Independent: If the recession won't be that bad, why will we go so far into the red?

If the recession is shallow and short, then we might just about scramble through. But if not, then we will be in a huge mess, having to tighten policy while we're still in recession. Most of us are still reeling from those dreadful borrowing figures revealed by the Chancellor in his pre-Budget report last week. If you cannot borrow more and you cannot raise more in tax, you have to cut what you spend. The only issue is how savage this process will turn out to be.