Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008
1 Comment
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1. techieman said...
Yes yes . a number of points: 1. DEflation rather trhan inflation - agreed, the stimulus might delay the onset but wont change it. 2. the V shape. I agree and actually i think once we have a retracement in Housing then a crash, we will have a V shape - or a relative V shape - no bobbing at the bottom for years, BUT how long will it be to get to that V? Longer than they think i think. 3. The extent of the falls? Well i have said before that my view is we have 40% and then it depends on the economy at that time. Well that was before all this banking stuff, so the answer has already been given - will the bailout / Nationalisations work, no but again they may prolong things. 40% falls almost certain - 65-70% yes. All in nominal terms. More than that? in real terms perhaps a bit more but then again if we are getting general deflation than real terms works the other way round. 4. Thought the stuff about China was interesting - 6% growth will feel like a recession. Interesting.