Saturday, Nov 15, 2008
The advanced economies will face stag-deflation (stagnation/recession and deflation) rather than sta
Forbes: Nouriel Roubini, The Worst Is Not Behind Us Doctor Doom
--Obama will inherit an economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollars in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap
4 Comments
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1. japanese uncle said...
Def-recession sounds better.
Anyway house will remain an impossible commodity for the foreseeable future = 15-20 years in the UK. because of the tidal wave of recession and unemployment, apart from the hundreds of thousands of anecdotal tragedies mainly involving BTL speculations which will be passed onto the next generation in a most vivid way thanks to the Internet. Given the expected extraordinary level of job insecurity, how can an average worker fancy buying a house (unless HP comes down to a level equivalent to around two (2) times net annual income indeed, which means 92% HPC in London, 70% elsewhere)
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3. bellwether said...
Compared to some stuff floating around Roubini is begining to sound almost comforting
4. malct said...
bellwether - that's very civil of you
btw if I missed an 'l' out earlier I was misinformed and meant no offence
'bellwether' what an odd choice of ID
sounds like something a sheep would wear around it's ankle similar to a goat would have around it's neck.
nothing personal, it's just I was checking up on weather, wether and whether the other day and the wether version definately had something to do with sheep.
Sorry mate, the RAF taught me how to wind people up many years ago and I'm stuck with the habit
But then you chose the tag so you must have the answer?