Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008
Freds got the raving...
Fred H: Foreign Press associaton news conference
Fred in glorious technicolour on the rampage. Has a "bit" of a go at Gordon. Whether you believe in LVT or not its good to watch. The video doesnt go into LVT - but just basically states that Gordon isnt a superhero and the plan wont work.
Posted by techieman @ 11:50 PM (565 views) Add Comment
10 Comments
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1. quiet guy said...
techieman,
A brilliant yet depressing posting. Now here's a line adapted from the opening sequence of the computer game 'Half-Life 2':
Wake up UK! Wake up and smell the ashes!
2. techieman said...
QG I think its interesting to see the reporters faces. They do look completely shocked by what Fred has to say. Im not sure if its because they cant believe what he says or if they dont understand it! I spose it might be because they are surprised that a non political person has what amounts to contempt for GB. I like the way he states that no its not the fault of the US, but ours. This shifting of fault is so typical of a politician and many on here (myself included) have said that he will (as any good politician does) take accolades for the "good times" - whether built on a foundation of sand aka debt - but blame someone else for the bad times. Yep without those pesky Americans I would have got away with it!
3. Vion said...
TM- yes, they laughed first and then looked shocked and only at the end, interested. But you can bet by now they will be back on the brown Bandwagon supporting his pathetic line 'no problem here, move along now'. All the journos find it easier to see the emperors fine clothes and are too scared of the reality /comfy with the arrangement to breakout. It cant last but we will be further destroyed as a nation and economy by the politicos and media cabal before it breaks. And it will be the people (sheeple) who break and bear the brunt,
Sad times, only to get sadder.
Great post, too.
4. bellwether said...
You got my expections up there quiet guy, Fred sounded quite average. After a while drawing attention to Gordon Brown with no clothes defies even morbid fascination.
5. bellwether said...
You got my expections up there quiet guy, Fred sounded quite average. After a while drawing attention to Gordon Brown with no clothes defies even morbid fascination.
6. Dbc Reed said...
Fred Harrison is hardly "raving" in this;seems quite sensible.Surprisingly so since he predicted the present crisis down to the letter.
The reference to Brown's first budget in 1997 about the dangers of house price inflation which FH does not give verbatim is: " I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery ."
So Brown was fully conscious of the dangers of HPI ( and probably land value inflation since he once shared an LVT platform with the other big beast of the LVT forest Dave Wetzel),but chickened out ,most likely because he did not fancy doing what was necessary on house prices because of the fear of losing votes.FH's plea for all -party action on LVT is therefore necessary and an All Party Parliamentary Group on LVT is a strong possibility.
7. techieman said...
bellwether - what you have to remember here is it was an edited version and his audience were Foreign. So if you write a report you have to remember who the target of that report is. Yoiu would couch it in different terms whether its an expert on the subject or "jo plumber" were reading it.
8. mark wadsworth said...
It's not a question of whether you 'believe' in LVT.
Firstly you have to understand what land values ARE (or were at least years peak). Agricultural = £1 per sq yd, typical residential £200 per sq yd, outer London £1,000, inner London up to £20,000 per sq yd.
Then you think about what drives relative values - I would suggest = value of local amenities/services + generosity of planning permission + scarcity value.
Finally, think about changes over time, over the last HP cycle, for example. As land values are a residual figure (total property value minus bricks and mortar), they actually fell 75% in the early nineties, since when they have risen five or ten fold, and are now falling again disproptionately (builders' land banks are down at least 50%, for example). This is the bubble element.
Now, we all now that higher interest rates reduce house prices. Therefore, if (at the bottom of the cycle - 1994 would have been a good time, the next opportunity will be in 2011 or so) the gummint had the commonsense to replace all property/wealth related taxes (C Tax, Business Rates, Stamp Duty, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax etc) with a fiscally neutral Land Value Tax of 5% or 10% on site-only land values, there would be little impact, winners and losers would cancel out.
In £ and pence, that would mean somebody in a little croft or an ex-council flat up North would pay £100 a year, and average family home would pay £1,000 to £2,000 a year and people in villas in Hampstead would pay £10,000 a year.
And if every year, site values were recalculated based on actual sales in preceding year, the minute a bubble started arising it would be dampened off again, as there would be a few people who don't want to pay a couple of hundred £ more just because an area is now fashionable (or whatever), so land prices and hence house prices would remain low and stable.
LVT would also be the ideal local tax - instead of being forced to pay for the COST of local services (via general taxation allocated by central government plus a top up in the form of Council Tax) regardless of their VALUE, property owners would only pay towards the VALUE of those services.
So out go 5-a-day-advisors and in come more bobbies on the beat. Out go climate change consultants and in come more lollipop ladies. Out go vanity schemes and white elephants, and in come better bus and train services. Out go sink comprehensives and in come grammar schools. And so on.
What's not to like?
9. techieman said...
hey Mark - i KNEW you would come in here. There have been many discussions with you in general on your "pet" subject. On my reading list is the Ricardos Law book but happily ive been a bit busy lately. As now i have a bit more time (choppy stockmarkets) i need to look at the book to get my head round it. Having said that i spose the ideal position to sell this idea is when we have had capitulation and nothing Gordy does has worked. if / when that happens though, the Tories will get in by default, assuming they do the matra will be the same and i spose another opportunity lost. I didnt want to comment on LVT one way or the other because as i said i dont know enough - hence the "Believe in it" comment.
I am aware of the general concept but as for the pros and cons - would be interested to comment after ive read the book.
10. mark wadsworth said...
T, it's a cracking book, but it doesn't go into practicalities. My comment above is a few hundred word summary of the whole position and deals with practicalities.