Monday, Dec 29, 2008
Hometrack predicts 12% drop in '09
The Telegraph: House prices to fall by 12 per cent next year, says Hometrack
Another dire prediction...
Posted by joe magoo @ 08:05 AM (481 views) Add Comment
4 Comments
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1. paul said...
12% now looks very conservative.
2. paul said...
It would be a dire prediction were it not the case that they've grossly underestimated the fall by around 100%. I take it that Hometrack records only asking prices. Actual sale prices are down 17-18% over the year.
So then we're actually looking at another ... 25%? Sounds about right.
3. will said...
and another 10% in 2010.
4. peter_2008 said...
This is bizzard. Hometrack reckons this year the house price was only down by 8%. So if it predicts a further 12% drop, it actually means a massive 50% ACCELERATION of the crash. So how can thay acclaim it is "bottomming out"?
If we apply this scale to the Halifax figure, which is 15% down, then a 50% acceleration means a whopping 22.5% crash. I have this feeling that both Halifax and Nationalwide actually have worked out these figures, but they are too scared to publish it.