Tuesday, Oct 28, 2008
Dropping like a stone
Land Registry (pdf): House prices down 2.2% MoM, 8% YoY
For so long the Land Registry figures showed ongoing growth whilst the Haliwide indices showed prices tanking. Nice to see the 'official' government figures catching up with reality.
That's a huge monthly drop, and for the annual figure to reach -8% when it was YoY positive not so long ago is amazing.
Posted by little professor @ 11:42 AM (1840 views) Add Comment
21 Comments
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1. jack c said...
little prof - "That's a huge monthly drop, and for the annual figure to reach -8% when it was YoY positive not so long ago is amazing" - it's what you call a House Price Crash ! now where's the graph - you know everyone loves it.
2. harold said...
Yes, graph please.
3. 51ck-6-51x said...
This is THE story HPC.co.uk has been waiting for. If a market can reportedly fall that far when there is such a lack of liquidity in it is impressive.
(I saw this story on Sky News [on the TV screen here at work] and would have posted it had I not been so busy... missed opportunity, congrats prof!)
4. mark wadsworth said...
Beautiful!
We established ages ago that HMLR y-o-y change for month 3, reported in month 4 is the same as Nationwides y-o-y fall for Month 1,
i.e. HMLR September, out October should be the same as Nationwide July.
Nationwide's July y-o-y fall was 8.1%, so we're back in business.
5. hash browne said...
Yeeeee Haaaaaaa!
I wonder when the BBC will update their house price calculator? There really isn't anymore stats for sellers / bulls to cling on to! Time to wake up sheeple!
6. rm96696 said...
What will ztuart of assetz have to say? I thought that this was a standoff with prices "straightlining".
7. mark wadsworth said...
RM, they are straightlining - downwards.
8. titaniccaptain said...
2.2% m-o-m...................wow.......I knew this would start to roll in the fall............this is going to snowball.........by next autumn we will havbe seen over 4% m-o-m drops or ill eat a hat......... ok maybe not my hat but I will eat a blue stake.................
9. jack c said...
titaniccaptain - agree this will snowball - no big surprise to regulars on here but there are millions of people in the UK who are completely unaware of what's going on - once they start to feel it themselves and the job losses also snowball it will make regular reading in The Red Tops and that's when the sheeple might start to stir.
10. titaniccaptain said...
My reasoning behind my mega bear stance is simple............The banks dont want to lend to a falling housing market and to other banks they dont trust.........on top of that we have a housing market inflated by reckless lending that has now to the larger part gone.........on top of that we have an economy going into a depression by all acounts........knock on effect of which is unemployment and deflation providing they dont turn the money press onto turbo...........when a market collapses it does just that look at how far shares can fall a few days.....what was worth £10 per share can end up being £1 per share........only difference is you dont live in a share but you do live in a home whcih is going to slow the movement of the market down in comparison to other markets............
11. sold out said...
The release of this data, together with all the other data that is being drip fed on a daily basis (unemployment, repossessions,debt etc) creates a perfect negative feedback loop back to the property market. -2.2%m-o-m is that a record?
I wonder if we will see a m-o-m fall in excess of -5% soon? is that possible?
12. uncle tom said...
I have predicted for several years now that when the bubble burst, we would see an accelerating decline, a classic crash.
The events of the early 90's were a slump rather than a crash, with an initial rapid fall that then gradually slowed in pace.
A characteristic of true crashes is the over-shoot - followed by a rebound.
We're a long way from that yet..
13. jack c said...
TC - just to back up your thinking - Robert Peston was the main guest on todays BBC working lunch and the debate centred around the fact that Bank lending will remain very tight and the BOE are formally endorsing this.
14. sold out said...
rm96696,
regarding Stuart Lawz he actually predicted a 5% increase for 2008.
here is what he said in jan 08
Property investment company Assetz predicts annual growth of 5 percent due to demand continuing to outstrip supply, bolstered by strong immigration.
Chief executive Stuart Law says: "While we are currently experiencing a lot of negative sentiment in the property market, this is actually no reason to set the alarm bells ringing.
"If people look at the fundamentals it is actually very hard to find out what all the fuss is about."
For a laugh read some more expert opinion from jan 08 here
http://uk.reuters.com/article/propertyNews/idUKCAS94341120080102?pageNumber=1
15. beartil2010 said...
Lads, lads, come on - this isn't going to be as bad as the 90s!
lol
16. titaniccaptain said...
lol bertil2010
17. pelethar said...
Nice one sold out - unfortunately I think Assetz will probably go the same way as Inside Track and just vanish with very little notice at some point. We're all hoping for him to be forced to eat his words publicly but it just won't happen.
18. Aje141269 said...
We've heard all year from Sarah Beaney and that weirdo BTL couple the Wilsons that prices are still going up, hope they read this.
19. techieman said...
pelethar - you mean like Krusty? Where are the dynamic duo anyway?
20. jack c said...
@techieman - "Where are the dynamic duo anyway?" - re-training under a government sponsored scheme as debt counsellors
21. C'mon Correction said...
Wales has seen a FALL of 5.5% IN A MONTH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And a yoy FALL of over 10% !! Wow.