Monday, Sep 01, 2008
Raw Facts Of Average House Price History
house price crash website: n/a
If you take the data from the average house price graph, There are hidden clues as to how far house prices will fall. It would appear that in both previous house price crashes that occured between 1980 - 1982 and 1989 - 1986, the period of time taken between the house prices rising from min to max and back again is roughly the same length of time. Equally, (and using unorthodox maths), both previous occurances of the prices rising and falling. the difference between the two lowest points is 15% on both occasions. Therefore I would like to be brave and forcast that the current trend will continue for the next 7 years and the house price crash will bottom out when the average house value reaches £88,000! I just hope that for once the facts do actually lie!
4 Comments
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1. Realitycheck said...
Sorry darren, but the unorthodox maths you use aren't actually connected economically to your speculation so I wouldn't get too excited. Look at the trendlines and relationship between actual/trend versus stage in the cycle and you can make more meaningful conclusions. Good luck with your forecasting!
2. Justanotherftb said...
You forgot to include inflation - maybe your estimate is correct, but when you look at a nominal house price graph the picture changes quite a bit. Look at the 90's crash, and it's a significant initial decline (the nominal crash), followed by a longer period of slow decline or stagnation (the inflation adjusted crash).
My estimate is -30% (nominal) over the next 3 years, followed by another 3-5 years of stagnation while all the baby boomers get out of property and everyone takes time to forget about the cycle. Then it will probably all start over again. Man people are stupid!
3. Werealldoomed said...
THIS IS ALL
4. Werealldoomed said...
I'LL tell you this for nothing, your all doomed..................u muppets