Tuesday, Dec 30, 2008
A$$
Telegraph: The Housing Market Will Come Back To Life Next Year
Assetz Predictz
Posted by bellwether @ 05:46 PM (1159 views) Add Comment
17 Comments
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1. little professor said...
I knew Assetz would have to come up with something to reclaim the comedy king title from RICS, after the story below this one. That was quick
2. little professor said...
5% drop in 2009. Yeah, and the rest!
3. hpwatcher said...
Considering that the UK economy is just beginning going to recession, I find that forecast very, very optimistic.
Moreover, many of the lax lending practices - that created the housing bubble in the first place - have now ended.
I bet he is absolutely dying to use the 'spring bounce' metaphor.
More fool the telegraph for reporting the rubbish that this idiot emits.
4. mikedx said...
5. Eternal Sceptic said...
and no doubt the fairy on the Christmas tree will solve the financial problems of the world.
6. Panda said...
I've been reading the Telegraph, and I have noticed that they go through little phases of total bonkers type articles in small clusters. I think the real situation is that they have a comparatively sane editor somewhere who mostly vetoes the barking mad stuff, but periodically has to let a certain percentage of it through. Presumably the dark and sinister forces behind the paper start to get annoyed if there are not a sufficient monthly average of nutty editorials, such as this one about housing.
Oh, yes, they're ranting on about Cuba at the moment. Same comment applies.
Just gently sigh, and wait for the calm to return.
7. bystander said...
To be fair he is talking about an increase in sales not prices, but his predictions have been concistently wrong so I'm not particularly worried. Roger Bootle speaking the 'uncomfortable truth', as always.
8. You_talkin_to_me? said...
RIP Assetz.
9. hpwatcher said...
To be fair he is talking about an increase in sales not prices, but his predictions have been concistently wrong so I'm not particularly worried. Roger Bootle speaking the 'uncomfortable truth', as always.
Sales is what I am talking about.
10. denzil said...
I'd put a few quid on there being an increase in sales in 09. I'd like Assetz to quantify what "modest increase" actually means.
Sales volumes are so low this year (lowest ever, I believe) that an increase in sales volumes is a bit of a no-brainer. I'll stick my neck out and state that sales volumes will be 15-20% higher at the close of 09 than they will be close 08. The increase sales volumes will result in prices only falling between 15-25% nationally during 09, but the VIs will be crowing about a Spring bounce that will fizzle out quicker than it appeared.
Shame Mr Assetz had nothing to say regarding his prediction for this year.
11. crunchy said...
4. mikedx
Which pig is the pound and which one represents property prices.
I am trying to guess which one is going to hit the mud first.
Problem!
12. Othello said...
Here are his words of wisdom from Mar 08. They are really, I mean really, funny. The guy is a total joke.
Stuart Law, Chief Executive of Assetz, comments:
“A very minor decline in the average UK house price in January shows the market is probably levelling off. The average monthly rate of growth across all the indices was a mere -0.2% in January, compared with -0.6% and -0.8% in December and November respectively. This indicates the buoyancy of the UK residential market and is evidence that the downturn seen in recent months is simply part of a stabilisation process and not a market crash as has been touted by some. At Assetz we have stood by our prediction of a 5% level of price growth for the year 2008, and we expect to soon see a return to upward movement in the market before the spring. Prices are already starting to increase in some indices and the latest indicators point to a sustainable level of growth for the foreseeable future.
“The property sector has remained a good investment so far in 2008, proving its mettle even at a time of financial crisis in other sectors and rubbishing claims of an imminent market crash. Residential property is the clear winner of the mainstream investment classes, with the turmoil of the credit crunch causing prices to fall in areas of commercial property as well as the stock market. The supply/demand imbalance is simply not going away, and is even showing signs of worsening in the short to medium term, making prolonged price falls an unrealistic outcome and many will be surprised by a return to house price growth later this year.
“First time buyers still have a golden opportunity to strike while the iron is hot, and make the most of low prices and incentives from some anxious developers and private vendors. However, this buying opportunity will not last forever, and could be over by the time summer arrives as prices start to rise again as developers and vendors increase in confidence.”
13. trough2010 said...
why does anyone pay any interest in **************************zZzzZZZzzzzzzzZZzzzzzzz
well, i'm going to bed soon
14. Alan Lubin said...
ass-etz... huh huh huh.. he said ass... huh huh huh
15. new user 2007 said...
The usual "best-case scenario" analysis, trying to sound credible with some marginal negative comments (surrounded by still positive comments). This guy said from October 2007 onwards (multiple times) that there was no problem and the "clever" money was buying, That clever money has since lost a lot, particularly as rental yields are now falling to "help" the capital losses.
This genius also told people, for example, to buy in Manchester developments in 2005 and then told a new generation of mugs in 2007 to buy in the same city as there were idiots who bought earlier (ones he no doubt advised to buy) who were now being repossessed. And yet we should listen to him. For further laughs feel free to look for an essay he wrote in The Spectator near the end of 2007.
16. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
17. Uncle Fargas said...
Here is their 2008 prediction:
--------
Prediction: House prices will increase by 5% in 2008 and rents will rise by 10%.
Reasons: With an anticipated period of lower interest rates and the credit crunch now receding, we think 5% growth is realistic, given the continuing supply/demand imbalance. Supply constraints and buyers' uncertainty about the housing market also means next year is likely to see an increase in the demand for rental accommodation from first-time buyers and immigrants -- hence the rise in rents. So we predict 2008 will be a very prosperous year for the buy-to-let investor.