Thursday, Dec 18, 2008
But retail sales rose in November
Bloomberg: U.K. Pound Sinks to Record 94 Pence per Euro Before Retail Data
"The pound fell to 94 pence per euro for the first time on speculation a report forecast to show a drop in retail sales",........and yet the retail figures rose 0.3% and the pound still drops and the IFO in Germany drops to the lowest level since the 1980's. Speculation, as with commodities earlier in the year, is controlling the pace of the sterling fall rather than the widely touted 'fundamentals'. Banks, traders and HMG (IMHO) etc. are building positions and forcing sterling lower, Happy Christmas Forex. Most economists say that the downside is already 'priced-in', what does this mean when sterling continues to drop? To those of you out there who defend these violent moves down please explain this so that I can begin to understand the thinking in the Forex game.
11 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. bystander said...
“The Bean comments have certainly helped put sterling on the back foot again,” said Lee Ferridge, a currency strategist at State Street in London. "
....taken from the article in the Times (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5363784.ece). It would appear that the MPC is determined to talk down sterling so that answers some of my earlier rant.
2. mountain goat said...
GBP was attractive because our IR were the highest of the G7. Now they are going to zero.
@Bystander - Why would anyone want to hold GBP now?
3. drewster said...
"Economists say the downside is already priced in".
But economists don't have a great track record - if they did they would be traders. They're like tipsters at a race-course. Besides, even if it's all "priced in" it could easily overshoot. Nobody knows which way it will move next.
4. plato said...
GB sold gold for euros and Darling might have a cunning plan to buy sterling with those euros and make killing......or is sterling really not worth touching? In which case it's finished. I've no Idea!
5. a saver said...
The Swissie was at 61p this morning, gaining 3p in a couple of hours yesterday evening.
The $NZ also made some pretty rapid gains over the same timeframe (about 1p).
BTW note to anyone else holding $NZ, the NZ govt announced a deposit protection scheme a few weeks ago.
6. techieman said...
bystander , i said yesterday that i expected to start hedging @ 9300. WRONG! I saids thats a level unless we have a blow off. If you look at a chart you will see that the daily ranges we are getting now were unheard of a few months ago. You are right this to me looks like a bublle in the Euro. How much further can we go?? Well although i will be hedging here 30% plus another 20% if we get to 10000 [ which looks optimistic / pessimistic depending on your POV] I WONT be going against this upmove until we see some sort of disappation, a fall , and then a pullback or we have what looks like a top (which this dont). Depending on the structure and volumes on the pullback that may give us a big trade for the ol minipound. As for cable, that looks a safer trade to me (short lookming for lows below 1.45). Also an important point for the Euro is in terms of the Greenback. 1.50 is important (@1.46 now).
Its inconcievable that the BOE (perhaps with others) doesnt want this to happen - its just a case of where will it draw the line. I think it will intervene when it thinks the markets can be sppoked - thats not now.
7. Kruador said...
Look, it's price speculation. Don't expect a reason for it. What was the reason for $147 oil when traffic volume was clearly dropping? What was the reason for £200k former council terraces? There wasn't one.
8. bystander said...
Thanks for the feedback techieman.
9. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
10. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
11. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.