Wednesday, Oct 29, 2008
"British homeowners WERE paying off more of their existing mortgages than they WERE getting new ones
Sky News: Mortgage Approvals: Surprise Hike
The Bank of England said mortgage approvals rose to 33,000 last month from a record low of 32,000 in August, the first rise since June 2007. Mortgage lending last month was more than twice market forecasts - but it followed a downward revision to August which showed the first net repayment since the series began in 1993, the BoE said. // ... // Consumer credit rose by just 251 million pounds in September, the weakest rise since February 1994 - supporting anecdotal and survey evidence that consumer spending is weakening.
Posted by 51ck-6-51x @ 10:14 AM (887 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. justwatching said...
Yep, 3% up from the previous month's record LOW.
67% down on the same month in the previous year. Yep, in medgia world that translates to a slight rise.
2. mark said...
i think we are being fed BS figures to try and kickstart at dead market, this is either madness or stupidity, people cannot afford 10 times salary for a rabbit hutch to live in...
3. 51ck-6-51x said...
Indeed. Total cr4p. 80% of air time on Sky News TV seems to be devoted to Ross & Brand.
4. timmy t said...
If this is "approvals", then if someone applies for a mortgage with 5 lenders because the market is so bad, and 4 get approved, does this count as 1 (because 1 house is being bought) or 4 (because 4 lenders have said they will lend)? I would have thought that anyone serious about buying would be applying with several lenders, so if the latter applies then it's hardly positive news! Does anyone know?
5. need-a-crash said...
Does anyone know what's happened to the Nationwide Survey?
6. European-bear said...
Take a look at the calender. August this year had 20 business days. September had 22. So 1600 per day in August and 1500 per day in September. Looks like a 7% drop to me!
7. renting2 said...
"That indicates banks' mortgage lending had got so low that British homeowners were paying off more of their existing mortgages than they were getting new ones."
Does this not cause the banks etc problems under fractional reserve lending?
8. Cheekie Charlie said...
A "suprise hike" from the record low from 32000 to 33000!
9. mark wadsworth said...
@ need-a-crash, you stinker!
I'd forgotten about that, now I'm back on tenterhooks for the next few days...
@ renting2, exactly.
10. mountain goat said...
Anyone else like me think we are in for a dead cat bounce in house prices in spring/summer 2009? I recon any technical chart analysis will tell you we are over-sold right now. This crash is going to take several years IMO, and it will fall more slowly than it has this year.
11. Bear Of Little Brain said...
Umm… so what's that on a per-working-day basis? My calendar shows one more in September, and wasn't there a Bank Holiday somewhere?
12. sold out said...
Some comments from a similar piece on msn
http://money.uk.msn.com/mortgages/mortgageguide/article.aspx?cp-documentid=10490157
"The mortgage approvals data show a market bumping around on the bottom," said David Page, an economist at Investec. "This is certainly nothing like an inflection point and we see this demonstrating an economy that is severely credit constrained."
"September's household borrowing figures provide further evidence that housing activity has found a floor -- but at rock bottom levels," said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics.
Figures from the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals for house purchase rose to 33,000 last month from a record low of 32,000 in August, the first rise since June 2007.
While the figure was marginally higher than expected, approvals are running at a third of their level a year ago, suggesting further weakness in the housing market -- especially given the recent escalation in the financial crisis.
Mountain goat@12.17pm
RE dead cat bounce in spring/summer 2009.IMO there is not a chance.Interest rates can go to 1 or 2%, but unless banks change their lending criteria back to 100%LTV and to 6 times income it can't happen.I believe in 2009/10 that banks will maintain very strict lending criteria of max 90%LTV and maximum of 3 .5 x income, so there will be no dead cat bounce.House prices will have to adjust down further to suit the lending criteria of the banks.
13. shipbuilder said...
In my opinion the bounce will be no more than a temporary rise in sales or temporary slowdown of the crash. I can't see prices rising.
14. shipbuilder said...
In NI we're experiencing a supposed rise in selling numbers after a mass slashing of prices by developers for new builds - to me this may lead to a dead cat bounce when people think the market has bottomed, but I can't see an actual rise in prices as a result - too many unsold properties.
15. doom&gloom said...
hmm, dead cat bounce. actually i think this is a possibility. GB has borrowed a massive amount of money on our behalf (thanks GB), replicated worldwide, and through FRB this could re-inflate assets to some degree, houses included. There will be a significant proportion of the population who have been in a position to buy (deposit saved and still employed) but holding off, and they could be suckered in by any temporary levelling of house prices.
Once this is spent (end-2009?) we really have got nothing left in the locker, and it's doom and gloom. GB's Keynesian re-inflation response will prove ultimately fruitless and our economy will end up unsalvageable, with no reserves, plus huge unserviceable public debt on top of the unserviceable private consumer debt which we have come to know and love.