Sunday, Oct 19, 2008
Has negative real interest rates made this an option?
Times online: Time to swoop on bargain properties?
In its latest research, agents Knight Frank predict that prices will continue to fall until at least the middle of next year, flattening out only when they are 30% below the peaks reached late last spring – or, put another way, back to levels last seen in September 2003. Indeed, it will not be until 2015 that average prices in the country will return to where they were last year, they believe. Other predictions paint an equally gloomy picture.
Posted by matt_the_hat @ 09:45 AM (338 views) Add Comment
5 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. sold out said...
We have already had falls of nearly 15% from 2007 peak.The fallout from events over the last 6 weeks (including mass unemployment especially in the city) will not feed into the market untill early next year.
I predict a record breaking year for UK property in 2009, massive falls in price.
The real bargains will be in 2010.
2. speculatorone said...
Local agents to me are still over valuing property (at last years levels) to get them on their books, then they try to beat down the market. Problem is people then think their house is worth more than it really is.
Plus I keep hearing the comments that the Government wants borrowing back at last year's levels? How can that happen if lending is going to be more controlled? If that happens our friends the agents will be at it again & I can’t see that happening.
3. mytimeisnigh said...
Year on year asking prices for Rightmove are still only a few percent down, then according to Nationwide et al, further discount brings the sold price to 15 % below the peak prices reached in August 2007. When asking prices are down by 25% and you can then negotiate a further reduction of 20%, then this will be an ok time to buy. This could be reached at somepoint in 2010, but delaying further could secure larger discounts. The sooner sellers and estate agent realise this, the better, as there are some buyers out there that are still determined to buy and would accept a 30% reduction now. For sellers, it is preferable to sell at a 30% discount now than an enforced 40% to 60% discount later and preferable for estate agents who will secure some commission. Currently estate agents are only selling an average of one property a week and going out of business left, right and centre, is it any surprise?
4. Mrb said...
I've noticed a number of similar articles lately. It's all a bit 2006 for my money, and shows that many people and many journo's are still thinking this is a blip, that the boom will carry on. I'm thinking also of the survey last week were c30% of homowners thought their property hadn't fallen in price.
Delusion. Capitulation hasn't even started.
5. Buyinginafewyears said...
My opinion on the matter is it depends what you want to spend your money on. If you're saving for a house like me, then as long as house prices are falling relative to the pound sterling you're better off carrying on savings pounds. You'll actually be financially better off saving rather than buying all the way until the increase in house prices starts to exceed the interest you can get from a savings account after tax. I'm guessing that'll be many years in the making.
Of course you don't want to wait forever to buy a home, so what i'll probably do is watch for all of 2009 and re-assess in 2010. If at that point it's affordable to get what I want i'll buy somewhere. Even if prices fall after that it won't really matter because i'm buying to live in it rather than as an investment.
The only spanner in the works might be the devaluation of the pound. If base rates are dropped to zero and inflation kicks off then house prices might rise relative to the pound, just because the pound is becoming worthless. This will make the sheeple happy because "house prices are rising again", so I wouldn't put it past the goverment to try it. I think this is already disguising the extent of the falls. I'm sure I read somewhere that in dollar/euro terms house prices have already hit a 30% drop, but don't quote me on that!