Thursday, Nov 27, 2008
No recovery for a few years - and so say all of us
Telegraph: House prices: How low can they go?
A resumee of JD and others predictions on house prices - and how things have a long way to go.
Posted by growler @ 08:42 PM (1395 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. little professor said...
See also:
House prices to fall a further 36%
Financial markets are pricing a further 22pc fall in the housing market over the next 12 months, with another 14pc in 2010.
Figures derived from trades on the HBOS House Price Index show traders are betting on the housing market falling far more over the next two years than the majority of commentators have so far forecast. If the fall is realised it would amount to a halving of house prices from its peak last year. The derivatives market also suggests it will take 10 years for prices to return to their current levels.
2. little professor said...
3. fjcruiser said...
Kirstie Allsopp even called his website "sick".
ah ah ah.
4. growler said...
I know I cracked this one a few months back, but we'll know things are getting better when SubPrime Vocation start issuing reports again. January will confirm the depths of recession when the figures come out. By then a lot of companies will unfortunately have gone insolvent. This is sadly the tragedy of it all - people out on the dole. The price we pay for debt financed kiddology.
5. wdbeast said...
"In April 2007 I said I thought prices would fall by 25 per cent from peak to trough," he says. "By October 2007, I increased that to 35 per cent. Now, I think prices will fall by 40 to 50 per cent, and the market will not reach a bottom until 2011."
If I ws in JD's shoes, I would broadly be giving the same forecast to the media.
My true belief however is about 20% lower than that.
6. japanese uncle said...
'Cult website'! Holy...
7. amjidk said...
spot on, excellent article...
8. plato said...
'Now, Davis admits he has been wrong about the housing market – but only in as much as it is in a worse state than he had thought.'
That makes JU and a few others right then!........... It's called Realism............for those that like to use the 'sick' word.
9. montesquieu said...
Cult website indeed - it's been getting out of hand lately. Worst of it is it's only a couple of zealots giving the impression we are all a few hazelnuts short of a chocky bar.
10. Daniel said...
At the risk of sounding like a broken record.
Houses on my street are priced at £239,500. They were sold for £80k in 2000. For many different, legitimate reasons, I will not be going near them, until they return to £80k.
Whether thats 2010, or 2012, 2015 . I do not know. All i know is that £80k is realistic. [Wonder if there will be any estate agents left by then?]
For the first time in TEN years, Im starting to feel like there may be a light, at the end of the tunnel.
11. handle_it said...
Anyone who's viewed Location,Location,Location will know all about sick. She's even now still trying to ramp the market - "people need a home" - "this could be your last chance with mortgages drying-up" etc etc. I think talk about the "bottom" is kinda lame.. Truth is that the relative amount of gold to fiat currency is misleading. All governments are printing money like there's no tomorrow. America seems more interested in securing oil fields and gaining military positions of strength in the middle east and Europe. The Dollar isn't as important as they would have us believe. So to that end,at least from my perspective,the game is playing out exactly as they have planned..
12. Holycows said...
Few more than a couple of nut cases on this site to say the least - one thing to rejoice in the housing market correcting, but comments like wdbeast's - 50% plus a "true belief" it will go 20% lower just make me giggle in amazement that someone so out of touch can actually use a computer. Thought this site was for intelligent discussion - it's recently turned into a general area for economic doom, political bashing and god knows what else...bring on the straight jackets - lol x
13. Robinglos said...
'cult web site', the web site is 'sick', we 'gloat'. what utter tosh.
We were the realists, we guessed where things were obviously going to end up, and I earn nothing (retyred).
So the 'experts' in government and treasury etc. are surprised by the outcome of liar loans etc. incompetant I'd call them.
I forgot, this all started in the US of A, so nothing to do with us! How long will they try to brainwash us with all the spin, it's embarrising.
R
14. Eastleighfan said...
So , Krusty called our website "sick"
GOOD !!!! We must be really working on her nerves !!!!
HA HA HA !!!
15. charlie brooker said...
" . . . the cult website www.housepricecrash.co.uk, where those who stayed out of the property boom go to gloat . . . "
We don't just gloat here, we also seethe with anger at the selfish, greedy, reckless and criminal behaviour that's caused the once in thousand year financial and economic crisis we knew would follow.
16. theboltonfury said...
I am part of a cult! Crumbs.....
We should get a secret handshake
17. Sold My Soul To The Never Never Never said...
"the cult website...where those who stayed out of the property boom go to gloat..."
I am in the property market but I remember the devastation of the last bust when 2003 started to feel like 1988 (short term hedonism) and I wasn't going there again - so when interest rates were low I started paying off my mortgage (also I was worried that my husband would lose his job - which he eventually did).
It's all about not following the herd and keeping up with the Joneses.
18. titaniccaptain said...
Dont you know the handshake yet Bolton? I will show you it tommorow
19. another alan said...
If Kirstie Allsopp has any integrity - yeah, right - and eats her hat, she may feel sick!