Saturday, Nov 29, 2008
Just a little bit of HPC pron
PropertyWeek.com: House prices could fall a further 36%
House prices are set to fall a further 36% over the next two years in what could amount to the worst post-war housing crash, according to the price of contracts being traded on the derivatives market.
Posted by quiet guy @ 04:07 PM (1588 views) Add Comment
21 Comments
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1. Dantheman said...
Its already a question of WHEN not IF.
2. planning4acrash said...
This is 50% total, Combined with the current 14%, in line with my 2006 predictions, - I see at least 5yrs of falls now with recent events, 90% falls if lending ends, as predicted, only cash purchases at that point. Who,s the bear!
3. titaniccaptain said...
thats what i like to hear p4ac!
4. confused76 said...
this is great!
50% peak to trough!! nominal
that means 75% peak to trough REAL in 2013
what a nice piece of news!!
5. plato said...
Yes, I think this is the second such forecast this week. Should sink in eventually and become reality. Raises the question of who is going to volantarily sell though. I see a completely stagnant market forming.
6. malct said...
quiet guy - I'm intrinsically fascinated by the quality and quantity of the pigment in your varnish
this post is dreadfully on topic and politically correct and causes me to question your motives.
only joking, enjoy your xmas shopping
7. malct said...
Oh deary me
with plato, planning for a disaster and titanic captain - and confused76 - an me on this blog
I have only one thing to say
no perhaps two or three
where's nooneo
save this file before it gets zapped
and TC how did the meetup go?
8. plato said...
btw....... Whats 'pron'? Is it an anagram? Norp!
A very tiny part of my conscience wants to conform.
9. planning4acrash said...
With lending moving to zero within the year, we could see a total collapse of the market this year, either a small volume of high value cash purchases in the elite sector, or, a significant volume of small value cash sales. Or, we could see complete standoff with nothing moving until the working class save some cash up. Yes, we are talking about a return of capitalism, savings being king. Capitalism is based on savings, not fiat lending. In this war between savers and speculators, the speculators have gobbled themselves up and are busy saving the unsalable. We don't have much in the way of savings left, but, at any moment can build up a savings based economy, either by aquiring gold (if govt don't put up interest rates) or by saving fiat, (If government stop repressing interest rates). Either way, the battle lines are drawn on who will come out of this with the most in the way of real assets. Government and corporations are betting on zombies. Will we let them gobble us up or stand proud?
According to the FT, governments and corporations planned to buy back the world via the derivatives bubble, but it got totally out of control and consumed them and their fake rigged economy. I hope that's the case. BTW, can't believe they pulled my Ron Paul bit. Like, its all in main stream media, G.Brown talking about New World Order, and I'm the kook?!
10. malct said...
plato - as an ex designer / printer, i've noticed typos have got exponentially worse tooday and i am asbad as thu rest off them
but there must come a pont where intention, as expresed through digital text will - ? do damage
even mor dammag to the abilllity of huemans to komune icate bi tsexual mess ages
see what I mean?
11. malct said...
p4ac - you've had articles zapped but you still have your password, how do you explain that?
12. Multisitio said...
I believe we are talking ourselves into a complete mess. Houses have clearly been overvalued relative to wages - but consider this: In the papers we see this Sunday, for example, four examples of houses whose prices were dropped by upwards of 100k. But not that many houses are selling "across the board" hence these example have a disproportionate weight. We end up reading that "average prices" had 30 lopped off when in fact a modest property might have lost,say, 7 to 10 k.
As the Sunday Times correctly points out the problem now is largely a lack of credit, rather than prices being too high. If the banks won't lend then prices could fall by two-thirds and prospective buyers still couldn't get a loan. But that fact would not be a function of the value of the property, or even the finances of the buyer - but the obstinacy of the banks.
13. quiet guy said...
"this post is dreadfully on topic and politically correct and causes me to question your motives. only joking, enjoy your xmas shopping"
Thanks for the laugh malct but your posting started me thinking a bit and not all happy thoughts.
"xmas shopping" - I cannot help wondering if you subconsciously or more deliberately class me as one of the sheeple. I hate Christmas shopping. I find looking at a busy shopping centre full of people borrowing for stuff they don't really need a bit disturbing.
"your motives" - Yes, what are my motives for being here? When I found HPC, that was easy to answer. Now that the crash is obvious I have to ask when will I stop. The number of postings house price postings seems to be dwindling because there isn't much new to say any more. I have actually gotten to the point were I expect about 1% per month or so drop (remember how it was a few years ago anybody?)
"dreadfully on topic" - Thanks!
14. quiet guy said...
Off topic.
A follow up to my last comment about shopping:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7755278.stm
What should they write on the gravestone?
15. str 2007 said...
Back on topic
This is a nice piece of news - but - who actually pays out these derivatives and can the figure being predicted be swayed.
And if the people betting against the figure are the ones that pay out if it does drop 36% over the next 2 years, what are they betting ?
Want to believe the article just need to be sure we're interpretting the findings correctly.
16. quiet guy said...
@str 2007
A good comment. I was thinking along similar lines. Essentially, it boils down to how volatile are the derivatves I think.
I'll try to make my point by analogy; a friend of mine told me a while back that the odds bookies give on a horse race are based upon not the odds of a horse winning but the bookies potential risk to the bookie whatever happens.
Similarly, it is fair to ask: do these derivative prices reflect the real risks of a HPC or are they a consequence of hedging against existing HPC bets?
Tricky stuff.
17. titaniccaptain said...
@malct
Had a great time at meet.....Drewster JU and myself and real ale and mulled wine and a nice steak and a great conversation.....wish they lived closer, my local pub would be alot more interesting however I think I would become and alcoholic again lol
18. malct said...
quiet guy - no offence intended - I was having a friendly jibe at your reference to varnish the day before.
It made me wonder what it must be like not to have ever had one's password suspended.
19. down wave said...
13. quiet guy said...
What should they write on the gravestone? They will want the last word. The last word in the Oxford Dictionary is ZYGOTE.
20. mdmick said...
Which came first? zygote or egg?
21. str 2007 said...
Quiet Guy (or anyone else who knows)
The derivatives are a hedge aginst the opposite outcome so to speak.
I can understand this being the case for trades in whatever is traded as there are always 2 sides and different posistions and motivations.
What I don't understand is how you hedge against House Price Falls.
Is it like an insurance policy taken out to cover lenders shortfall if an auction sale fails to meet capital owed ?
Just a brief overview from anyone who knows how it works would be good.