Sunday, Dec 28, 2008
City traders bet on 46% drop in prices
independent Newspaper: Few signs of light in gloomy house market
Who can you trust in the next year on predictions for house prices? Certainly not those who have vested interest in them going up, stabilising or going down for that matte!. However, when people 'put their money where there mouth is', you should take notice. The Independent newspaper reports that the median average for city traders betting on housing derivatives is a 46% drop peak to trough. Whilst this may seem a staggering amount, this only takes us back to 2002 levels quarter 1/2 (as per the Nationwide price calculator). I remember having talks in 2002 when people thought the market was starting to bubble then, so this may not at all be an unrealistic scenario, given that we wouldn't have factored in the worst recession since the war and a credit crunch at the same time.
2 Comments
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1. Dan said...
All the local houses near to me are still priced at £240k!!!
They were priced at £75k in 2000.
I will not be buying until they return to 2000 levels. If they dont. I wont buy. Its that simple. Knock 50% off £240k Its still MASSIVELY overpriced.
But at least theres the satisfying knowledge that most of the nasty greedy stupid [I chose those three words carefully] Estate Agents near to me will go under without a trace.
Its the FTB's who set the market value. All these newspapers and economists are really trying to do, is to figure out when we , the FTB will start buying houses.
And if none of us do.
Prices will keep coming down.
So. £240k minus 70% brings the house back down to 2000 levels.
70% reduction, or forget it.
I'll just keep renting :0)
[One thing this mess should do, is lead to changes, specifically more accountability from our politicians, and councillors. Including. National disgrace and Jail time. These B**tards get away with anything they want.]
The stocks are too lenient for our present day politicians.
2. Hiccup said...
Please god that this happens. Mr and Mrs thickie need a sharp shock and I need a very cheap house. Alternative is to sieze all bankers accounts and take the money back they pinched.