing.
5. mark said...
one thing everyone is forgetting no-one can borrow money like they used to..
if you had an average salary of 25k you could have borrowed 400k easily.... NOW you would struggle getting 200k without a 50k downpayment on the same salary
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
- an irrational thing would be for house prices to start increasing again now, which is possible ~ in theory a few big companies could come along and start buying up the properties on the market, but it is more likely that the irrational thing is that the market will overshoot on the downside due to fear and panic (only thing to watch for would be General Inflation [caps as it sounds like a superhero])
mark: Borrowing 200K with a 50K downpayment and a 25K salary would be a multiple of 8 - I think that would be impossible today. (Or do you mean borrow 150K? Even then that's a multiple of 6 which would probably be impossible, wouldn't it?)
7. letthemfall said...
bystander
I don't think there is any realistic chance of house prices taking off again. The money that fed them has gone and won't return in the foreseeable future. All the interest and EA drivel in the world won't change that.
8. rumble said...
How can house prices rise while the economy is tanking - redundancies, foreclosures, lack of credit, fear? Inflationary scenario - people would surely be more concerned with their daily cost of living, and uncertainty of the future, than wanting to take on the burden of property.