Monday, Dec 15, 2008
No, David Smith. No.
Times: Are there signs of a thaw in the housing market?
Economists have been poring over the latest survey from RICS, which showed the first increase in new buyer inquiries since October 2006. Normally, as Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Rics, points out, such a rise is a prelude to a strengthening in housing demand. The report "gave some hope that house-purchase activity has finally troughed and that the most intense phase of the downward price spiral is behind us."
Karen Ward of HSBC described the findings as “tentative green shoots”.
Some people (not me) thought that when prices were rising, they could only carry on doing so. Now some think they can only ever fall. It does not work like that.
Posted by little professor @ 11:39 AM (934 views) Add Comment
10 Comments
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1. paul said...
Smith knack of getting things wrong is uncanny.
He published an article over the weekend claiming that scope for further interest rate cuts would be limited by the plunging pound. The same day, the government announced it can't be bothered worrying about the value of the pound.
Today he publishes an article claiming the housing market could pick up again anytime soon and Barclays John Varley says we have at least another 15% fall in prices, and that we are only half way through the rout.
What a prize numpty.
2. alan said...
Paul
"What a prize numpty".
I don't think his articles are accidentally wrong or that Smith is stupid. It's a determined attempt to influence people. In this case to start looking towards buying houses. I guess this might support property advertisers buying space in the papers....
3. amjidk said...
anyone who believes this guy is a REAL numpty
4. crunchy said...
1. paul
Smith is leading indicator. Just do the exact opposite.
With a failier rate like his, you just can't go too far wrong.
Mind you, he must get something right. Murphy's Law. lol
5. mountain goat said...
It is very unlikely that housing will only go straight down to its trough in 2011-2012 without a bounce here and there. A bounce sooner or later must happen, probably in 2009.
6. tyrellcorporation said...
Goat I disagree.
Housing purchases are a long winded process and the housing market generates a lot of momentum in it's direction of either up or down. Stock markets can turn on a sixpence but housing in like an oil tanker. The prevailing sentiment is a falling market and with bad news stories coming thick and fast throughout 2009 I just can't see spikes of 'happy house buying' appearing any time soon. IMO, market bottoms out in 2010 with about 50% peak to trough.
7. doomwatch said...
I'm sorry lads. This is entirely my fault. A couple of weeks ago I called a few Poxtons offices and mentioned I'd not seen any of their delightful minis breaking the law on the local roads recently and how I missed them. Before I knew it they'd got my details and were spamming me with still over-priced shoe boxes every day.
8. Markie6 said...
judging by the depth and length of the last 2 HPC's ( house price crashes ) it is very foolish to attempt to guess where the bottom of the market is, especially as it has only been about a year since it started. The last time things were this bad, it took a number of years of declining prices
People suggesting that there will be any good news before 2010 are ignoring the fundimentals
After the 78-79 crash ....prices took 7 years ish to regain their losses
The '89 crash took even longer
Why will this correction be any different
9. jackas said...
How the feck do people like David bloody Smith get into positions of expertise/authority?
The guy is an absolute drone, spouting selected old school economics, He NEVER admitted that the property bubble even existed, let alone could burst.
What exactly gives him the right to put his views in print?
10. new user 2007 said...
Goat:
I agree. No market moves in just one direction. Like in past slumps there are falls and rises. The difference this time has been that there have been an abnormally large number of falls in a row.
Tyrell:
Falls with rises is an observation from the last slump. It was the ups and downs (rising 0.1% but then falling 0.2%, for example) that made it take 5 years to reach a trough rather than fall to a trough quickly.
I am happy, yet surprised by the consistency of the fall thus far.