Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008
Goodbye housing market for a good while yet...
MailOnline: House prices 'to plummet by 35%' - the biggest ever fall in Britain
The average price of a home, which was £186,000 at its highest point last October, will collapse to just £120,000
Posted by v stor @ 01:44 PM (1330 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. matt_the_hat said...
Headline - Mail editor sells remains of BTL portfolio
2. hash browne said...
Its about time we had a proper bearish story in the mainstream media. Awesome headline!
I wonder what headline the Express will use tomorrow to counter this 'negative' view.
3. japanese uncle said...
My prediction (25% drop from the peak by the end of March/09) seems destined to well hit the mark.
4. pelethar said...
Brilliant, just superb. We need to see more of this in the tabloids.
5. mark wadsworth said...
Awesome! Good find, v stor!
My fave bit is this Even building societies, which pride themselves on giving a fairer deal to their customers than banks, are ignoring the Bank's rate cut, according to the research from the financial information firm Moneyfacts
Which illustrates two points:
1. As proper building societies are financed by member's current, deposit and savings accounts, on which they expect a reasonable rate of interest (i.e. inflation plus a bit), why would BoE base rate cuts have any effect on them?
2. Cutting base rates is pushing a piece of string, as a quote elsewhere in the article illustrates.
That "60,000 falling into Nequity per month" seems about right, actually.
6. jonb said...
thisismoney, which is owned by the Daily Mail, is the one paper in the mainstream media which has been consistently bearish about house prices.
Personally, I think house prices will fall to at least £91k. That will get us back to the long term average relative to income. An overshoot to £65k is likely and it is possible that it could touch the £40k - £50k range.
7. titaniccaptain said...
I like this comment at the bottom
"there are 850,000 houses empty in the UK and thats the official figure! Strong demand indeed".....................says it all.
8. Cantonf said...
2ys forward halifax uk residential property index is around 70 bid - so it is -30% from now If yu add the -15% registered already, it makes -45% not -35%.
And I guess with unemplyments and deep recession the forward will go even lower.
So no surprise at all
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10. mark wadsworth said...
@ Jon B, I think that the market overshot in the mid-1990s, let's assume the overshoot is the same this time.
If we take the average price of £60k from 1995 and index it up to 2007 using the trusty indexation calculator, we get values between £98k and £114k.
But obviously, the bigger the overshoot, the merrier!
11. Whostolemyendowment said...
I see Phil and Krustie were pushing out the same old (and slighted dated by her 'bump') trash on RRR last night!
12. planning4acrash said...
Mark. I did a similar calculation 2yrs ago, & came up with 95-105k, personally favouring 95, but, that was prior seeing nuclear tactics by central banks that could see properties at 50k in 5yrs, some areas and sectors,like council high rise willb cashonly