Monday, Dec 29, 2008
Chaos of 2008 causes havoc for predictions - Um, it didn't for HPC'ers but it stumped you eh, David
Times: Chaos of 2008 causes havoc for predictions
'Instead, things turned out gloomier than even the pessimists expected.' - Um, no they didn't we spotted the coming tsunami with unnerving accuracy!
'Forecasters always find it difficult to predict turning points in economic activity but there were other reasons why 2008 was an unusually hard year to pin down.' Mmm, not really if you have a brain!
'So any economist getting it right during 2008 would have required mystical powers of prediction. Small wonder, as I look at my annual forecasting league table, most got it wrong.' Again, we didn't David and I would guess none of us at HPC are professional economists.
David Smith really is an embarrasment.
Posted by tyrellcorporation @ 10:40 AM (525 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. paul said...
I think we've already done this one yesterday tyrell. The comments under the article just about sum up what we reckon.
2. Saywhat said...
So now here a challenge, the bust was well predicted by the folks here. What is the prediction then for when the recovery to start ?
3. tyrellcorporation said...
mmm didnt get the duplicate article message. Sorry guys.
4. phdinbubbles said...
@Saywhat
"What is the prediction then for when the recovery to start ?"
The recovery started in 2007 when houses started getting more affordable. I'd give it 5-10 years from now to fully recover and the seeds of another gloomy bubble to be sown.
5. Pat said...
"Um, no they didn't we spotted the coming tsunami with unnerving accuracy!"
Well some credit for at least recognising that there was a bubble, but unnerving accuracy? If you predict something for long enough (I started following HPC in 2003), you're almost bound to be proven right eventually. Those who, like me, believed the predictions of HPC for imminent downturn missed out on a lot of growth. Without accurate timing, predictions are pretty worthless. I hereby predict that housing prices will rise - sometime. So what?
6. gone-to-colombia said...
When will houses start to rise in value? 2012-2013