Monday, Jan 19, 2009
E&Y Item Club Winter 2009 Release
Earnst & Young: Economic outlook for business
Total domestic demand to fall 3.8% this year, 0.8% next year.
Output likely to fall by 2.7% this year - worst since 1946.
Headline RPI inflation will turn sharply negative.
Darling bank plan needs quick reform [happening already].
Base rates must be reduced further.
Business investment to fall 17%.
Sees house prices falling through to the end of 2010, 1/3 down from peak.
Forecasts another 22% reduction in housing transactions in 2009.
Possible opportunities for businesses due to sterling's falls.
Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 10:21 AM (1299 views) Add Comment
29 Comments
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1. 51ck-6-51x said...
Also their executive summary
2. titaniccaptain said...
Where is the thread posted by S2R1?
3. str 2007 said...
Taken from 51ck's link
Optimistic by our standards I know, but estate agents need to wake up sellers to the following fact if they want any hope of finding the bottom and starting to sell houses again and earn money.
I can't help thinking most vendors are convinced they live in a special area that's immune from house price falls :-
''Housing market remains in dire straits
The forecast predicts that house prices have further to fall and forecasts a 16% fall in house prices over 2009 and a further 6% in 2010, with a peak-to-trough decline of over 33%.''
This from Earnst Young.
4. 51ck-6-51x said...
"This from Earnst Young." - exactly, this is uber-gloomy for them.
5. mrmickey said...
My next door neighbour has been trying to sell for ages, they just won't drop the price and accept they're in negative equity, people are still trying to convince themselves that the housing market will pick up again and all will be well. At some point they will have to either drop the price or remove the property from the market and accept they will not be able to move for a long time.
6. mountain goat said...
TC @2 it's horrible the way articles are pulled. Is it because readers of this site complain to the webmaster?
7. jamonit said...
TC, suspect S2R1 has become persona-non-grata unfortunately.
8. Crunchy said...
3. str 2007
For a winner there has to be a loser. That's how it works.
It works that much better if the loser is an all time loser and a big one at that.
9. Crunchy said...
7. jamonit
LOL. Ve hav devious vays of tvying to make you shut up. click. LOL.
10. titaniccaptain said...
@Jamonit
S2R1 has been banned?
11. Crunchy said...
I'm personally, holding on by my fingernails. Comments now vetted.
I would like my SAY. It will strike a chord later, when things really heat up!
12. titaniccaptain said...
Getting back to my point on gold does anyone here think that gold will be dumped soon because the industrial uses will be reduced due to a decrease in industrial production? anyone?
13. str 2007 said...
Given the price of Gold was a 1/3 roughly 6-10 yeas ago, I suspect value above that level was to do with speculation.
Although some may argue that to make it worthwhile mining Gold the price needs to be at around $700/oz.
Not alot of help TC sorry. Fact is I don't know for sure.
What's S2R1 done this time ?
14. titaniccaptain said...
@str2007
Im close to buying but I think that with a decline in industry will come a decline in the use and value of raw materials of which gold is one.........however I do feel that once the price has dropped due to heavey selling of gold that it will then be time to buy gold because loads will think it a bargin and buy buy buy they will.........any thoughts on that guys....just my ponderings
"What's S2R1 done this time ?"...........ok I think the article (A you tube video of a paster) was off topic but we are running over the same old ground here daily and its getting quiet on this site so we need the occasional off topic posting these days to liven it up a bit
15. Rex said...
"Building" magazine seems to have mis-quoted the report (deliberately or not?).
http://www.building.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=284&storycode=3131776&c=0
It says "The housing market remains in dire straits, starved of mortgage finance,” said Professor Peter Spencer, Item’s economic adviser. “Although bargain hunters are active, there seems little reason to buy until house prices stop falling. We do not see this happening until the end of 2009." The Professor actually said 2010.
16. letthemfall said...
A shame if s2r1 has followed p4c and malct (reincarnated as crunchy?) into the badly-off-topic-pit. As titanic suggests, the hpc topic is inevitably becoming threadbare, so it is interesting to cover general financial stuff. Sometimes we even get some intelligent discussion.
17. Crunchy said...
12. letthemfall
The housing crash is the tip of the iceburg.
I don't mind your conspiracy with regards to names.
I know the game now. LOL
It's funny to me now!
Has it ever crossed your mind that an alternative view is spreading like wild fire. rhtoricle of course.
18. mrmickey said...
I think somebody made a good point that previous recessions have wiped out working class jobs such as steel, coal etc but this recession will wipe out middle class jobs. As it's the middle class that keeps the housing market fueled is this the end of the housing market as we know it. I heard that the accountants KPMG have gone to a four day week, this used to happen in industry in the 1970's.
19. David said...
I have been wondering about buying gold as well, but it's price is already so high.....
20. 51ck-6-51x said...
IMO the HPC and the credit crisis are one and the same, hence articles about the credit crisis, it's foundations, it's current state of play, and it's solutions are all valid.
21. letthemfall said...
51ck
I agree. In fact the broader aspects of the credit crisis are more interesting and pertinent to the subject than the latest hp figures or the blatherings of the EAs.
22. stillthinking said...
Comments should not be pulled at all. But surely anybody blocked can just reappear under a different name? Why malct would be blocked I have no idea, or p4c, although I can kind of see the reasoning for s2r1.
Housepricecrash as a forum for house prices crashing is a dead idea. Obviously they are, as 51ck-6-51x(nice name, easy...) and letthemfall says. This needs to become an economics forum. Who is going to continue posting articles about falling house prices?
23. titaniccaptain said...
@stillthinking
there is something I would love to say right now but im saving it for 5 weeks :-)
24. inbreda said...
You're pregnant?
25. titaniccaptain said...
More exciting than that Inbreda!!!!!!!!!!!!
Give me up to 5 weeks and it will be revealed
26. titaniccaptain said...
Inbreda check your email from the Meets site mate
27. 51ck-6-51x said...
Saving it for ...Valentines day?
28. titaniccaptain said...
51ck 6 51x
Lets just say a nice surprise is to be revellled............one which solves alot of problems faced recently....will go public with it soon enough
29. titaniccaptain said...
ooooopppppps nice spelling TC