Tuesday, Dec 09, 2008
Ramping rubbish from estate agents...
Times Online: House hunting hits two-year high
''The number of people seeking to buy a home surged to a two-year high last month as bargain-seekers searched for repossessed and forced-sale properties at bargain-basement prices, new figures suggest''
Posted by hpwatcher @ 04:11 AM (1455 views) Add Comment
24 Comments
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1. techieman said...
"Estate agency branches sold an average of 10.6 houses each in England and Wales in the three months to November 30 - less than one house a week. That figure was down from 10.9 houses in the three months to October 31, a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed. That is the lowest figure recorded since RICS began its survey in 1978." - right but does this include the fact that many branches have shut?
"In a symptom of the worsening outlook for house prices, which have already fallen by 18 per cent since the market peaked in summer last year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said yesterday that it would not produce its annual forecast for house prices." - amusing.... and since i am mister contrarian looks to me like the hallmarks of a temp short term bottom soon.
2. growler said...
Absolutely. The article headline is completely at odds with the text. Considering the amount of closed down businesses, the figures indicate a worseneing if anything?
3. beartil2010 said...
Interesting. I'm over in Oz now - they haven't realised everything's about to hit them - agents are still openly saying property prices are going to go up, it's perfectly safe to invest.
Wrong!!!
Properties aren't moving here, and even a huge boost in the first time buyer's grant hasn't moved the market. Prices about to plummet.
4. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
"would not produce it's annual forecast for growth"
Funny how in 10 years of unsustainable growth they could not manage the same sense of responsibility.
However, by making such statements and then that being made public, they have probably just achieved the same affect anyway.
All the estate agents I pass by are are empty so I have no idea where this "2 year high" is being measured.
5. Will said...
VI spin. We are all now looking for bargains.
6. jack c said...
If we take the headline at face value and accept that house hunting has hit a 2 year high it will (IMO) have little immediate impact on the market because the means of financing a purchase has changed dramatically - the idea that lending will return to 2006/2007 levels and the UK property market will re-ignite is (IMO) fantasy.
7. drewster said...
I'm one of those new bargain-seeking house hunters. Every few days I look at the prices in my local area, think for a minute, then decide to wait a couple more years!
8. george monsoon said...
the VI returns with avengance...
Anyone taking notice of this drivel, deserves to be stung with negative equity.
9. bertywooster said...
Double, treble, quadruple counting me thinks........
10. jonb said...
It is an increase in enquiries, not an increase in actual sales.
Nevertheless, it suggests that it is not yet the time to start thinking about buying, as we could be getting a dead cat bounce soon.
11. stillthinking said...
Brown has made calling the bottom a bit harder, from what I have seen repossession tail off shortly before the bottom, and when repossessions peak the crash is half-way through. So watching the repossession quantities is useful, particularly if repossession values are excluded from the land registry reports ruining them a bit. If there is a moratorium on repossessions then this plan fails.
Interesting that the media always consider the cycle of price movements to be so inviolate. It is early days. We might get the Japanese property experience, as in they bottom out and then stay at the bottom price for decades afterwards, but always always in the press is the presumption that prices will start to rise again at some point.
12. jackas said...
We are going to see a great deal of these "green shoots" stories over the next few years. In any type of crash, they last all the way through the "despair" phase, and cause a lot of pain.
13. mark wadsworth said...
I'm with Drewster. I'd give it at least two years before thinking about buying - prices have still got a long way to go (here are Nationwide's houseprices since 1952 adjusted for earnings growth)
14. quiet guy said...
The article has been thoroughly dissected and it's all been said already but I want to second growler's comment. The headline is ludicrously out of step with the text.
15. titaniccaptain said...
Well im house hunting!!!!!!! and have been for a long time.............only problem is im making offers for what house prices will be in a year and a half and the vendors are having none of it,,,,,,,,,,in other words im offering 40 grand for a 4 bed up for sale at 260 grand..............it must be done .......it is my duty!!!!!
16. 51ck-6-51x said...
I'm guessing the figure of which they speak in this article are the same as those in the Yahoo Article posted by mark @ 11:10 AM
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/09122008/140/big-rise-number-buying-homes.html
which states:
"But interest in property picked up, with the number of househunters rising for the first time in two years after big cuts in interest rates."
So the times interpreted this as a high in the absolute number for some reason!
Hardly shocking that more people are looking in estate agents windows with all the falling prices now is it?
Add the media hype to the mix and I'm surprised the headline isn't "4 in 5 are house hunters".
17. titaniccaptain said...
Here here 51ck.....well said sir
18. str 2007 said...
TC
Do they actually let you through the door in any estate agents round your way ?
19. titaniccaptain said...
@str2007
Oh they look forward to my arival............I always bring a glass of wine or some chocolates.........then after the pleasantries are over down to proding them with a stick
20. matt_the_hat said...
15. titaniccaptain - do they actually pass the offers on. I once made an offer and was told by the EA that it was refused - unfortunately the agent handed me the vendors contact details - after contacting them directly I discovered the offer had not been forwarded.
21. titaniccaptain said...
@Matt the hat
There is still a belief with some estate agaents that prices will go back up to 2007 levels in a year............ladies and gentlemen we are looking at the capitulation of the housing market...........
22. str 2007 said...
Just an update for you guys on HSBC mortgage.
It is 1.64% above basewith no floor so if Base Rate goes to 0% it will go down to 1.64%.
There is the small matterof a 40% deposit, but they seem to be lending at 4x joint.
If we all think Base Rates will go to zero then the above on Interest Only (which is available) would cost £136 per month per £100k borrowed.
23. mountain goat said...
When to buy - when banks have recovered -
"Banks typically start to outperform a year before the trough in property prices, which we believe is roughly two years away." - Credit Suisse - Nov 2008
24. David Smith's Sub Prime. . . said...
Matt,
It is illegal for them not to pass the offer on.