Monday, Oct 27, 2008
House prices to flatten in 2010 then rise in 2010/11
Centre for Economics and Business Research: House prices 'to recover by 2013'
Phew, this house price crash will over and we'll see 20% rises in 2010 and 2011. The CEBR must have access to a crystal ball. Marvellous.
Posted by doom&gloom @ 11:19 AM (4995 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. doomwatch said...
So, with 11-12 years of massive rises, followed by a quick 2 year drop into recovery at 3 years from peak,
this has to be the ONLY non-symmetric bubble in history. Does anyone actually believe this ?
2. icarus said...
Having seen a lot of global financial crises of this magnitude, and being experts in predicting how they pan out, these experts can forecast how the UK housing market will play out over the next few years. I don't think so.
3. waitingfor hpc said...
yep and i had my fortune read last week and she said i was due some money from my family!
4. plato said...
Absolute Codswallop ! That would be a turning point if anything, certainly not a recovery to 2007 levels? The lunatics are out again.
Do they really want to see this happen all over again?
5. dave said...
Twaddle. Nobody a year ago predicted this mess, so I doubt how anyone else can come up with such a prediction. Also, Kate B at the BoE used to say "it's not the business of central banks to deflate asset price bubbels......the job of the bank is to clear up after they have burst". I think that we can all agree that this is beyone the BoE, Govt or anyone else. Next time, they will have to regulate lending and perhaps even target the asset price, as well as inflation.
6. Neo-serf said...
Claptrap of the highest order.
7. Will said...
So much for free markets.
8. Fjcruiser said...
cool now it is 2013, last month it was 2010. At the end of 2009 it will be 2016!
9. Old_traveler said...
And what about the 20% rise in... just 2 years 2011-12? what? another price boom looming? puzzled.
10. timmy t said...
What a crock of sh1t. We're more than half way to 25% falls already and we are still only 'on the brink' of recession. Things haven't even started yet.
11. little professor said...
Well, lets flashback to what CEBR were saying last year:
House prices to rise £1,000 per month
12. matt_the_hat said...
You've got to feel for CEBR, if they don't predict they are out of a job. Haven't met someone who can predict the future yet and make money from short term speculation. Anyone can draw a straight line.
13. techieman said...
You need to expand your circle Matt - i know quite a few! Although depends what you time frame you mean by "the future".
Well researched JU.
14. little professor said...
JU hasn't posted on this thread :(
15. uncle tom said...
Unless inflation goes ballistic, utter rubbish.
In real terms, they will never get so high again (at least, not this century)
16. Luckyjim said...
The housing market is now more like the stock market than ever before - values are based on what we think will happen over the next few years rather than what is actually happening in the economy today. Actually, thats is why we had the bubble.
The unique attribute of the 2008 crash is the pace. This is because the supposed long term falls are being factored into prices today. If the house you are buying is certain to lose 30k in it's first year you will demand 30k off now, today. The falls which should be happening over three to four years are actually happening over a period of months. I don't think this happened in the 90s crash.
So prices could bottom out well before the end of the recession. We could see rises as early as 2010 even if the economy is still slowing.
I am very sure that we will reach the bottom next year. Truthly, I have no idea how far they will fall.
17. doom&gloom said...
luckyjim. you describe the speculative part of the equation. But you don't mention the availability of mortgage finanace and employment levels as factors setting house prices achieved. There are plenty of idiots who would buy now if they could/ Prices can only rise in real terms once credit becomes more easily available again and employment levels are high.
Unemployment has yet to gather pace, so prices so far haven't even been affected by forced sales. Once forced sales increase supply, prices will fall further, and those forced sellers will not be able to re-enter the market for many many years (if ever).
18. techieman said...
LP apologies - i get you, UT and JU mixed up as you all make so much good sense! :-).
19. Orwell said...
Could they be making a mistake and mean 2023. I am not joking, but that is when the Cass Business School say they will recover. It could be a typo I think?