Sunday, Nov 16, 2008
HPC vindicated
BBC: How low will house prices go in 2009?
Halifax spokesman Martin Ellis states "We are comfortable with the view that there will be a 20% fall over 2008 and 2009".
So if prices fall 15% this year, will they drop by just 5% next year?
"We don't want to be too specific about next year," he replies.
Jonathan Davis, spokesman for housepricecrash.co.uk says next year reality will kick in, even more than in 2008.
"Next year prices will fall by 15-20% because unemployment is kicking in, house repossessions will rise rapidly and houses will go through auctions at previously silly prices - and banks aren't lending," he predicts.
After forecasting the end of the house price bubble for several years his worst predictions appear to be coming true.
Posted by little professor @ 06:35 PM (1346 views) Add Comment
18 Comments
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1. Sd said...
I find a housing recovery in 2009 very hard to believe. Everyone I know are either worried about their jobs or already being laid off. Even public sector workers are worried , thinking that eventually cut backs in their departments will have to occur to pay for the financial mess that has been caused and also the pension deficit that this country has.
2. vindicated said...
Suddenly my user name seems highly appropriate...
3. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
4. Dave said...
Can I ask a question of HPC???
When houses finally crash will you be unemployed like everyboby else and have to shut this rubbish sit down?????????????????
There are some good things about a HPC then?!!
Dave
5. little professor said...
malct, if you don't want to comment on this story then go away and browse prisonplanet or some other conspiraloon site. Your comment has been reported.
6. voiceofreason said...
Will it be
[1] Gordy sacrifices sterling to save the housing market by dropping IRs to 1%, causing Iceland-style 15% inflation.
Or
[2] will sanity prevail and IRs be kept around 3%, in which case house prices keep falling. But we savers don't get "tucked up".
How many swing voters would be advantaged by [1] vs [2] ...?
7. mark wadsworth said...
his worst predictions appear to be coming true
Worst? Or 'best' if you're one of the priced out generation?
8. p. doff said...
Give it a rest Malct. You are just making yourself look stupid and it's embarrassing.
9. flintster1994 said...
I always believed that along with age came maturity. There goes thet theory out the window!
10. last_days_of_disco said...
Ray Boulger of the mortgage brokers John Charcol:
"Human psychology and the desire to buy a property is out there," he believes.
Yeah, its out there dude, keep believing. What desperate pathetic stuff!
11. Vin Rouge said...
malct.
What are you going on about?
12. markj69 str05 said...
Getting back to the original thread (Posted by LP) - General respect to JD for his foresignt in HPC. Latest JD prediction 40-50% to 2011. Well I wonder what figures you use JD? If Halifax and Nat'Wide then 20% this yr 20% next year! Maybe your prediction could be exceeded.
13. p. doff said...
I personally believe HPC will accelerate in 2009.
As happened in the last crash, my own area seems to lag behind other parts of the country due to the ripple effect. We have not yet been significantly affected in terms of widespread price reductions, although admittedly sales volumes have tanked. I conclude from this that we are on the brink.
Areas such as this still contribute to the national average, and are possibly moderating the statistics. Past experience shows that we are not imune from HPC and so when areas such as this do play catch-up they will add to the average. This is in addition to the reasons outlined by JD in the article, which will still have an impact in 2009 on areas of the country already falling.
Of course, if Gordon Brown's magic wand works as he intends then another dose of debt could kick the problem further down the road again.
14. quiet guy said...
@Dave
"Can I ask a question of HPC???
When houses finally crash will you be unemployed like everyboby else and have to shut this rubbish site down?"
So you don't like us or agree with us. Fair enough. This rubbish site has saved me from buying property near the top of one of the biggest debt orgies in history. Perhaps soon this site will slide into oblivion when we approach the bottom of the market. Personally speaking, I'm not complaining :)
15. gardeniadotnet said...
11. Vin Rouge said...malct. What are you going on about?
I suspect he is angry at the HPC.co.uk inconsistencies.
Obscenities from nopensionnohouse can stand, while innocuous comments are arbitrarily removed.
I think it is down to who the moderator is at any given time.
16. Ride_on said...
Dave obviously is a VI in deep sh*t, and wishes to blame everyone but himself.
Dave, as soon as you accept the blame for your mistakes the sooner you can get on with getting yourself out of the proverbial, rather than waiting for the market to be 'talked up' again.
17. nopensionnohouse said...
I'm going to apply to be a moderator.
18. Wofmd said...
Hello "Dave said" or is it "David Smith"?
The "rubbish sit" that you are referring to Dave has done something the mainstream media has not - informed people of the economics behind the great housing bubble. For an understanding of how the media works get a copy of Noam Chomsky's "Manufacturing Consent".
It is not the fault of HPC that the government kept central bank interest rates too low for too long. End result was too much easy credit, and most of it wasted on "investing" in property, specifically one bedroom "luxury" apartments that will soon be boarded up or knocked down. And flat screen tv's. ;)
The UK has spent the past 10 years "investing" in property - units that do not produce any long term outputs for the UK econcomy. The problem with an economy built on constantly rising prices is that like all pyramid schemes you run out of idiots.
Warren Buffet, the worlds most successful investor, recently explained the current crisis as a "natural progression" by using the "three I's" - The innovators (see the opportunity), imitators (copy idea) and idiots.
It is obvious which stage we are now in.