Friday, Oct 24, 2008
FTSE in meltdown, and now the pound crashes
MoneyWeek: Latest: FTSE in meltdown, and now the pound crashes
As if a stock market crash, banking collapse and impending recession weren't enough, the UK is now in the midst of a currency crisis. So what does this mean for Britain?
Posted by damien @ 12:56 PM (883 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
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1. planning4acrash said...
That Basta$d Brown will try to bring on the Euro. Any mad mad would see that a hike in interest rates would save the pound
2. jonb said...
The pound is at least up strongly against the Zimbabwe Dollar. It was about $200m/£ last week, now it is around $150bn/£.
3. techieman said...
Str 2007 - in response to an earlier one - on the 10th October FP said "time to buy boys and girls" - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/10/blog-panic-spread-across-world-markets-this-morning-as-the-ftse-index-dived-in-early-trading-18091.php
I said
"TC FP is JD. Now FTSE - well I have to disagree, short term yes tis the time to buy (well at least liquidate [most] shorts) BUT we are in a downward channel, we need:
1. A retracement - maybe in the form of a triangle,
2. A new low
3. A retracement of a bigger degree than the first retracement - and if 1 isnt in the form of a triangle then this probably will be.
4. A new low lower than 2.
Now individual shares - perhaps, but this rout has a bit more to go. In any case i think the currencies are probably a safer bet....now which ones? How and why will we get a retracement now? Prob because the US will adopt the brown plan. That will be seen short term as a good thing but not for long.
When we reach the bottom (whereever that is - and lets face it no one really knows) Im not sure if its a V shape or a bobbing along at the bottom of the beautiful briny sea, type low.
FP as much as you have garnered respect here, i would ask why you believe we are at a bottom. Remember picking bottoms gives you dirty fingers!
Unless of course you meant time to buy for today or this morning - when i would concur.
Friday, October 10, 2008 09:25AM"
So from october the 10th - which was a low (3830) i was looking for a retracement - we got 4550, [not in a triangle] then a new low (3810) then another retracement (up to 4403) which i thought would probably be part of a triangle move and now ( a bit early) a new swing low (3709.... so far...), the swing low may get lower - by that i mean its only a swing low if the daily range doesnt break the prior daily range to the upside. Once the swing low is in place i am now (because of the chart pattern) 50/50 as to whether or not we get a more meaningful rally.
4. str 2007 said...
Techieman
I was under the impression from what I've read today that the bad news is upon us, the Hedge Funds are 'having' to clear out and that is what is pushing things down.
I hope you've been making money with all your accurate predictions, but with a future prognosis of 50/50 I take it your not betting now or picking bottoms !
My gut feeling is still fairly terminal for the stock market, but no doubt some apparently irrelevant droplet of news will be seized upon and all will be well again.
5. str 2007 said...
I'm sure FP's comment ''time to buy boys and girls'' was a tingue in cheek comment rather than instruction.
He never came back to qualify anything.
At least I feel vindicated today to have questioned it.
Still maybe there was a post ''time to sell boys and girls'' that I missed a week or so ago.
6. str 2007 said...
tongue - sorry for anyone trying to figure out what a tinguuu is.
7. malct said...
re ''time to buy boys and girls'' I always thought that was illegal!
8. techieman said...
str2007 - well before this move i thought there would be more sideways (WRONG!) - so no i am out at the moment (got stopped @ 4200 of the rest of my 4475 shorts after having taken some profits @ 3850). That was a silly trade but was money management rather than pattern work (on pattern work i should have re-sold there), still as i have always say it dont matter how right or wrong you are it all boils down to if you make money. Of course its easier to make it when you are right.
No generally i will be looking for some confirmation re the bottom, but i dont think we are too far away from an interim in terms of time and price. Now i dont think its the Final bottom - thats some way out i think, so your prediction of 2 something is reasonable in my mind but a bit too long term for me.
Im not sure he was being toungue in cheek actually - and to be fair that day when he posted that was a pretty robust swing low. I think its gonna get really ugly at the bottom - i mean they might ban all short sales for a while or do "something" else.
9. jack c said...
The Dow is down 5% on opening - if the rumours about GM turn to reality I expect a big downward spiral on the markets.
10. techieman said...
yep Jack c things dont look good over there locked limit down on S&P futures (E mini). Its true - obviously i would still rather be short, but im happy to be sidelined for the time being. That was a big move for me and i dont want to give some back on a whim and a prayer!
11. jack c said...
@techieman - the other thing that concerns me at the moment is the rising uncertainty of the insurers - I'm talking specifically about UK Ins Co's here - one or two people suggested to me several months ago that after the run (if thats the correct term) on the Banks the insurers would be next - rumours were circulating in the last few weeks on Pru and today FP have made a formal statement which is currently in the FT - "Friends Provident chief executive has sought to assure investors that the company is well capitalised and "immunised" against market downturns" In an interview, Trevor Matthews told BBC Radio 4 that the company does not need any extra capital.
12. techieman said...
Jack .... re FP Well they would say that wouldnt they.....Yes if pensions is the next domino then we really are in trouble. I dont think we are there.... yet....but who (apart from some of the enlightened people on here) would have thought that the banking system would be very close to capitulation. No no no its those nasty short sellers!!!!
13. techieman said...
anyway Jack you are more intune with these things than i so i defer to your judgement....
14. str 2007 said...
techieman
Thanks for the vote of confidence in my upper 2's prediction - let me know when the charts give you a timescale.
15. jack c said...
techie - the FSA is more (I believe) on the ball than it once was because of the Equitable Life fiasco and Treasury Select Commitee scrutiny etc...hence the insurers should have adequate free asset ratios however I do suspect some will need to merge and top of this list (IMO) would be FP. Furthermore I also anticipate a possible merger between Prudential and Norwich Union (and for this reason I continue to hold Aviva shares).
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