Friday, Feb 20, 2009
Rick Santelli slams mortgage bailout
CNBC: Santelli's Chicago Tea Party
Are you listening Obama? Even traders don't believe in the mortgage bailout
Posted by bob1 @ 07:05 AM (565 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. Peter Rocker said...
This is a must-watch! And send the link to your MP ( if you're UK-based ).
2. techieman said...
"Even traders"????? Please explain!
3. bob1 said...
I think I am right in assuming that most people think of traders as being part of the banking/finance world. I therefore found it interesting that 'even traders' share the growing feeling of moral outrage
4. techieman said...
well its just as well you arent in the pits in Chicago or NY - you would be lynched !!! ...Alot of the traders or locals as they are called deal for their own account. It looked a pretty quiet time actually. probably would have been better to say "traders especially dont believe ...".
The traders on the floor are not the same traders that deal in the MBS....you need to see what the floor traders in CBOE, CME and COMEX deal in.
5. bob1 said...
techieman: I'm intrigued. What are these Chicago and NY pit traders like? Do you used to be one?
6. techieman said...
was a floor trader on LIFFE for a while. Cant answer the what are they like as i dont know em!. If you want to be more specific i might be able to help. in 4 words i would say contrarian, caustic, clever and lary. Must be off!
7. jack c said...
@techieman - picking up on one of your posts earlier in the week I noticed you mentioned the market testing 4080 (FTSE) we are now well through that barrier and indeed as I type FTSE 100 is at 3913 (down 105 points) where do you see things headed from here? 3500 -3600
8. bob1 said...
were you one of the Cannon Street boozers (mostly the pit and phone lot) or a coloured jacket?
9. troy said...
Ambitious Obama plan won't stop flood of foreclosures, analysts say
Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Edmund L. Andrews
International Herald Tribune
Thu, 19 Feb 2009 18:59 UTC
© Ross D. Franklin/The Associated Press
A foreclosure sign outside a home for sale in Phoenix, Arizona
The plan drew praise from consumer advocates as well as the financial industry. It could ultimately cost taxpayers as much as $275 billion - $75 billion in direct spending to keep people in their homes and the rest in additional financial backing for the government-controlled mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
But analysts and administration officials alike cautioned that it would not come close to putting a stop to the tidal wave of foreclosures. Nor would it provide much help to millions of homeowners who are "underwater," or holding mortgages that are bigger than the market value of their houses.
10. Peter Rocker said...
Since we're on the subject of CNBC - jack c - for numerical share index predictions you could try typing 'technical ftse' into the Video search box on the cnbc website.
e.g. one result is http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1040027857&play=1
Take your own chances on technical or fundamental analysys, is my view!
11. techieman said...
Jack C - last Sunday i said this - (you were swillin some beer i think):
"hpwatcher - there is (upward sloping) trendline support at 4130. 4080 then represents a 61.8% retracement of the move from 3700 to 4690, 4080 is also slap bang in the middle of alot of market action. If it breaches 4130 to the downside it should rapidly get to 4080, and if it breaches that then yes it goes lower. Is my view that these suport areas will be breached to the downside - yes! Could i be wrong? Of course! But over the last few days i reversed from long to short and built up my position when we had the rally on thurs / frid (went more short). Do i say they WILL go lower - no i dont KNOW i THINK they will go lower and am willing to take some risk that they will.
If 4340 is taken out to the upside then we would look to re-test the 4690 high. A while back i said that after the big falls we would get choppy trading, I now think thats over and we will see downside but yes nothing is certain and if i am wrong this time then i will happily lose money so long as i can have another bite at the bear cherry. If it goes higher than where we are now next week then its highly probable i am wrong."
Anyway so much for that - i did say (but i cant find it) that (I think) we should:
1. Then test the November lows (approx 3700) after 4080 - it actually got to 4080 pretty quickly once the Bulls couldnt hold the trendline, at 4130.
2. I was quite or is that quietly confident it would hit 4080 and i then thought it going lower (I was surprised that there wasnt more support at 4080 tfirst o be honest) was a lower but still >60% probability.
3. The test of the lows - I would put at around the same % probability BUT of course the idea is to get out of some when each target has been reached. I got out of some yesterday and today and have two thirds left. Of course in the meantime we might have a couple of up days (I cant say exactly when i think we will get there) OR we might not.
4. If it breaks the Nov lows then yes we will have some running of the stops but not much - I have said i expected the pattern to be a new low now and then a considerable move back up before more of a collapse. Of course having said that its a bit bullish predicting that pattern as we sink lower.
Moving on from 4 - i think i will be sidelined for a while after this downmove i do look at other stuff and markets, but i dont really say much about em on here as i dont want to be even more boring! To answer your question i will wait and see if and when it hits the lows and maybe update then (it sort of depends if it gets there HOW it gets there). In any cash 3700 would suit me and i would get out of another third around there OCO above some resistance (I havent finalised that yet ... just lowered my stop to b/even for now).
12. techieman said...
bob - i never went to Cannon Street , I was in the Royal Exchange (yes i am that old!) and i wore a red jacket.... Still thats all in the past :-).
By the way take a look : http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_19990815/ai_n14251325
Jack i found it (same thread)
"As for Monday, its a technical issue. If the FTSE 100 breaks around 4080 to the downside im banking on the end of range trading on our way toward testing last years lows. The US markets closed on their lows after (assumption) shaking out the bears with a vicious short covering rally previously."
13. techieman said...
Peter R - yes you are right... You pays your money and takes your chances...
14. techieman said...
Peter R - yes hes pretty good! Calling 3100 and "thats it". Braver man than me but i do "get" the P&Fs and obviously the EW. The cloud is from the japanese candlesticks that i havent used much.
In any case he sounds worth listening to!
15. peter rocker said...
My favourite on CNBC, when he appears, is Hugh Hendry - search CNBC video for "Hugh Hendry".
He was a lot more colourful before the commodities bubble burst, but still very good.
An example from a while ago:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=875223905
It's a shame they don't put the whole show online!