Tuesday, Jan 27, 2009

Jim Rogers v's Gordon Brown. Round 2. Wonder who will be proved right?

FT: Tell me about the UK’s next big growth industry

Sir, While reading my favourite newspaper over the weekend, I was interested to see I was mentioned a couple of times.
My quote that the UK “has nothing to sell” is exactly what I said (View of the Day, January 22), but it must be seen in context. It was in a paragraph wherein I was discussing the drying up of North Sea oil and the collapse of the financial system. The next sentence, “The UK has nothing to sell”, in that context meant: The UK has nothing to sell to make up for those two holes. I then went on to say that therefore the currency would suffer, so I think it was clear to everyone what I meant.

Posted by flintster1994 @ 09:58 AM (3877 views) Add Comment

13 Comments

1. paul said...

I've been having some thoughts about this and I can actually see a very clear growth area which the UK could lead on.

Compliance. Risk Management. Data governance.

These are all areas which the UK government could lead the world in, and export the expertise. All it would need is for the regulatory environment to be tightened up a little (as the government have been threatening to do, and which is certainly necessary).

The problem is that first the government would have to separate its interests in the long term economic environment and its interests in pandering to greedy fat bankers:



No prizes for guessing which one is priority right now ....

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 10:46AM Report Comment
 

2. drewster said...

Roger Bootle covered this story in the Telegraph. Unlike anyone else he actually did the math.

Imagine there's an asteroid hurtling towards the earth. Some people think it will miss the planet entirely, some people think it will land in water or in a deserted area. However some people panic and think it will hit a major urban area, or if it hits water it will cause a devastating tsunami.

Roger Bootle has done the math and seems to think Jim Roger's asteroid isn't all that big: 2-4% of the economy max.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 11:09AM Report Comment
 

3. paul said...

"Roger Bootle has done the math and seems to think Jim Roger's asteroid isn't all that big: 2-4% of the economy max"

Do you have a link to his workings?

P.S. Maths, not "math" please drewster - you're not an Uhmerican.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 11:23AM Report Comment
 

4. letthemfall said...

paul: "P.S. Maths, not "math" please drewster - you're not an Uhmerican."

Goddamn right, paul. Let's have no vulgar Americanisms here. Roger rogers English as well as Britain.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 11:28AM Report Comment
 

5. drewster said...

Paul - here's the link:

Telegraph: Exaggerated claim that we're going down the plughole must be rejected
Nor is oil overwhelmingly important as a source of government revenue. For this year the latest official estimates put the total tax-take from oil at about £13bn, equivalent to 2.4pc of the Government's overall current receipts.
The main part of Rogers' thrust was financial services. Yet the role of this sector in the UK economy is widely exaggerated. It accounts for about 8pc of GDP. This is large, but isn't overwhelming. It compares, for instance, with 12.5pc for manufacturing.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 12:11PM Report Comment
 

6. bellwether said...

I'm no fan of Rogers and he does lack rigour but Bootle is also wrong on this.

15 - 20% of GDP growth since 2001 was consumer speanding based on nearly £300bn "equity withdrawl", not only has that done but now people actually have tighten to pay the debt. This is where the deficit really exists.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 12:20PM Report Comment
 

7. bellwether said...

sorry "done" meant to be "gone"

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 12:20PM Report Comment
 

8. troy said...

There is an 'ownership' of resources issue here though as there is in the third world

who's oil and gas is it?

There was a delay in completing UK plc's accounts a couple of years ago due to the lack of a decision as to how £28b worth of revenue from mobile phone companies was to be registered. The 'resource' being electromagnetic fields in the sky over our heads. Was it the property of UK plc to sell or rent?

How long before they claim the sunshine? They already have the land and the water.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 12:24PM Report Comment
 

9. mountain goat said...

It would be wrong to write off the UK but we need a new earnings model. Making a profitable living by taking on more debt has been a UK business model for a while, whether it be banks or BTL dinner party dabblers. This is now over, and good riddance.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 12:25PM Report Comment
 

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11. shipbuilder said...

Troy, have a read at 'The Silver Bullet' by Fred Harrison - deals with those exact issues and points out that the UN/IMF/etc. solutions are deliberately missing the point with their advice to struggling nations.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 12:33PM Report Comment
 

12. plato said...

Jim Rogers has,to be fair,made some good comments over the years. Probably got in here a little deeper than he imagined,hence the emphasis on 'context'.
Got to be a certain amount of VI here,he is so enthusiastic about the East. The fact is,we've messed up here as in the States on a pretty huge scale. The criticism of him is that he is adding fuel to the fire. Although a powerful investor he is taking on a bit more than he is used to this time. He would need a very high standard of English to maintain his corner, which we know is right in essence,but wrong in delivery.So he'll probably end up banished to the Far East anyway,which is why he sees his future there.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 12:34PM Report Comment
 

13. 51ck-6-51x said...

One must remember that Rogers' prediction has a horizon of a decade - he may be proven wrong by us filling the voids of which he speaks.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009 03:11PM Report Comment
 

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