Monday, Oct 20, 2008
Armstong turning point in April 2009
Kitco: Deflation Scare the Perfect Camouflage
The US is the world’s greatest debtor. Money printing will bring on monetary inflation, which will wipe out those debts, savings, as well as the US dollar. That is the real scare that markets today, as well as foreign creditors, should be pricing in. It is only a matter of time. To borrow a line from the classic film ‘The Usual Suspects’: The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 10:07 AM (660 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
This is what Martin Armstrong said in this article
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
"In 1976, one of these 8.6-year turning points was quickly approaching (1977.05). For the first time, I began to use this model expecting a significant turn in the economy back toward inflation. My friends thought I was mad. Everyone was talking about how another Great Depression was coming. The stock market had crashed by 50% and OPEC seemed to be undermining everything. I rolled the dice and stuck to it and to my amazement, inflation exploded right on cue as gold rallied from $103 to $875 by January 1980."
2. mountain goat said...
This guy says the same "Deflation is a Non Sequitor"
3. Dr Ray said...
ho hum
I'll get my wallet out.....sigh
4. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Armstrong's low in 1977.05 was the 8.6 year low where a Great Depression was avoided.
Today the turning point in April 2009 marks a high where fear of deflation turns into the end-of-money by end of 2011.
5. mountain goat said...
S2R2 the "end of money" is that your interpretation or Armstrong's? I wonder if he meant the end of the current dollar, or perhaps a serious revaluing of the dollar, like removing one or two zero as it hyperinflates?
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
Never dissmiss the chance that a political decision has an unexpected outcome - regardless of it's original aims or whether it achieves them. My personal opinion is that the turnaround in the economy will be unexpetedly fast - there will be a (possibly small) catalyst which will trigger some decisions which flag common knowledge to the market and boom liquidity will return. the only thing is the event itself is unpredictable and, of course, if it does not occur and there is not a gradual return of confidence then very bad times lie ahead indeed.
7. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Another quote from his article
"There will be those who believe in the business cycle and use it to their advantage just as there will be those who refuse to acknowledge its existence. As long as not everyone believes, the cycle will exist forever. The regularity of the business cycle is not determined by man alone; for within its deep calculations resides the very heart of nature itself."
Is he saying the cycle will cease to exist if everyone believes in it? He claims to have backtested it to times of Babylon.
My guess is that the April 2009 turning point will gain more Armstrong supporters, and the 2011.45 one will be the long awaited turning point as the world is in the grip of turmoil. So will the 2011.45 turning point be the one where everyone believes? If so, will the PI cycle at this piont be finished?
8. sold 2 rent 1 said...
mg,
Like the article you posted
"Indeed, the money supply could grow 25-50% in less than a year if that liquidity isn't taken back."
Agreed. This is the current US M3 graph.
A nice rebound from 13pc to 16pc from the bailouts.
IR slashing to come very soon too.
Western currencies to be destroyed very soon.