Thursday, Jan 15, 2009
Get out of equities
Telegraph: Will china lead the world into depression
I think few here at least would disagree that the market rally since Nov has been as a precursor to a further crash, it's just a matter of when. According to Albert Edwards at Societe Generale the next down wave is about to happen and if you are in be prepared to bail.
Posted by bellwether @ 02:58 PM (1038 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. crunchy said...
...2. paul said..."This probably won't happen in Britain"
Don't bet on it. If I understand correctly, a Bill is winding through Parliament right now to ensure that the Bank of England can print money and pass it around to whoever it wishes in utter secrecy, without any published tally of how much is being spent.
That, is a breathtaking abuse of power and the Freedom of Information Act.
Thursday, January 15, 2009 09:21AM Report Comment
3. crunchy said...2. paul said...That, is a breathtaking abuse of power and the Freedom of Information Act
crunchy said .... No it is not. It is the same thing American banks are doing, It is power. Power is abuse now.
You with all that useless knowledge do not even realise America and UK are one and this cancer is spreading.
Centralisation, Globalisation, NWO does not exsist in your mind as a bad thing, That is the hurdle you and others here need to get over.
aka Malct.
Thursday, January 15, 2009 02:31PM
Excuse the spam, but I am trying to get your eyes back on the ball. You keep drifting into side issues. Where is the 7trillion usa bailout?
aka Malct
Thursday, January 15, 2009 03:17PM
2. bellwether said...
NURSE!
3. plato said...
"Will China lead the world into depression?"
That's a very good point bellwether and probably far more accurate than,China will lead the world out of it. After all they are consumers of huge amounts of raw materials and commodites. They may well turn to internal supply and demand extracting their own resources to continue growth to some degree, closing the doors to the outside world with the view of national stability. A lot is at stake here.
They may however invest in faltering Western business and create or maintain a market for their trade with their own wealth.
btw. crunchy possibly has a worrying point and should not be dismissed lightly. Method may be a bit heavy but then: You can't teach an old dog............
4. mrmickey said...
This printing money thing is a bit worrying, the temptation for Brown to start acting like Mugabe and just handing out cash to favoured businesses & cronies must be phenominal at least in the past there had been some restraints in place. He can now just buy everybody off.
5. Tonys9168 said...
We are absolutely feked, China has been MFRing at a loss for the last 30 years in a bid to get back at the west for our tyranny of Hong Kong. They now have all the manufacturing companies worth speaking off and if they close the doors to us it will take us 20 years to catch up again, or we will have to buy Chinese designed goods (not the nice EU designed stuff).
The UK has been fostering finance as our main economic activity (oops).
On the other hand maybe it will be so bad that we'll realise that growth is the problem and we don't actually need a TV, cigarette, children or whatever. Get your farmers hats on (instead of your tine hat)..
6. Crunchy said...
3. plato btw. crunchy possibly has a worrying point and should not be dismissed lightly.
There is hope for you plato. Re-You can't teach an old dog............
Hence, my heavy blunt handling of the lead here.
aka Malct
7. stillthinking said...
I think things will get worse personally, whether it is called a second wave, or just getting worse. Interesting view on China.
I sometimes think it is a shame that our comments are invariably led by posted news articles. The one failure of this site, which I have read very often, is that although everybody could see the house price crash coming, nobody mentioned the collapse in sterling which now seems so obvious. Perhaps there was just no appropriate news article.
This article suggests that the low level of the average Chinese worker, and their ability to return to the countryside, or subsistence living basically, as I am guessing this isn't the same as "River Cottage" will shield China from the downturn. I think that China went too far with artifically growing their economy through exports. Now I am sure they will do everything to stimulate domestic demand. I think that competitive devaluation is really very likely, although I don't think that will work.
Also China is kind of a world in itself. There are more people in China than in the UK, Europe, Japan and the US put together. We are all outskirt countries for China.
Great post bellweather. China's actions are going to change the whole game. Particularly in terms of their control of borrowing. I have a really strong feeling that China needs to be looked at more. Where, for example, is future UK inflation coming from? We will not be in deflation forever. Also, there is a possibility that things will get nasty.
To a certain extent, the UK, Europe, US and Japan are known quantities. Not really of course but you might take my meaning. Only China might do something unexpected.
Something will happen about the extent of Chinese borrowing. I wonder what.
8. stillthinking said...
I meant Chinese ownership of foreign debt, not "Chinese borrowing". Last line.
9. inbreda said...
stillthinking - without researching for evidence I am fairly certain that you are wrong that no-one saw the sterling collapse coming. I got an oanda.com currency trading account and made a fair bit by shorting sterling. There is no way I am bright enough to think of doing that myself. My prompt must, I am sure, have come from this site.
10. gardeniadotnet said...
7. inbreda said.... My prompt must, I am sure, have come from this site.
Ahem...
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gardeniadotnet said...
Sterling collapse coming, end of 2008 going forward. LofL
Sunday, June 21, 2003 2:47AM
11. stillthinking said...
Fair enough. I stand corrected.
12. inbreda said...
you been posting since 2003 gardenidiot? Me too so I guess it could have been that comment that made me make a few squid. I owe you a pint. I can't beleive I have been blogging on here for 5 years plus. It's all been a long time coming!
13. gardeniadotnet said...
Yet another apology is due. Sorry - post 10 is a work of fiction.
Any posts I make after 10pm* are to be ignored. On this occasion Theakston's Old Peculiar is partly to blame.
*Posts made prior to this will, of course, continue to be 'right on the money' as they say.
14. greytornado said...
The China thing is alarming - huge population - no work = social disorder on a huge scale. The alarming aspect is that the Communist party will want to hold on to power come what may. The question faced by the party is how to hold onto power? Are they crazy enough to view a war as a solution? They have to my knowledge never abandoned their intentions of world domination.
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