Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008
EWI ask the question
EWI: Will the U.K. Housing Market Bottom In 2009?
Bearish momentum divergence and classic 5 waves up with a 3 wave down move to come. Have we had the A yet? For the folks that dont know the textbook form of the downmove is a 3 waves. An "A" wave against the prior trend, a "B" wave retracing that primary downward move (the sucker move) and then the "C" which results in new lows.
Posted by techieman @ 10:29 AM (1024 views) Add Comment
20 Comments
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1. will said...
No.
2. wdbeast said...
Not a chance!
3. paul said...
Still this weird notion that 2006 was normal, and that it's only a matter fo time before we return to that normal.
4. Neo-serf said...
Dreaming aren't you?
5. mark wadsworth said...
No.
6. gone-to-colombia said...
Will the Pope get married?
Will G W Bush understand his own stupidity?
Will Iran hold a We love Israel day?
All above more likely!
7. str 2007 said...
One question
How do Elliott Waves take account of outside influences ie bail-outs etc ?
But agree 2009 more likely to see full price fall momentum reached rather than a bottom.
8. digdug said...
YES!! Er.. I mean No!
9. Joe Le Taxi said...
My technical analysis lecturer on my MSc course started the course by declaring (not quite those words though): "we all know it's complete nonsense and can't predict anything. Somebody's got to teach you it, and I've been unfortunate to be the chosen one!"
Technical analysis is great, you can read anything you want into those graphs... Call the bottom in 2009 if you want or in 2050 if you prefer. Just depends on what methods you'll chose today and tomorrow...
Look at fundamentals. They'll tell you a whole lot more!!!
10. techieman said...
str 2007 - good question!
"Q: Won't government bailouts stop deflation cold and turn it into inflation?" there is a question posted in the home page of that site to get the answer you have to join the free club.
11. crunchy said...
I think from a technical charting point of view were are in for a seven year wait a least before houses start to increase in price.
It really depends on when banks and wages reach a harmonious level and what happens to interest rates.
I Ithink it is very unlikely that while rates remain low that any bottom will be acheive. Even short term bounces.
It would be suicidal for banks to lend enough in this climate.
If we have inflation and rate rises say in 3/5 years the climate would be more favourable I feel. Im expecting a two year flat period at best around the bottom.
A good indicator also for house prices is to watch what the builders are doing. If the rate go up strongly possitive. Look at what the builders were doing before the crash. Stock prices and builing rate.
A good leading indicator.
As with all things It's ears to the ground. Looking for a 60% drop overall. IMHO
12. crunchy said...
I think for another housing boom to occure of the likes we have seen, we will need a different monetary and buying system.
What that may be, I have no idea.
I would go for price stability but that might be too sensible.
13. crunchy said...
My conclusion if we hear of an introduction of other money system for around 2015/17 hold on to your hats.
14. drewster said...
On a technical level, look at Fred Harrison's predictions for the best analysis of the housing market. He claims land goes in 18 year cycles: 7 up, a blip, 7 more up, then 4 down. We had the blip in 2000-1 when the panic of the dot-com burst threatened the wider economy. The end of the boom was 2007-8, so it'll be 2011-12 before things pick up again. That's assuming he's right of course...
15. str 2007 said...
Drewster
Would we have had that blip if it weren't for the outside influence of Tech stocks ?
Techieman
Thanks for the info - couldn't progress on that actuall quetion without signing up properly.
16. amjidk said...
Bottom, My A*se!
17. techieman said...
str the club is free but fair point,
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