Thursday, Feb 26, 2009
Prices down 1.8% MoM, 17.6% YoY
Nationwide (pdf): "Improving affordability helps buyers"
The average house price lost over £2,700 in value in February. Prices fell 1.8% on the month, after a 1.3% fall in January. The annual rate of decline has increased from 16.6% to 17.6%.
From peak, prices have now fallen by over £38,000 (20.5%0
Commenting on the figures, Nationwide spokeswoman Fionnuala Earley said "blah blah blah improving affordability blah blah low interest rates blah blah increase in new buyer enquiries blah blah blah."
Posted by little professor @ 08:31 AM (2398 views) Add Comment
63 Comments
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1. will said...
Still haven't seen any such falls where I live (The Land of Denial).
2. little professor said...
3. little professor said...
4. Eternal Sceptic said...
Only another 50k to fall. A mere drop in the ocean, compared to what is happening around us.
5. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
Prices are noticeably lower where I am - estimate a visible 15% on asking prices alone.
Interest rate Affordability is only part of the problem.
LTV and Income ratios are not related to interest rates and right now that is what is supressing the market - amongst other things of course.
Like having a job for start - or even just the confidence in having one.
I would say that interest rate changes primarily help current borrowers and doesn't really have much to do with the buying process yet.
What is absurd about this is that people like Fionnuala Earley would prefer to see us not have the extra money in our pockets but would like to see us spend it on another dose of house price inflation. How utterly ridiculous.
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
it_is_going_with_a_bang said "LTV and Income ratios are not related to interest rates and right now that is what is supressing the market - amongst other things of course.
Like having a job for start - or even just the confidence in having one."
Yeah confidence in future income has a big effect on this market it would seem (makes sense too).
- oh, and the fact that prices are falling; people generally tend to buy (or not sell) when prices are rising and sell (or not buy) when prices are falling.
7. last_days_of_disco said...
Looking at the previous graph it seems the ideal time to get back into the market and buy is 2013 and then sell no later than 2023, if you want to speculate on housing.
8. str 2007 said...
Will, Eternal Sceptic
It makes your post alot more informative if you give a clue as to which area you're reporting on.
From my point of view I've seen quite a few properties sell in the last 2 weeks in South Hampshire.
9. bob1 said...
Prices haven't fallen at all in the area surrounding my home (Betchworth, Surrey). Houses sell almost as soon as they are put on the market. It amazes me but there it is
10. Eternal Sceptic said...
str 2007
I think the vastly reduced numbers of properties being sold probably puts a skew on the statisics. Also when the figures are quoted, like for like comparisons do not exist. Most if not all the authorities being quoted have a vested interest and massage data to the n'th degree.
In addition looking at movements over short term periods, probably masks long term movements.
If, as seems likely, the worlwide economy is into a tailspinn for probably a decade, I cannot for the life of me see anything but a continuous downward spiral in house prices. I would hope my pessimistic outlook is proved wrong, but so far I only see thunder and lightning on the horizon, not sunshine.
11. will said...
STR @8
I currently rent in Exeter having sold 3 years ago. I have owned for 25 years so have equity, most asking prices above £500K have hardly dropped, in fact at the top end £million plus they seem to be rising. Only three years ago there was a local news report saying that the first property at a £million had sold in Devon, but look now, there many at 2 or 3 million. The agents ramped prices towards the peak, I assume so that vendors would achieve a good price even after discounting. How can this help affordibility?
12. Nomad said...
bob1. You're ramping aren't you!
13. ana lytics said...
Interesting......... no mention of the 3 or 5 year number from Fionoodler this month..... can't think why eh?
3 years (Seasonally Adjusted): -6.86%
4 years (SA): -3.48%
5 years (SA): +6.07%
(The longer term Non-Seasonally adjusted numbers are pretty much in-line with those above.)
My continuiing obsession with seeing the 5yr number go negative lives on...........
HPI % change needed (per month) for 5 yr number to be negative by end of:
March 09: -4.40% (ain't gonna happen)
April 09: -1.33% (very likely in my opinion)
May 09: -0.33% (bang on certainty by 31/05)
June 09: -0.04% (i.e. market only has to fall -0.04% x 4 months = -0.16% to be negative at 30/06).
July 09: +0.33% (i.e. average house price could go UP slighty and 5 yr is negative).
Another interesting point this month on the Nationwide survey is the figure quoted for Feb 09 is -1.8%. This is seasonally adjusted (as usual), but the non-seasonally adjusted figure is also -1.8% (they are both -1.83% rounded to -1.8%). Normally in February the Seasonally Adsjuted figure is always lower than the NSA figure. This is the first time since 1991, that the SA figure has not been lower than the corresponding NSA figure.
14. bob1 said...
Unemployemt in Surrey is running at about 2.4%. Average income is the highest in the country and interest rates are at 1%. This is not a recipe for a HPC.
15. mark wadsworth said...
What LastDaysOfDisco says - we're a couple of years off the bottom, the Tories will then blow a house price bubble that will collapse 18 years or so after the last one. Fred Harrison will soon be drafting his next book explaining why and how this insanity has to stop.
Let's just flip back to Nationwide's July 2004 press release:
March 2004 - average price £142,584
April 2004 - £145,918
May 2004 - £149,020
So not long to go before we're five-year-on-five-year negative! Fionalulu's time machine is going to need serious recharging.
16. pelethar said...
Bob1 - that was advanced 18 months ago as reasons why prices would not drop at all, and yet they have dropped sharply. The fundamental issue is the availability of credit. The economic collapse is only exacerbating it.
17. mark wadsworth said...
Ana beat me to it.
18. bob1 said...
pelethar:
I just want to make one thing clear...I am not a house price bull.
Like you say, there is most certainly a shortage of credit, but what little there is, is going to buyers with high earnings and equity. This is why prices are not dropping my area. A large proportion of buyers in my areas are also cash buyers, which further takes credit out of the equation. What we are seeing in this HPC is a widening of the North/South divide and a widening of the rich/poor divide. Ain’t it always the way?
19. ana lytics said...
anecdotal from north cornwall........
houses are moving here, but generally quite slowly because asking prices are not budging (denial). i know of a house which sold in 10 days, but was priced reasonably and a cash buyer came in for it. asking prices were tumbling last year, but have stalled now (since Oct/Nov i'd say)....... am watching a few places myself, but would only consider them with a 20% discount on asking price......... at least.
20. James said...
Chaps... since the sensible people seem to be on this thread, could I ask a personal question?
I'll take that for yes.
I've been offered the opportunity to go and work in SA on the Gautrain project - great job. That's irrelevant. What is relevant is that it'll keep me away from the market until Autumn 2010. Question - will I miss a great house buying opportunity? Appreciate your views...
21. bob1 said...
The house price boom was statistically exaggerated and so is the HPC. This is why we have these strangely conflicting stories of house price falls.
During the boom years there was a craze for extending and improving houses. The value of these houses were often compared before and after extension/improvement. So a house that was bought in 2003 might have had a bathroom and bedroom added and been significantly modernised. When this house was subsequently sold in 2007, it appeared to double in value but actually was not remotely the same house. The home building craze also perverted the statistics because new houses are generally worth more than old ones. All new houses, by definition are sold, but obviously not all of the UK housing stock is sold at the same time so the figures are further distorted because they contained a disproportionate number of new houses.
A large portion of the houses being sold today are of poor quality and generally unloved. These houses are therefore worth less than the average house, which gives the impression of larger house price falls than is strictly true. Obviously the complete absence of new home building has reversed the effect that new homes had in the boom years, further exaggerating the HPC.
22. 51ck-6-51x said...
Ana lytics said "Normally in February the Seasonally Adsjuted figure is always lower than the NSA figure. This is the first time since 1991, that the SA figure has not been lower than the corresponding NSA figure."
I see where you are coming from, but this may actually make sense - the seasonal adjustment is usually made because of the normal extra demand at the time, but this is not there this year, so it should not be adjusted down. That is it is a seasonal adjustment, not a cyclical adjustment. Mind you, I think we should just work with the NSA numbers anyway.
23. mark wadsworth said...
If we're going to do anecdotal, round my way (East London/West Essex) asking prices are only down 10% - 15% from peak, but absolutely nothing is selling, there are plenty of houses that have been up for sale for at least a year.
The local property rags have flipped from 90% sales/10% lettings a year ago to 90% lettings/10% sales (by volume of adverts).
Besides, it's the timing that matters, I'm going to wait at least another year, preferably two if I can placate Her Indoors.
24. ana lytics said...
51ck-6-51x @ 10.51am
agreed....... low volumes = reduced need for smoothing, and NSA are better over the shorter term (and approx the same over longer term) so why not use NSA?
bob1 @ 10.36am
if the model is flawed on the way up, and flawed on the way down, at least there is consistency over time....... but no measure of HPI is completely accurate, you just work with the best data set available, and for me that is Haliwide.........
25. 51ck-6-51x said...
ana lytics -
Looking at the necessary change over the coming months to push the five year change negative (well to zero) I see these numbers:
Feb-09 : 147746
Feb-04 : 138730
so a current 5 year change of +6.499% (or 1.27% PA)
I also see:
Month : Value : Value / Now : Necessary Average Monthly % Change =100 * ((Value / Now) ^ (1 / Months) - 1)
Mar-04 : 142,584 : 0.96506166 : -3.49
Apr-04 : 145,918 : 0.987627415 : -0.62
May-04 : 149,020 : 1.008622907 : 0.28
Jun-04 : 151,524 : 1.025570912 : 0.63
Jul-04 : 154,299 : 1.044353147 : 0.87
So prices could rise a little every month to May's release to still have a 0% 5Yo5Y change (which makes sense since May-04's value is greater than Feb-09's.)
Anyhow, I think we'll be there in April too.
26. bob1 said...
ana lytics
The best data set is provided by Acadametrics. They do a lot of risk modeling and forecasting for residential and commercial portfolios. Have a look at their FTHPI national and regional formatted data from 1995. It disproves most of the nonsense reported by haliwide
27. bob1 said...
ana lytics
here's a chart showing the annual mean of squared errors for published indices. It shows how bad the hometrack, halifax, nationwide data really is
http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/FTHPI%20Comparison%20of%20Indices%20January%2009.xls
28. Rayvonyo said...
If you have a 10% deposit then now is the time to get on the ladder I think. Maybe be wait until the summer to get rock bottom but then you face bidding wars.
29. 51ck-6-51x said...
Acadametrics probably lags by about 3 months, as they use land registry data. Different transactions take a different amount of time to get onto the land registry database too, but it is unbiased transactional data which is a good thing.
30. Stevie Dee said...
I was living in Surrey in the last Crash.. And prices rightly fell like a stone in Surrey. My guess is affluent people pulling out of other areas retreating quite rural affluent areas like Surrey. I actually find some of your points both enlightening asnd possibly very valid. So, I would agree not a Crash vis-a-vis 1989-90, this will be a slower version like a Tsunami (HPT). It will engulf or effect lower or middle class areas but may eventually take or effect some of the more affluent areas too. It really depends on the Economic conditions in the next 6-18months, and according to the BoE the conditions will worsen but they do expect an upturn. If this doesn't occur or the upturn is delayed or long in its return expect a "reverse ripple" effect or Tsunami to engulfing affluent areas, thus reducing prices in line with other regions or socio-economic areas. That's my hunch.
31. Poacher said...
bob1 @10.36
I have to say that I disagree totally with both your assertions.
Firstly, houseprice statistics don't reflect increases in the value of individual properties (anecdotes told in the pub do, but you did say 'statistically exaggerated', so I'm sticking with statistics) they reflect the value of the national stock of housing, skewed towards the most liquid end of the market. During the boom years, the most liquid end of the market covered new-build, rennovated and existing first-time buyer stock. All the indexes are either unit-type blind (they just report the mean price for their data set), or to some degree or other, try to take account of variations in dwelling type, location or size (by habitable rooms). Over the course of the boom, existing dwellings have been subdivided and new homes have been built to significantly meaner space standards than was previously the case. The result is a skewing of the statistics in the opposite direction to the one you suggest. Floor area and amenity are not accounted for in the statistics, and what has actually happened is there has been a general deterioration in both the quality and quantity (in terms of floorspace) of the average home contributing to the statistics.
Secondly, current successful house sales, as captured by the indices, are quite the opposite of being unloved properties. Halifax and Nationwide, are not generally lending against vulture acquisitions of distressed (repoed and vendor in arrears) properties which tend to go to auction and need auction-friendly lenders to be involved. Only the most lagging indicators (land reg and dclg) will capture these types of property but not yet. In reality, the only new lending by high-street lenders is to financially solid (big deposit or existing home equity) professionals with good medium term employment prospects. The type of housing they are buying are far from being 'poor quality and generally unloved'.
32. 51ck-6-51x said...
^^ "unbiased" - Oh apart from the fudging of land registry data that occurred during the boom due to developers offering cash back schemes and the like.
33. bob1 said...
51ck-6-51x
They published January figures on February 13. This is a an institutional grade company with by far the best record of accuracy in the industry. They have no axe to grind and no interest in spin.
34. bob1 said...
51ck-6-51x
Their paper: house price indices-fact or fiction is vey illuminating
http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/House%20Price%20Indices%20Fact%20or%20Fiction.pdf
35. 51ck-6-51x said...
bob1 - I agree they are providing a much better service than Haliwide (and we need to just ignore wrongmove), but when looking at any compiled data one needs to be aware of the methodology and it's properties with relation to the meaning we hope to garner.
36. str 2007 said...
Thanks analytics, 51ck & mark Wadsworth
for your efforts in the 5 year reversal numbers.
In the areas I follow South Bucks and South Hampshire I'd say (and it gives me no pleasure) that house prices are roughly 25% higher than 2004.
37. titaniccaptain said...
@James 20
"Chaps... since the sensible people seem to be on this thread, could I ask a personal question?"..........
Ho Ho Ho Ho had to spoil your day..........
"What is relevant is that it'll keep me away from the market until Autumn 2010. Question - will I miss a great house buying opportunity?"..........no I would buy straight away with all these bargins around and base rates heading to 0%....youd be a fool not to jump in now....do not delay!!!!!
38. Sold My Soul To The Never Never Never said...
51ck-6-51x @ 32
Repossessions are also not taken into account at the Land Reg as this would also reflect the truth. A house bought here in 2006 for £160000 is now being sold for £100000 (mortgagee in possession). They are the only ones that seem to be shifting. My friend who is trying to sell her property told me that one of the agents she was dealing with had 120 properties on their books - 40 being repossessions.
Area South Yorkshire
39. bob1 said...
51ck-6-51x
"one needs to be aware of the methodology and it's properties"
Of course you do but even more than that you have to pay attention to the accuracy of the data you work with. If it is bol*ocks then any conclusions you make from the data will also be bol*ocks. This is not a "my data is better that your data" contest. The company I suggested has been empirically proven to be the most accurate. I thought that you might be interested in that. I guess not.
40. James said...
Aha! My fiendish trap has worked and you've been outed as a false flag NWO stooge, TC, a wolf in sheep's clothing come among us to spread bullish sentiment when we least expect it. But seriously...
41. matt_the_hat said...
@James20 you won't miss a thing, take my advice be a free agent - chances are you probably won't return when you see what living outside the UK is like and you'll wonder why people who live in the UK talk about house prices so much instead of just lving and enjoying life.
42. ana lytics said...
bob1@various
I will read the acadametrics docs with interest. thanks. I've not done too much research on the various indices for a while, but I did look at this back in early 2007 and came to the conclusion that haliwide were the least flawed of them all back then (did not look at acadametrics though).... am open to all indices (unless based on asking prices or completely out of date by release)
51ck-6-51x@11.20
I concur with your NSA numbers, yep. April is nailed on for me......... March is too soon, May is too easy........ April for sure...
43. bob1 said...
ana lytics: my firm subscibes to them but there is an awful lot of free data available on their website. Obviously ignore their (Jan 2009)heinous ramper suggestion that house prices might bottom this year!
44. Goldman555 said...
I generally look at the health of the stock market as a forward-looking indicator to what is going on. This is especially relevant to the UK as we have such a huge financial services industry.
Mergers and acquisitions market is dead, private equity is dead, hedge funds.... dead, mortgages etc etc completely knackered.
There is still massive amounts of delusion around in the housing market And estate agents are having a laugh with their "I know the postcode is collapsing next door but we got thousands of buyers queued up for property in this postcode are no houses to sell...
45. justwatching said...
James@20.....
Off you go. Don't buy now. Return in a year and a bit and buy for 30ish% less.
Look I've saved you a fortune. Easy.
Matt @ 39. SA is a bit of a sh*thole. They have massive probs.
46. letthemfall said...
Seems a very big range of observed price changes about the place. FWIW here in W Surrey my local friendly EA tells me prices are down about 20% and conditions as bad as she's known in 30 years. Quite a lot of new rentals coming on too. Further price falls to come I would say, and if graphs are anything to go by, LP's above suggest so too.
47. jack c said...
The obsession with getting the housing market and prices rising again is (IMO) really annoying for example Nationwide have just sent the following e-mail to me
HEADLINE - Improving affordability helps new and existing buyers
House prices fell by 1.8% in February
More cuts in base rate expected
Falling rates reduce existing variable rate borrowers' typical payments by a third
New buyers see significant improvement in affordability
Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:
''The price of a typical house fell by a further 1.8% in February, bringing the annual rate of change to -17.6% and the price of a typical house down to £147,746, from £179,358 this time last year. Sharp cuts in interest rates have helped affordability, but have not yet affected housing market confidence sufficiently to boost the levels of new transaction activity or slow the pace of house price falls. Early signs of increased interest in housing, as reported by the pick up in new buyer enquiries, have yet to filter into sales, but do suggest that falling prices and interest rates are raising curiosity now, which could flow through quickly once confidence returns.
48. bob1 said...
letthemfall: This story about West Surrey is interesting (are you talking about places like Woking, Walton-on-Thames etc?). I have noticed prices falling in these towns and yet only a few miles away in the Surrey Hills (Holmbury St Mary, Abinger Hammer, Shere etc, there seem to be no noticeable price falls. I am looking for a house with paddock in the Surrey Hills but so far it has been frustrating. The local agents are extremely bullish.
49. str 2007 said...
OK here's an idea I feel the government could pursue.
This IMO would release money into the economy 2 ways, help with their long term plans and help alot of people who are currently not owning houses.
Release a sensible amount of Green Belt in all areas so we can benefit from 1/4 acre building plots at European prices (£30k) not ours (£250k).
Doing this would encourage alot of people to release savings and have their own houses built.
The current land owners would benefit from the capital income which would still be in excess of agricultural land values.
I think there would need to be a few conditions attached.
These plots are for owner occupiers not speculators/investors
IMO also these 'plots should be scattered about, not just a huge field filled with boxes.
I think every small town/village should have 5-10 plots available at any one time for the next 5-10 years. So there is a choice for the home builder.
This wouldn't be huge but IMO opinion a much needed small boost for everywhere. Keeping local people employed.
50. str 2007 said...
bob1
If you can afford a paddock in Surrey Hills why don't you get a really lovely place in the New Forest and commute a couple of days a week.
Just a thought.
You could probably afford a small plane with the money you saved to help with the commuting. Or a yacht on the Solent when you're bored of horse riding !
51. letthemfall said...
bob1
Well, yes, Guildford and around about. The places you mention, the houses are relatively few, pretty big and house residents with big big incomes. Which is probably why prices aren't moving too much. But maybe they will at some point, although I suspect many will have been bought outright. Nice if you can afford it.
52. James said...
bob1 - I'd posit that places like Woking are almost exclusively dormitory towns, reliant on the financial sector for income, whilst the places not quite so near major rail links have a fair few retirees with no need to sell.
53. bob1 said...
str 2007
@46 blimey, I feel like I've committed a crime!
@47 If the green belt was sold, would that mean I'd have to live next to a poor person?
54. str 2007 said...
bob1
@47 No, no crime, it wasn't inferred. I was simply suggesting you have other choices and good ones. I was just trying to help.
@46 You may never even end up with a plot next to your paddock. If you did though you may even find that the person who has had involvement in building their dream family house turns out to be quite a nice neighbour - even if they are poor by your standards.
55. bob1 said...
str 2007
thanks I had no idea that a poor person could be nice. Are you absolutely sure? I really am joking by the way.
On a serious note, I do not believe in selling off the green belt but I do believe in compulsory purchase of empty homes and confiscation of the huge land banks held by property funds and major developers
56. str 2007 said...
bob1
Either way it would be good for the general and local economies that all villages & towns have available 5-10 building plots at any given time to give some choice to home builders (for own use).
This will help things keep moving and give some realistic perspective to prices of current properties.
57. bob1 said...
str 2007
Agreed.
58. titaniccaptain said...
@James
Oh B@lls I have been found out...........
p.s.
Dont buy a house unless you have 100% Cash for it............and if you have cash hold on for a while before you do.....by the time you come back it should be fine!
59. ana lytics said...
@bob1
Regarding FT Acadametrics HPI........ I just read their "HPI - Fact or Fiction" pdf. I couldn't find a detailed Acadametrics FTHPI methodology, but I picked up what I could from the other docs
I'm sorry, but I'm not convinced this index is any better than any other...... in fact, in some respects I think it might be worse........
From what I can make out, the FTHPI (at most current point in time) is calculated from a composite data set. Let's say we're looking at January 2009 data.......... FTHPI uses Land Registry data up to and including September 2008. Then from October 2008 until January 2009 the FTHPI is a forecast (because the LR data is not a complete transactional record until 4 months after the sale). Hence, to simplify, we're talking about a LR data set coupled with a Forecast. Then, as the transactional data is received by the LR, they replace the forecasted data with offical LR data set info and then calculate their finalised HPI (for 4 months ago = October).
What is the Forecast? Well, again, I had trouble piecing it together, but it sounds like a blended index of the Nationwide, Halifax and CLG indices. Eh? The "Fact or Fiction" document says (page 4) "the analysis did confirm the existence of one leading indicator for monthly (as opposed to annual) inflation, namely the average of the rolling, smoothed averages of the Halifax and Nationwide indices; our attention to this was first drawn to this possibility by work from the Bank of England".
So, they decided to use Nationwide, Halifax and CLG in their forecast, but only an "average of the rolling smoothed averages of Nationwide and Halifax" was the "leading indicator"? Why use CLG at all then? And, it would appear that they think the blended Halifax and Nationwide (indices based on mortgage offer prices) are a pretty good approximation of what transacted prices will be later on down the line (LR data). It would appear then, that the Nationwide and Halifax data must be valid (surely?) if they use it in their forecast (albeit, smoothed and average alongside the CLG data)......
So, their forecast is based on the other indices. Not very scientific.
And then, the LR data - where do I start on this?......... yes, it is "comprehensive transactional data including cash sales and mortgaged properties" (albeit 3-4 months out of date).......... BUT....... it is based on transactions in England and Wales only - Scotland and NI are excluded, hence pushing the average house price over 200K at present........ and it excludes repossessions AND auctions..... hence the claim that it covers "100% of total final registered transactions" is nonsense....
So, in short, the acadmetrics HPI is a hybrid of a geographically restricted index which excludes auctions and repossessions......... and a forecast based on the blended returns in the other HP indices.......... do I hear cries of "crock of sh1t" at the back?....... not from me, but it certainly has its flaws.....
Turning to Haliwide.......... yes they have their flaws too....... yes they have smaller sample sizes, yes they use Hedonic rather than Repeat-Sale-Regression methodologies, yes they may include some transactions which may fall through before completion, yes they apply slightly suspect seasonal adjustment, but you what - they include the whole of the UK, they include auctions and repos (which are probably going to be a significant number in 2009)........ the data is timely, consistent and they are reported widely.......
In short, in my very humble opinion, FT Acadametrics HPI is no better or worse than the Haliwide indices, but one thing is for sure - all 3 are better than Land Reg, CLG, Hometrack and Rightmove.
I'm sticking with the Haliwide data...... (it does actually seem to be fairly consistent with price falls in my neck of the woods too, so maybe it's horses for courses...........)
60. mark wadsworth said...
Bob1, don't say that you've fallen for the Hallowed Greenbelt myth.
About ten to fifteen percent of UK is developed, another fifteen per cent is farmland that is designated Hallowed Greebelt and the other seventy or seventy five per cent is farm land that has not been designated Hallowed Greenbelt.
STR2007, that's a good plan, as a kicker, the local council who sells off the land could stipulate a ten per cent annual land value tax on the homes that are built (instead of council tax), i.e. the value of the house minus rebuild cost (£75,000 for an average semi or terrace). So the level of tax will set itself depending on negotiations between buyer and seller. Even if the 'plot' is only worth £10,000, the house is a damn sight cheaper than anything else going and the council gets an extra £1,000 a year. If people are happy to pay £100,000 (still a lot cheaper than average Nationwide price), their mortgage is £50,000 smaller (so they save £2,000 in interest and repayments) and the total LVT is £2,500 - they're still ahead by £500 (assuming average council tax £1,000).
So this is the ultimate shared ownership - you own the house but pay 'market rent' for the plot. And there'd be no boom in house prices, because nobody would be mad enough to pay £150,000 for one and hand over £7,500 land value tax every year.
What's not to like?
61. bob1 said...
analytics:
And yet when they look back to test how accurate everyones figure actually were, Acadametrics data always comes out on top.What a lot of fuss you people make
62. bob1 said...
mark wadsworth
I am always suspicious of opinions formed by envy. Britain in its' natural state is beautiful. Whenever I entertain foreigners, they are always amazed by the monumental achievment of having so much verdant beauty, despite having a 60 million population. You are of course entitled to your opinion but you have no chance of achieving it, because more than 70% of the poulation approve of the green belt policy.
63. ana lytics said...
Bob1 @ 61......
"And yet when they look back to test how accurate everyones figure actually were, Acadametrics data always comes out on top."
When WHO looks back to test how accurate everyones figures actually were? FT Acadametrics per chance?
Don't be taken in by that marketing document called "Fact or Fiction". Those charts comparing the mean of squared averages is comparing all of the indices against the finalised FTHPI index.......... unsuprisingly the FTHPI Month 1 index (their preliminary index) has the closest correlation because it is calculated by the same people!!!!!! Wake up bob!!!