Wednesday, Dec 03, 2008
Stockmarkets bounce in 2009
FT Alphaville: S&P 500 to rise 55% in 2009, says UBS
The Panic of 2008 created a confidence vacuum that policy is rushing to fill [bailouts, handouts, stimulus packages, tax breaks, payment holidays]. Filling the void is a challenge, but we take comfort in that now every policy maker in the world is trying to jump-start confidence in the system. Once this happens, powerful positive underlying economic forces such as the worldwide proliferation of technology and globalization should make confidence shine again. An opportunity to buy the big-cap global growth stocks of the S&P 500.
Posted by mountain goat @ 04:47 PM (896 views) Add Comment
24 Comments
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1. gardeniadotnet said...
"courtesy of David Bianco, a strategist at UBS"
UBS? The same UBS that is in dire straits as we speak?
I won't be taking any advice from him.
Thanks anyway.
2. Pete said...
A new Ford will increase your sex life 73% (source: a Ford spokesman)
These kind of statistics are meaningless, 87% off people know that..
3. financial planner said...
On this occasion, I'll agree. :)
4. planning4acrash said...
Oh great, its happy days again! If stocks do rise, the index will be dominated by a couple of state sponsored zombies. Stocks may rise is numbers, but, When oil producers & China stop buying US, UK & EU treasuries, that number of £,$,, will be worthless.
5. icarus said...
Technology?? At any given time current technology is the most advanced there has ever been, so why hasn't it pulled us out of slumps in the past? And if current technology and globalisation were both around last year, why didn't they avert this slump? 'Once govts jump-start confidence??? Another stupid argument - 'a few more bailouts will do the trick'. Then we get the 'bad news is good news argument' - prices have fallen so far that buyers will soon come back and send prices up again. Rubbage.
6. Boom_and_bust said...
Wohoo...!! We are saved !
7. techieman said...
4000 Ftse should now hold. That means - assuming we have a breakout of the 4320 - then my reading is we have more strength into the new year.... how far does that strength go? Well high 4000s to low 5000s looks good to me (although perhaps not in a straight line). Then a re-evaluation In any case I am long with a MBG @ 4000. In other words yes boom boom boom for a while, but just a bear market countertrend rally in my book.
8. hpwatcher said...
the fool sounds like a second rate estate agent trying to talk up the market before losing his job.
9. hpwatcher said...
4000 Ftse should now hold. That means - assuming we have a breakout of the 4320 - then my reading is we have more strength into the new year.... how far does that strength go? Well high 4000s to low 5000s looks good to me (although perhaps not in a straight line). Then a re-evaluation In any case I am long with a MBG @ 4000. In other words yes boom boom boom for a while, but just a bear market countertrend rally in my book.
Far too optimistic in my view. GB/BOE pathetic promises will run out soon, then you will be looking at 3,500 - where it should be.
10. V Stor said...
The markets were supported by securitization, there is nothing to replace securitization to sustain economic growth
11. drewster said...
Financial Planner - Are you agreeing with UBS or with Gardeniadotnet?
12. alan said...
I thought the Chinese had stolen all our "top talent". It seems they missed one at UBS
13. techieman said...
hpw - where it "should be"???? its now where it should be or else it wouldnt be there!
i have quite a large position long at around 4000 (which had nothing to do with todays announcement) . as i look now IG are quoting it at 4200 - so really 800 points isnt that much in these volatile times. I suppose market reaction to the rate decison tomorrow sets the tone.
As i have said though once the bull strength disappates, we are then off to the downside.
Eventually we will have capitulation and the market will go much much lower, (yes i think lower than 3.5k) but we need a countertrend rally first. Historically the year end rally has been quite powerful. I wouldnt bet against it particular when previous oversold levels have been pretty stretched.
14. gardeniadotnet said...
8. drewster said... Financial Planner - Are you agreeing with UBS or with Gardeniadotnet?
Isn't it obvious?
15. rumble said...
@ drewster - I think he was agreeing with UBS - he was saying 'buy' a few weeks back, presumably the same sentiment.
16. techieman said...
rumble - but he was wrong then and probably rightish now :-)
17. rumble said...
Two wrongs don't make a rightish?
18. techieman said...
rumble :-).
to be fair i think he was just one swing low wrong last time, so it wasnt a terrible call. i think hes bullish now but i doubt he thinks the bull will move that much - but hey he plays with us a little i think its ambiguous by design
19. gardeniadotnet said...
You guys crack me up.
20. drewster said...
Rumble, techie,
I don't know how anybody can be confident about their predictions in this climate. As a non-expert, my advice to anyone would be to get out of the market and stay out until the world regains a sense of normality. But perhaps I'm the shoe-shine boy.
21. techieman said...
blimey Drewster that was a bit late! - Yes i think you are right, i wouldnt advise anyone to buy and hold but my indicators told me to get in @ 4000 (i did put a post up) and i bought some below and some on stop above 4000. I have a stop in at my entry and will oco that with a sale of some around 4.5k, some around 4.75k and 5.00k - i will then prob run the rest (about 5-10%). Well thats the plan!
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