Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008
Beccy desperately wants the price falls to stop so calls the bottom of the market
Times Online: Dry rot at Savills
"These buyers are quietly calling the bottom of the market, even if the official figures — and Savills' profit forecasts — do not give any indication that it is anywhere within sight." - in other words ... the bottom of the market is, well, nowhere in sight then? "... the industry is pinning its hopes for recovery on cash-rich buyers. " Good luck with that one, love.
Posted by paul @ 06:08 PM (774 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. gone-to-colombia said...
With net lending expected to fall to zero there clown think that the bottom will a 40% drop in prices. That has to be very optimistic.
I can hardly imagine what the real prices of houses will be once buyers have to put up all their own money, but way, way less than a mere 40% reduction.
2. gone-to-colombia said...
these clowns
3. drewster said...
America is 6-9 months ahead of us. America is still falling. Britain will continue to fall for at least 6-9 months. QED.
4. gone-to-colombia said...
Does this mean that we will see Savills placed upon the home page of HPC as predicting a 40% fall in house prices?
5. bystander said...
Drewster does that mean that Europe will follow the UK as it is widely belived that it is between 6-9 months behind the UK?
6. paul said...
I reckon so too drewster - we're pretty well following the groove the US marked in the previous year so far.
7. bystander said...
It would be great if vendors were actually accepting 40% below asking prices, but so far I have not seen a many signs of realism in the ranks of vendors in SW london. They honestly still believe their one bedroom flat is worth 250K, even in today's market. Reasure me guys, will these people ever see the light?
8. drewster said...
bystander,
Europe can't be considered as one lump. Country-by-country,
- Spain appears to be further gone than the UK.
- Ireland appears to be on the same track as the UK, with prices down 15%. Timescales are hard to compare because of the long lead times in property.
- Germany didn't have a house price boom so no crisis there
- Latvia and Hungary are yet to crash properly
9. drewster said...
Oops, hadn't finished writing. Latvia and Estonia are already falling fast, Ukraine is falling, Hungary not sure.
Every country has unique factors. Property is crashing fast in "new" countries like Estonia or China; partly because they have highly flexible economies which respond quickly to ups and downs globally. Germany, perhaps the epitome of an "old" country, hasn't budged. France had only a mild boom, so it's only likely to see a mild fall.
It's hard to tell what all this means for the Euro. On average though, the Eurozone countries don't have as much debt as the UK; nor do their economies rely on banking and finance so much. The Pound's weakness will continue for several years yet. (Assuming no black swans, like the Euro collapsing).
10. drewster said...
bystander -
Yes they will see the light soon enough! Look at the article at the top of the list now (Telegraph: Sterling's slide may turn foreign bankers off 'la vie anglaise').
11. str 2007 said...
Given a fall already of 15% (8%in London), I think a 40% discount combined with current interest rates would actually add up ok.
If you could get a tenant ! Oh dear.
But for someones own residence that would be 45-50% discount which would be back to 2001 prices. If you can't afford that (assuming you have a deposit) with current interest rates..........
Put it this way, if could get 40% discount off a family house I wanted, I would currently grab it with both hands. Probably.
12. Eternal Sceptic said...
If the market bottoms out at 40% we can all breathe a collective sigh of relief. However on studying my tea leaves this morning and trashing my teabag into the bargain, I looked at the state of the tides and the phases of the moon and decided the state of the teabag was probably closer to the truth. I suspect the average house price will end up at 110k after recovery from the over run, and I place that conservatively at 8 years down the road, barring no dramatic hiccups.
13. Gordon Brown said...
There is nothing to worry about I have the situation under control. House prices will level out next year followed by a growth in the economy by the end of 2009. An international crisis required and international solution.
Gordon Brown
Prime minister
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