Tuesday, Dec 23, 2008
Oil to surge in late 2009 onwards
Market Oracle: Crude Oil Price Deflation Most Oversold Since the Great Depression
Most financial commentators, even the well-known and respected ones, just don't get it. They don't understand what's happening in macro-conditions because they fail to accept the understanding that sentiment, as measured by speculator betting practices in the various options markets populating the landscape, is the single most important driver of prices in our mature fiat currency based financial markets
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 12:22 PM (682 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
3. Joeb said...
What a load of garbage
4. crunchy said...
Financial experts lol.
Good bye deflation.
As I keep saying Hyperinflation/Depression is ahead. Deflation? A mere rest bite. IMHO.
5. theboltonfury said...
Crunchy. What do mean 'As you keep saying?'
You've only been here about a week! Tell you what though, you write in an uncannily samey way to Mr Malcom T
6. Crunchy said...
Check my posts. It should be easy as a have not been around long.
Sterling to bounce soon on Euro news. IMHO watch!
7. crunchy said...
3. theboltonfury
I should be easy to check then if you are so keen.
I am long oil short dollar and ditched gold @ 820 a while ago and have no desire to get back in, personally.
8. theboltonfury said...
I am long oil, short dollar and ditched gold @ 820 a while ago and have no desire to get back in
I am 6ft, 14st 7lb and ditched a wife @ 27 a while ago and have no desire to get back in.
If you say you're not Malc then I believe you, and welcome to our site. Happy posting
9. crunchy said...
At last!
Thank you theboltonfury.
10. nopensionnohouse said...
Everyone loves a newcomer who swaggers in all cocky giving it lots of LOL.
Is there such a thing as forum etiquette particularly when so new?
11. crunchy said...
7. nopensionnohouse
NO lol.
Don't worry, you will soon bore of me and along will come another, far more interesting.
Out with the old and in with the new.
A bit like this blogs format.
12. nopensionnohouse said...
Yeah, because I’m finding you really interesting so far.
/sarcasm.
13. kruador said...
Complete carp. The thing that was fuelling the crude oil market was the same thing as fuelling HPI - too much credit. It'll keep dropping until there's no more to deleverage - probably about $10 - then recover over a few years to about $30 (where it was in the 90s) as the market starts to be dominated by actual physical hedging again. That assumes no actual shocks or spikes or troughs in consumption.
In future governments/central bankers *must* consider commodity prices, stock markets and house prices as part of inflation (which they are) rather than the narrow CPI, RPIX and RPI measures. Only newly created shares are 'growth' - reselling an existing share is inflation. If you measured inflation as 'increase in value of items sold' we had enormous inflation between 1999 and 2007, completely out of control, and far from the supposed low-inflation-moderate-growth we were told about. There was lots of inflation, just not in the items being measured.
I still think commodity markets need to be restructured to ensure that they are used to perform the price setting function and cut out vast numbers of speculators. Requirements to actually exchange for physical, remove the 'rollover' capability of the contract (right now traders can say 'I'll have that later please' and it becomes a contract for a future delivery month), and ensuring that the number of contracts sold actually match real production, would go a long way to fixing these problems.
Taxing each trade would be a good idea, too - we need to damp unproductive price speculation in all trading markets.