Friday, Jan 09, 2009
Interesting!!
Findaproperty: The Housing Market In 2009: What The Experts Predict
5%-20% further falls predicted.
Posted by bystander @ 03:30 PM (1296 views) Add Comment
20 Comments
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1. shipbuilder said...
Except that they mostly got it wrong for last year and most years before that and so by definition cannot be 'experts'. More 'mouthpieces'.
2. Old_traveller said...
Yes, and by VI no less... Panic phase incoming!!!
3. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
NAEA - ' could see a bounce as pronounced as the fall'
Yes along with estate agent piffle like
a rare opportunity to acquire... ( rare that you might even consider it )
a unique opportunity to purchase... ( its the only one I might sell this week )
a highly individual residence... ( decoration and colour scheme terrible )
conveniently positioned ( so close to everything that the noise is awful )
in a quiet lane ( of the M25 )
fully enclosed garden ( Nowhere to go )
secluded position ( nobody else would live around here )
4. Rm96696 said...
I notice that builders are still talking about a "housing shortage" and the government's housing targets. How is immigration doing now that there are now jobs in the u.k.? As a side note, with regard to "housing shortages" one should separate the rental market from the home ownership market. Rentals were flat even in the bubble days. There was a "shortage" in the ownership market because there were millions of amateur speculators who dreamed of becoming property tycoons and chased after the housing stock for sale, in many cases buying more than one house (e.g. the buy to letters).
5. rm96696 said...
It is interesting to see that some of the house builders are still talking about a "housing shortage" and the government's building targets. How is immigration doing now that there are no jobs in the u.k.? As a side note, with regard to the "housing shortage" it is important to separate the rental market from the ownership market. Rentals were flat even in the bubble days. There was a "shortage" of purchase property because there were millions of amateur speculators who dreamed of becoming property tycoons and chased wildly after the available housing stock, in some cases buying more than one house (e.g. the buy to letters). During the 1920's equity boom people claimed that there was a shortage of equities...
6. wiltshire said...
Shipbuilder, I was going to say exactly the same thing. The least they could do is put the word experts in inverted commas!
NAEA - ' could see a bounce as pronounced as the fall'. They're right, but first of all they need to wait for the fall to be as pronounced as the bubble.
7. letthemfall said...
These inexperts always say the same thing, and it's always rubbish
8. titaniccaptain said...
Did rics not say that they were going to fall by 5% last year?..............and it turn out to be 20%.............ok so using rics we can estimate that any house price falls this year will be 4 times what ever they say going on their last prediction....so thats a 40% drop in prices this year based on their 10% forecast........hee hee hee hee
9. str 2007 said...
They're fools to themselves, if they stopped talking the market up it would find it's bottom quicker and trade would slowly commence again feeding them the commission they need and slowly lifting our house based economy with it.
It's one thing saying prices will fall by 10% but then add the market will pick up in the 2nd half of the year. Who's going to want to knock 10% off asking price with the thought they might sell in 6 months anyway.
Fact is the housing market needs at least 20-30% off from here to get anywhere near sensible and that I expect is where it will go - the sooner the better.
10. wally said...
wiltshire @4 - 'first of all they need to wait for the fall to be as pronounced as the bubble'
Spot on - and once it has crashed we will be back to normality, hopefully for a while at least.
11. Hard Cheese said...
Well..................
I think you are all wrong, I have always agreed with the majority on this website, but I think things are going to turn for the better this year, I am renting at the moment, and certainly, this has worked for me recently, but I can now buy the same property I rent for roughly the same sort of monthly out goings, i.e. rent v paying a mortgage.
For this reason, I think house prices will bottom out very soon, possibly bounce along the bottom for a while. but not get much cheaper, if at all.
12. notaneconomicsguru said...
11 - Hard cheese. It may be that mortgage repayments may be the same or even less than the rent, but will you and enough others like you actually be able to get a mortgage to provide the floor under prices?
13. Yoman228 said...
11 - Hard cheese, you are assuming that the intrest rate will stay very low forever. if it increase by 0.5%. your mortage will increase by 1/4.
You should always compare your rent to a 5 -10 years fix intrest only mortgage. Is your rent still more expensive?
On top of that, you assuming the employment rate will not increased. tell you what, last month 0.5 mill of people is out of work, wounder how many of them is force seller. we are still at the beging of the house crash as the unemployment is not factor in as yet. give it another 6 months. then watch the speed pick up until the 5 years fix is cheaper then rent.
14. Waitingtobuy said...
hard cheese,hope you are not assuming the IR will stay at the present historical low level for the duration of your mortgage,if you are then you will make the same mistake as the people that are now being repoed!
15. magnifico said...
Hard Cheese it sound as you may be suffering from the same condition that afflicted the person who bought my house 2 months ago. The lady had had enough of renting and bought just out of sheer desire to own her own place.
I've been in rented accomodation for one month now and I can sympatise with the above feelings, but I'll stick to my guns now and see the bottom of the market before I jump in again.
You say that you could pay as much in mortgage as you're now paying in rent. Would this still apply when/if the rates go up again in a year or so?
I'm in a situation in which I'm paying out in rent double of what I would pay in mortgage, but I'm gonna take this chance to improve the type of home which I'll eventually settle for.
Oh and one last good piece of news: rents are tumbling!
16. nubbers said...
Hard Cheese, be careful. If most of the bears on this sight are right and you rush in now, you will loose years of your life needlessly to paying off more than need to. If they are wrong, the buying opportunity will still probably last for a a long time and there will be plenty of time to pick and choose.
17. charlie brooker said...
For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert.
18. crunchy said...
11. Hard Cheese said...Well..................
I think you are all wrong, I have always agreed with the majority on this website, but I think things are going to turn for the better this year, I am renting at the moment, and certainly, this has worked for me recently, but I can now buy the same property I rent for roughly the same sort of monthly out goings,
crunchy If that's what you feel, I wish you luck!
19. nopensionnohouse said...
Lol, Hard Cheese. That's the spirit mate.
Do pop in and let us know how its going from time to time. Google "Greenbay" if you have 10 minutes!
20. Eternal Sceptic said...
The way the world is going at the moment property possesion is a positive liability. A sensible person would remain footloose and fancy free to be able to find food and work. The entire system is broken and unravelling fast. My prediction for the latter part of 2009 is massive food shortages and society falling apart.